Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/8/24

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon gang!
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nicely, not an organized gang
12:03
Dallas: Why can’t Ke’Bryan Hayes hit extra persistently, and is there any likelihood some workforce could be keen to commerce for him this offseason?
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s a good contact hitter, however his pitch choice has all the time been reasonably dysfunctional; he’s not a Javy Baez-esque flailer, however he hits plenty of reasonably mediocre pitches and lets plenty of good ones go by
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Add in taht he has energy upside and the swings in fortune may be fairly intense
12:05
White Sox FO: What “exterior the field” supervisor ought to I take advantage of for the remainder of the season?
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Draw a random seatholder each seventh inning stretch and make that particular person the supervisor for the following sport.
12:07
Dan: Two good begins for Kikuchi after the Astros have modified his pitch utilization. Had been these calling this deal a fleece overreacting?
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The factor is, the commerce should still *might* have been greater than what was wanted to get him
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In any case, I wasn’t fairly as unfavorable concerning the commerce as some others had been. I don’t just like the prospects fairly as a lot and I appreciated Kikuchi extra (which is why I included him in my fantasy commerce piece this 12 months)
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Although I didn’t give the Blue Jays as a lot in prospects
12:12
Datt Mamon: Are you in any approach bullish on Gavin Stone transferring ahead (which means subsequent season, actually)? He appears to have hit a little bit of a wall.
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, he’s actually not *dangerous*
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: however he appears to have issues ending off batters on two strikes
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (and that is purely from my emotions, I can’t actually dig too deep within the context of a fast chat)
12:13
Matt: There’ve been plenty of complaints concerning the lifeless ball impacting offensive manufacturing this 12 months.  Do you suppose that’s true? And if that’s the case, how does ZIPS account for the lifeless ball when projecting numbers for future seasons?
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s very probably, however I don’t have ample data to say it’s true. Sadly, there’s not a lot to do; MLB has no transparency on their ball development and I’ve no approach of understanding what offense shall be like sooner or later past what it’s in recent times
12:17
Insert Witty Identify Right here: Curious to know the way a lot clout you’ve got within the baseball world. Like in the event you had one of the best concept that might save baseball, do you’ve got contacts the place you could possibly make a name to the commissioner and pitch your concept?
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Determining one’s personal repute is an unattainable activity to strategy objectively. My intestine tells me no, however I can’t be optimistic about that.
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not even certain what my repute is in the event you simply polled the smaller analytics neighborhood. I *suspect* individuals like my work and maybe dislike me personally, however I don’t actually knwo that
12:20
Visitor: CJ Abrams laughs within the face of pitch choice, turning Birdsong into Wormcophany
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: heh
12:20
Phil: Tony La Russa is ready by the telephone.
12:20
Eddie: Form of apparent NYY must be going Soto Choose 1,2 however we all know that gained’t occur. In the event that they should bat 2nd and third, would you flip them at this level?
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Given how little completely different lineups are, I’d principally put gamers the place they’re snug until the thought is ludicrous
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like if Martin Maldonado feels most comfortably main off, I don’t do this
12:21
AARON JUDGE!!: How a lot has helped his remainder of profession projections this 12 months by exhibiting that 2022 was not a fluke?
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fairly a bit, however age and harm historical past nonetheless type of maintain down these numbers
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d vote for him for the Corridor *proper now* although, based mostly on his insane peak
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He was solely 208th in HRs by 20s, which tends to maintain down the profession totals
12:25
McGraw45: All time favourite minor leaguer? Hank McGraw (Tug’s brother) is a legend in my household, who all say he was higher than Tug however groups wouldn’t promote him for being a hippie
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Luke Easter. After his MLB profession led to his late 30s, he principally mentioned “screw that” and dominated the Worldwide League for practically one other *decade*
12:25
Visitor: Is Benintendi’s future ZiPS projection now unfavorable for the rest of his profession?
