| 12:01 |
: What’s a practical transfer the Royals might make to improve the offense?
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| 12:01 |
 Dan Szymborski: I don’t see a purpose the Royals COULDNT go after Santander. Or a minimum of Joc Pederson
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| 12:01 |
Dan Szymborski: and welcome to SzymChat! With me lastly completed the ZiPS prep and it rolling out, chats are again
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| 12:01 |
: Are we staring down a lockout in 2027? Missed video games?
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| 12:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Sadly, I don’t anticipate a clear CBA settlement and I feel it’s extra doubtless than not that we miss video games
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| 12:03 |
: What Nineteen Eighties participant would you be most curious about seeing how he would do taking part in in the present day?
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| 12:04 |
Dan Szymborski: I kinda need to see what younger Rickey would do with EASIER stolen base guidelines
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| 12:04 |
: simply take a gander…which crew does The Generational Juan Soto signal with?
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| 12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m gonna say Blue Jays. They’re in all probability a bit sore after shedding the LAST large fish on the final second and the place the crew is, they both must PUSH their chips or begin over.
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| 12:05 |
: Most likely random however…the premier12 baseball event has been good!
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| 12:05 |
: Dave Szymborski replace?
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| 12:06 |
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had a lot Dave Szymborski stuff these days. There was some Donald Szymborski spam about three months in the past however haven’t seen a lot since (or Gmail is filtering it higher)
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| 12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: I *do* appear to have gotten onto the VMI Alumni electronic mail listing and I’m fairly certain a D___ Szymborski must be accountable. In any case, I feel I’d bear in mind relocating to Virginia and Jesuits and army guys gown very in a different way
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| 12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: And I used to be *by no means* in form sufficient or neat sufficient or disciplined sufficient or many different issues to have been in a army academy!
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| 12:09 |
: Let’s assume the Yanks signal Soto…what different gamers do they go after? Commerce for Josh Naylor?
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| 12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: I might see them go after Alex Bregman
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| 12:10 |
: Why haven’t I already signed with the Dodgers? Let’s not waste everybody’s time
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| 12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: I th ink there’s a complete course of!
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| 12:10 |
: Considering of creating a BLT for lunch. Do you do something particular apart from the three eponymous components? (Avocado is a no go because of ripeness).
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| 12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t look after even good lettuce with bacon for some purpose
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| 12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m having a reuben variant proper now. Gruyere and for the reason that grocery retailer solely offered Russian dressing in packing containers of like 10, I needed to dump the bottle of Thousand Island within the blender and physician it up (horseradish, smoked paprika, pickled garlic)
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| 12:11 |
: Are we enlargement as soon as the brand new CBA is signed in 2 years?
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| 12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: I feel no
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| 12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: There are nonetheless a few blackmail stadiums to get out of venal, cowardly politicians
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| 12:13 |
: Tigers desperately want a RH bat with energy. Who would you be concentrating on for those who had been Scott Harris?
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| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: switch-hitting Santander in all probability. There aren’t a complete ton of OFs to select from
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| 12:14 |
: Do FIP and xFIP “maintain up” within the minors? My understanding is that DIPS relies on pitchers residing in a slim band of contact suppression. Laborious to think about that being the case within the minors, particularly under AA.
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| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: As you go down, it holds up much less and fewer. It nonetheless MOSTLY holds up within the excessive minors, as you think about
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| 12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: After we speak about issues like FIP, we’re speaking on the very elite degree of play. Within the elite group of the whole lot, there aer going to be traits current that aren’t in a non-elite group
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: In case you’re utilizing FIP in your little league crew, you’re in all probability a dumbass and doing extra hurt to the children than good
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| 12:17 |
: Are projection techniques extra correct now than they had been 15 years in the past? In that case, how a lot has statcast and comparable knowledge performed a job within the enchancment?
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is, although you’re not going to get groundbreaking modifications
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: Particularly if you discuss simply that backside line center quantity
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| 12:17 |
: Danny Zips! What does ZIPs suppose is a good deal for Soto? Does it eclipse the $600 million mark?