12:27
Visitor: if Joe Ryan makes his subsequent begin what number of hats will Thomas Woodrooffe’s descendants eat
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (dangle on for Benintendi)
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In equity, he didn’t actually eat his hat, only a hat-shaped cake, IIRC
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It is best to by no means make bets, brags, or boasts that you would be able to’t feasibly fulfill.
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like, I mentioned I’d eat Cincinnati chili if Kyle Nelson didn’t end the season with an ERA underneath 4. I didn’t say I’d eat a 2011 Toyota Corolla.
12:28
Justin: When it comes to a making it a much less excessive setting, I all the time surprise if the Rockies would have been higher constructing Coors Area with nearer fences and a smaller outfield. Do you suppose the tradeoff between extra homers and a decrease Babip could be price it?
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m truthfully undecided what one of the best strategy is.
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The group is definitely slowly bettering, however I’ve zero religion in possession
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Bridich was nonetheless there, Brenton Doyle could be in Japan by now and Tovar blocked by Amed Rosario or somebody
12:30
#1MetsFan: Baseball is enjoyable sport. Its a possibilities wonderland, the place every pitch adjustments the stats for everyone on the sphere. That being mentioned, inform me I’m mistaken once I say the Mets will fall simply out of the wild card spot. TELL ME!
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’re a Mets fan. The Mets might have a 15 sport lead within the NL East in mid-september and your intestine would say they’ll in all probability simply lose 16 video games within the standings within the final two weeks!
12:31
Huge Mind Boy.: Cubs 9 of their final 12. Do they sneak in to the Wild Card?
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s actually POSSIBLE
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The NL Central didn’t function a ton of aggressive shopping for and the Cubs had been all the time higher than their file
12:32
Atheist Yelich: Should you had the ability to decide on the playoff format in any attainable approach (variety of groups, video games in every collection, and many others.), what format would you select that optimizes the standard of the postseason, commerce deadline, incentive for groups to attempt, and many others
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are plenty of codecs I’d favor
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However one factor I completely would do with out the most important adjustments is require the lower-seeded workforce to brush to win a 3 sport collection.
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s nothing inherently mistaken with having massive playoffs, as long as the problem of advancing within the playoffs displays the season and is massive sufficient to be significant
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You would feasibly design an prolonged playoff system by which permitting *all* 30 groups in is smart.
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not essentially a *sensible* one given time constraints although
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I completely don’t thoughts the White Sox getting a shot to topple the Phillies. However that shot must be one thing like a seven-game sweep.
12:36
#1MetsFan: And what’s for lunch.
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s not an consuming day
12:36
Visitor: You’ve been appointed new supervisor of the White Sox. How quickly are you able to be in Chicago?
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel I’d go and commit the least critical crime that might take me out of consideration for the job
12:37
Huge Mind Boy.: Ideas on White Sox firing supervisor?
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: deck chairs, Titanic
12:38
Visitor: finest pasta form aesthetically?
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: alphabet. I like consuming loopy phrases
12:39
druidiful: I do know its not you, however who ought to we inform that it seems just like the leaderboard web page isnt up to date appropriately? It’s saying that Choose solely has 38 homers and Witt has 19 after they each have extra. The participant pages are right, until you go into sport logs which have the final sport as 8/4/24.
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs twitter is normally learn fairly rigorously
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Telling me isn’t a nasty concept although, I’m probably one of many simpler individuals to get ahold of and I can convey it up on slack
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When individuals on Reddit categorical FanGraphs points, I ceaselessly convey them up
12:40
Playing cards fan: What was it that your system noticed about Masynn Winn final 12 months while you had him as huge mover ?  It by no means appeared that he confirmed in MILB what he’s exhibiting in MLB however clearly zips noticed it
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if there was something *particularly* that it noticed in him apart from the truth that he repeated the 12 months at a excessive stage whereas nonetheless actually younger in 2023
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: as in repeated his 2022 efficiency
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Even with ZiPS not going full neural community, it’s advanced sufficient that it may possibly typically be tough to all the time grok out the why
12:41
Dan’s Mother: Is Zips able to predicting MVP? In that case, does it have Choose or Witt as AL MVP.