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| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: Final I checked, ZiPS thought 13/620
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| 12:18 |
: The worst present GM in baseball will get transported again to the 1977 to run the enlargement Seattle Mariners. How shortly might he flip that horrible crew right into a winner?
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| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: There nonetheless are a pair fairly awful GMs
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| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: And even ones that aren’t awful by saddled by awful possession, I don’t suppose the Mariners possession in 1977 will get higher too
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| 12:19 |
: Want some hope as an Angels fan. Feels just like the offseason from a number of years in the past (depth strikes like Drury, Urshela, and many others.), nothing we are able to do makes us a playoff crew however I’d even take some extra strikes to get to .500
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| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: Actually, I don’t have numerous hope to supply
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| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: Little doubt it’s in a big half the sub-mediocre possession, however the Angels simply have a tendency do a complete bunch of No matter
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| 12:22 |
: If the Marlins had been to make a “large” transfer this offseason, what do you suppose that may appear to be?
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| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: In the event that they’re feeling actually aggressive financially, they may let the entrance workplace get pizza oN Fridays
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| 12:23 |
: The Rays simply introduced they’ll play in Tampa on the Yankees spring coaching park in 2025. Was this one of the best of not many nice choices?
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| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure what different decisions they actually had. I feel even politicians would balk if groups began demanding two stadiums: one to play in and one backup stadium
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| 12:24 |
: There’s smoke on the Nationals being in on anybody from Bregman, to Flaherty, to Walker, to Santander. Do you see them making their “Werth splash” this offseason? And if that’s the case, what avenue do you suppose they pursue?
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| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: I actually don’t suppose they do something actually fascinating
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| 12:24 |
: How does ZIPS see Gerrit Cole’s efficiency sustaining as he ages given this final season price of knowledge?
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| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: Decently properly
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| 12:24 |
: Do you suppose any pitchers are getting away with overseas substances?
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| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: pitchers ALWAYS are
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| 12:24 |
: Would an enlargement metropolis desire their crew within the NL or AL?
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| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: It relies on town
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| 12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: Like I feel Portland would possibly desire to be within the AL West however some NC crew in all probability would like the NL East
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| 12:25 |
: Any bizarre park results for the A’s within the new stadium?
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| 12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m GUESSING its round impartial. Sutter Well being is principally one of many few non-crazy PCL fields
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| 12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: a minimum of among the many old fashioned PCL groups
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| 12:26 |
: Which pitch was invented most lately?
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| 12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: Relies upon what you deem to be INVENTED? Sweeper is invented as a discrete time period, however the pitch already existed
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| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: possibly the circle change? I feel Roger Craig invented the pitch
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| 12:27 |
: Any probability the depth charts taking part in time allocations may be up to date to be extra practical? They’re presently very optimistic on participant well being. I feel a 50/50 over/underneath type assumption could be extra useful.
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| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: That’s nto actually my name!
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| 12:29 |
: re CBA. I’m not certain both aspect has the abdomen to make any basic modifications after the final go spherical. It looks like a lot of the gamers’ agenda could possibly be met by one other wholesome enhance within the minimal wage and bonus swimming pools, whereas the house owners wouldn’t have to present something up besides basically a price of residing plus adjustment.
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| 12:29 |
: Thanks for the nice tip on selfmade Russian dressing. It has turn into as uncommon as vinaigrette on the grocery retailer.
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| 12:30 |
: Would you be keen to present Burnes a seven-year contract?
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| 12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: Certain
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| 12:30 |
: Would you’re taking the Dodgers over the sector to signal Sasaki?
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| 12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: Reality is, I don’t have any explicit perception into Sasaki’s needs
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| 12:31 |
: How a lot do you suppose this previous put up season will have an effect on Choose’s legacy?
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| 12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Not a lot.
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| 12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Lengthy-term, “dangerous in postseason” is just introduced up in profession discussions when writers hate a man
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| 12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: Barry Bonds WORST POSTSEASON CHOKER EVER was the storyline till 2002/2003 and everybody forgot about it
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| 12:33 |
: Within the Nineteen Eighties army academy film, the Dan Szymborski character will get out of bodily coaching and different perks because the Commandant’s right-hand man for AV and expertise, but additionally runs the black marketplace for contraband and wires a selfmade radio that will get all of the ballgames.
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| 12:34 |
: However wouldn’t simply understanding OBP whereas your league rivals bat a quick .285 OBP man leadoff get you a minimum of into the playoffs?
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| 12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: It could definitely HELP
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| 12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: but it surely’s exhausting constructing expertise with a brand new crew!
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| 12:37 |
: Bathe ideas this morning: How a few contract stuffed with participant choices to decrease AAV? I’m pondering 5 years for Yates, participant choice after annually, $8M first yr, $2M yearly after = $3.2M AAV, participant principally will get optionally available contract deferrals and crew will get an artificially low AAV.
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Beneath dedication of wage within the CBA, there’s numerous language to keep away from shenanigans like this
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: there are methods to therapeutic massage it, however there are limits
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: and if somebody finds too blatant a loophole, the commissioner has the authority to refuse to permit the contract
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| 12:40 |
: Alonso to the Pirates? Whats an affordable participant they may have a look at with phrase from possession “theyre keen to spend”
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| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: Lord, I’d hope word for the Pirates sake
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| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: not
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| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: The Mets a minimum of have the excuse that he’s been their man to overpay him. If a small market proprietor permits their GM to present $200 million to Alonso, which may be the final large contract that proprietor ever OKs
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| 12:41 |
: Odds Vientos simply had his profession season? Additionally, does ZiPS suppose he’s a viable defensive 3B for for much longer (and even now)?
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| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Fairly first rate, a minimum of on a fee standpoint. Individuals VASTLY underrate the likelihood {that a} participant merely peaks of their early to mid 20s
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| 12:42 |
: Does Tampa have comparable dimensions to YS3 (spacious heart, quick proper, and many others)? In that case, ZIPS projections for Rays will basically account for them taking part in half their video games in Yankee Stadium?
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| 12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t truly know the Steinbrenner Discipline dimensions off-hand
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| 12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: I simply realized like 10 minutes earlier than this chat that I must try this
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| 12:43 |
: Was Invoice North the worst postseason participant?
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t checked these days if anybody handed them, however as of a pair years in the past, Reggie Sanders had the worst profession WPA amongst hitters and Ed Summers amongst pitchers
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: One in every of my favourite factoids is that Babe Ruth has extra profession postseason WPA as a pitcher than a hitter
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| 12:46 |
: Dan, what is going to cease you from making enjoyable of my White Sox so rattling a lot?
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: Competence?
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: If the White Sox are good, they get these AIs: 
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: But when they’re not, they get these:
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ll throw this in simply because
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 12:49 |
: Would the Yankees have a look at Arenado as a commerce goal? I don’t suppose he matches in St. Louis anymore.
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure they’d have an interest
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| 12:49 |
: Re: Transporting a present GM again to 1977 Seattle, greatest drawback you’re going to have (exterior of physics), is the shortage of free brokers to selected from these first few years. You didn’t have 200 guys going FA yearly, and one of the best ones (Gossage, Rose), you didn’t should be a time traveler to know they had been good…
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| 12:49 |
: Sadly, the Dan Szymborski character can be the primary one killed when the terrorists take over the varsity and he tries to radio for assist.
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| 12:50 |
: that the dodgers touchdown each sasaki and (much less doubtless, however nonetheless totally believable) soto is practical is wild.
making the belief such happens, allowing flaherty and hernandez and (probably, although i believe he resigns on a pillow contract) buehler to go away would end in an approximate 40mm delta on wage, so including soto at ~47.5mm and sasaki on the posting course of would end in someplace round a 10mm enhance in wage, numerous which might conceptually be obviated if the dodgers might float the 17mm remaining on chris taylor’s contract someplace by attaching a few center prospects to it. |
| 12:50 |
: You suppose MLB would miss common season video games or simply spring coaching video games because of a piece stoppage?