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do have an MVP predictor, although I haven’t used it. Possibly I shoudl for Monday!
12:43
Rob: I such as you personally. They’ll go f themselves.
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m probably not THAT likable
12:43
#1MetsFan: You chop so deep together with your reality. Thanks Dan
12:43
Mike Trout: Can ZIPS estimate the chances of us each seeing a 150-game Mike Trout season once more? And would you take into account it dependable, or is the science of harm prediction not far more superior than the science of dowsing for water?
12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t do a nasty job — weirdly, from Jeff Z’s work, ZiPS truly does a extremely good job at predicting taking part in time for guys we *know* are main leaguers
12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However I’m undecided it’s THAT exact
12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I don’t actually have it configured to offer that readout simply
12:44
Adam: The White Sox had an opportunity to do the funniest factor and hearth Grifol the day they lastly gained a sport.  So shut.
12:44
Visitor: however Dan I assumed ZiPS was simply you spitballing numbers
12:46
Frank: How frightened are we about Corbin Burnes? He doesn’t appear as sharp recently (though nonetheless getting wins).
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: however I can solely communicate for myself
12:46
Native: Is there a approach to take heed to ones native workforce announcers as soon as the playoffs come or solely the nationwide broadcasters?
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel you’d have to rent them with out them violating their contracts?
12:47
captain planet: WITHOUT LOOKING: Who was the higher pitcher, Hiroki Kuroda or Daisuke Matsusaka?
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Simply Kuroda, as long as we’re speaking MLB
12:47
Visitor: even when the White Sox don’t cross the 2003 Tigers in losses, what are the possibilities they handle to do it in GB? at present 40.5 behind Cleveland; Detroit ended up 47 again in ’03
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m probably not geared up for that
12:48
Benjamin, J: Should you’re the Guardians, what prospect would you promote to supply an offensive jolt within the arm? Brito? Manzardo? Valera?
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Manzardo
12:48
I Miss Kyle in Boston: Apologies if that is doubling up my query, new to the chats and undecided if it despatched the primary time. Schwarber goes to complete his age 31 season with ~280 dwelling runs, does he have an out of doors likelihood at 500?
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I get an absurd quantity of questions, so me with the ability to unanswer defintiely doesn’t imply I didn’t see
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks he has a about 180 left in him earlier than decline takes him away, in order that’s actually sufficient to have an out of doors likelihood at 500
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (180 not together with this 12 months)
12:50
Adam: Does ZiPS have a approach to approximate an entire season out of groups given their roster development at a specific second?  In different phrases, what number of wins would the July model of the Dodgers with all their accidents be anticipated to provide over a full season?
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So long as I’ve the roster, ZiPS does that
12:50
TomBruno23: Favourite MiLBer is Ramon Sambo. Man might swipe some luggage. At the moment a coach with the Norfolk Tides.
12:50
Visitor: finest strategy for Rockies: transfer workforce to Dying Valley
12:52
2025 Orioles: Moderately, how significantly better might the Orioles lineup be subsequent 12 months (assuming Santander is retained)? They’re Prime 3 this 12 months, however there’s a hoard of younger hitters. Holliday, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, and many others. shall be one other 12 months into their careers. Or would you let Santander stroll and put your whole out there cash into pitching contemplating the entire accidents and query marks there?
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel they’re kinda close to the place they’ll probably be. When you’re this good, the danger is usually one-sided
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oh crap, I used to be speculated to do Andrew Benintendi
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: proejction
12:56
Jason N: I’ve a query impressed by Angel Hernandez.  When he retired, I learn some commentary on FG (Ben perhaps?) claiming that Hernandez was rated a mean umpire a decade in the past and it speaks to how a lot umpiring has improved.  Bought me desirous about Maddux and Glavine for some cause.  I keep in mind a lot broadcaster commentary about how they labored the surface of the zone so nicely that they usually loved an expanded strike zone because the video games went on.  In the event that they had been taking part in in at this time’s sport with these umps (and their gradual fastballs), do you suppose both of them would thrive in a contemporary rotation?
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Was he? It actually didn’t really feel that approach!
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If he’s higher than I assumed, the AI music I wrote for his retirement is actually imply.
12:58
Jon D: Pirates are a playoff workforce when? What do they should add this offseason to make your reply 2025?
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They might really need so as to add bats in free company and pay for them
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They coudl actually signal Juan Soto and have a considerably below-average payroll. They gained’t, after all
1:00
Pirates Hurdles: If Schwarbs did get to 500, he would have the bottom WAR by anybody by nearly 2 fold lower than Papi.
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Somebody’s gotta be worst at one thing
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Nick Markakis had held on a bit longer, he coudl’ve been the worst 3000 hit member
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and there’s a good likelihood that Giancarlo Stanton is definitely the worst 500 homer hitter ever
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (If schwarber doesn’t get there)
1:02
Harry: Should you had been AA how would you strategy shortstop this offseason?
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: relies upon if I can prolong Bichette
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: err
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: no
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: braves
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (sorry, I nonetheless affiliate AA with the Jays for the primary few seconds I take into consideration him)
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might go severely after Adames if I’m the Braves
1:04
Choose’s Protection: Choose is getting killed on the defensive metrics proper now. If I’m studying the participant pages proper he’s being credited for -15 UZR runs in 57 innings in proper subject. This is sufficient to give Witt the general WAR lead. What’s inflicting this? The metrics all really feel he’s significantly better in heart than proper.
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’re not studying the appropriate column
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He has -0.5 UZR at RF in 57 innings. He has -15.3 UZR *per 150 video games* in RF this 12 months, which is solely a tempo measurement
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And in any case, WAR hasn’t used UZR in just a few years
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: so even when he had been at -15 runs in 57 innings in RF in UZR, it might haven’t any impact on his WAR
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And there’s no conclusion concerning the RF/CF break up to attract since 57 innings is nearly nugatory to attract a conclusion from
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We don’t have a full profession of statcast fielding, however based mostly on UZR, the eight run distinction between his UZR/150 in rightfield (9.1) and his UZR/150 in heart (1.2) is just not noteworthy. Typical is about 10 runs.
1:08
Adam: Who’s one of the best wager for a workforce to a) miss this 12 months’s playoffs, and b) make it subsequent 12 months?  What concerning the reverse?
1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cubs in all probability for the primary one?
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The largest differential for the second *may* be the Yankees proper now, just because Juan Soto is unsigned
1:10
Dreamin: How significantly better does Ketel Marte should be than Ohtani over the remainder of the season to win the MVP?
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In all probability bit
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel lots of people are unaware simply how ridiculous Ketel’s been because the begin of June
1:11
Visitor: Why are you hanging out within the Rockies subreddit?
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I make plenty of poor selections
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that observe, it’s time for me to go out for an additional week.
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks as all the time for popping out, and I hope to see you subsequent time!
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OH CRAP HANGON
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yr BA OBP SLG WAR   2025 .260 .327 .383 0.8   2026 .257 .325 .376 0.6   2027 .258 .326 .377 0.6   2028 .252 .318 .363 0.2   2029 .249 .319 .361 0.0   2030 .226 .291 .301 -0.2
1:13
Smiling Politely: Excited to make the dwell chat!

Dan, I’m the one one left on Gavin Lux Hill, however I do know you had been there with me. Does he have a future as a optimistic platoon bat, not less than? He’s been hitting fairly nicely because the ASG, however after all, that doesn’t negate *historical past*

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel on the very least he’s complementary expertise
1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: okay, NOW I’m going

 

Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a daily visitor on plenty of radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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