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| 12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s exhausting to say. I’m not optimistic
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| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: Although one can say that to an extent, the final lockout confirmed the gamers lacked an actual abdomen for an impactful work stoppage
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| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: As a result of basically, for gamers to make features, you’re going to have some guys keen to make large sacrifices. Time at all times favors the house owners, not the gamers.
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| 12:52 |
: Does the union have any enter on gamers doing the much less conventional media stuff like on subject/in sport interviews?
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| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Quite a lot of these things is within the CBA together with BBWAA guidelines
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| 12:52 |
: Do you see the Angels signing a legit pitcher to a multi-year deal this offseason? In that case, who?
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| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Legit as in wonderful? No
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| 12:52 |
: What duties will Burnes be assigned for the seven years he’s in contract with Dan Szymborski?
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| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: He’s going to need to brainstorm wher eI’m going to provide you with $220 million
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| 12:53 |
: Are the house owners buddies?
|
| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: It relies upon
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| 12:53 |
: Crimson Sox followers lament that Yoshida isn’t match for his or her roster and must be traded. Isn’t he a poor match for anybody’s roster as a slap-hitting DH at $18MM per? Looks like he’s a tough participant to search out room for.
|
| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: Actually, his line-drivey skillset makes Fenway doubtless considered one of his finest locations
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| 12:55 |
: How would you deal with the Orioles offseason?
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| 12:55 |
Dan Szymborski: Relies on what my constraints are from possession wage clever
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: investing in a free agent is lots larger a deal than shopping for rounds for excited followers at Pickles
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: I do suppose that the O’s don’t get a prime grade this offseason in the event that they don’t find yourself with an ace-type pitcher on the prime who isn’t presently underneath contract
|
| 12:57 |
: With out moving into the main points, might you give us probably the most shocking projection ZiPS gave you?
|
| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Somewhat too quickly as I haven’t personally reviewed all 4000!
|
| 12:57 |
: I do know that normally it ‘s smarter to judge a participant with ballpark context stripped out. However for those who had been working a crew, would you ever be tempted by a participant whose explicit pluses and minuses would play up in your stadium?
|
| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: I might, but it surely must be an edge case
|
| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Like a BIG L/R park issue factor
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| 12:57 |
: AL West and East groups will play about 12% of their video games in minor league stadiums due to the Rays and Athletics. UGH
|
| 12:58 |
: Odds that the Rays play in Tropicana once more?
|
| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I feel they do, although there’s going to be numerous preventing between the crew, authorities, feds, and insurance coverage
|
| 12:59 |
: One other lockout? Missed video games?! Baseball would destroy itself….its barely hanging on within the nationwide thoughts as is with solely like 6 related groups. MLB is already behind the NFL & NBA…lacking common season video games could be disastrous.
|
| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: A late begin is probalby lots much less damaging than a midseason loss
|
| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: I doubt most wavering followers who aren’t hardcore will care THAT a lot in the event that they lose an April one yr
|
| 1:00 |
: What’s the purpose of doing crew by crew ZIPS projection artcles earlier than any main signings/trades occurred?
|
| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: They’re not explicitly 2025 previews
|
| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: And speaking about WHERE a crew presently is at all times have worth
|
| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: has
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| 1:01 |
: Does an MLB org have extra participant or non-player staff?
|
| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: non-player
|
| 1:01 |
: What do my cat buddies do?
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| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: Some leaves blew purchase, so Justinian is pondering on my workplace windowsill
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| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: I heard Constantine on the steps taking part in with this silly toy that appears like a ingesting straw that got here of their meowbox (I do know it’s him as a result of Cassie doesn’t like that toy and Mercutio gained’t put on a collar so has no jingle)
|
| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Final I noticed Cassie she was asleep within the prime shelf of the cat tree within the again room upstairs and Mercutio sleeping on prime of a pillow on the lounge sofa
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| 1:02 |
: What was your greatest change to the ZiPs components this yr?
|
| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Nothing large, I discuss abuot ZiPS within the intro!
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| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: On that word, I’ve one other ZiPS crew to complete for tomorrow, so it’s time for me to go out for an additional week!
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| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everybody
|
Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a daily visitor on quite a few radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
