The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a commerce that might ship star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in change for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round choose Cam Smith, stories Bruce Levine of 670 The Rating. It’s not but clear whether or not different gamers are concerned on both finish. There’s no indication a deal is nearing the end line.
Tucker, 27, solely just lately emerged as a viable commerce candidate. The previous No. 5 general choose broke out as an on a regular basis participant in 2020 and has since elevated himself to one of many sport’s finest younger gamers throughout. Over the previous 4 seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.362/.527 slash with 112 homers, 80 steals, an 11.3% stroll price and only a 15.1% strikeout price. A fracture in his shin price him a lot of the 2024 season, however he had his best season ever when wholesome: .289/.408/.585, 23 homers, 16.5% stroll price in 78 video games.
Tucker is a 12 months from reaching free company as a 28-year-old and is poised to command the kind of mega-contract that Astros proprietor Jim Crane has been unwilling to supply; Houston’s longest contract underneath Crane has been Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal. Jose Altuve’s $151MM extension is the most important by way of general assure. Tucker may command double that assure in free company over a considerably long run than Alvarez’s deal.
For the Cubs, including Tucker would solely additional enhance the probability of buying and selling Cody Bellinger and/or Seiya Suzuki. Tucker would supplant each in proper discipline. Chicago already has younger Michael Busch at first base and Pete Crow-Armstrong in middle discipline. Left fielder Ian Happ has a full no-trade clause. There’d be no apparent spot to play both Bellinger or Suzuki aside from designated hitter. That’d be a waste of Bellinger’s stable defensive expertise, and Suzuki has a choice to play within the discipline reasonably than slot in as a major DH. He additionally has a full no-trade clause, additional complicating issues.
The trio of gamers’ contracts are price conserving in thoughts, too. Tucker is getting into his ultimate season of membership management and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $15.8MM this coming season. Bellinger is assured a $27.5MM wage subsequent season and has a $25MM participant choice with a $5MM buyout for the 2026 season. In essence, he’s assured no less than $32.5MM for one 12 months and maybe $52.5MM over the subsequent two seasons, pending that opt-out determination. Suzuki has two years to go on his five-year, $85MM contract and can earn $18MM in every of the subsequent two seasons.
For the Astros, buying and selling Tucker can be a troublesome capsule to swallow. Crane has voiced a willingness to pay the posh tax if the fitting state of affairs presents itself however appears to reasonably clearly desire to keep away from doing so for what can be a second straight season. The ’Stros have been angling to deliver longtime third baseman Alex Bregman again into the fold, however he’s been searching for a deal north of $200MM whereas Houston’s most up-to-date reported supply was for six years and $156MM. That the Astros are not solely a right away large league choice on the sizzling nook (Paredes) but additionally a current first-round choose whose major place is third base (Smith) no less than implies some pessimism of finishing a reunion with Bregman.
That stated, the Astros even have a necessity at first base. Paredes may capably fill that position, as he’s performed all 4 infield positions all through his large league profession. He’s primarily been a 3rd baseman, however he does have almost 400 innings at first base underneath his belt. It’s no less than attainable that the Astros may use the payroll area created by a possible Tucker commerce to re-sign Bregman, play Paredes at first base after which merely be content material so as to add a participant with Smith’s general upside to the higher tiers of their system. Smith isn’t prone to be an enormous league choice till 2026 anyhow, and his bat is his calling card; a transfer to an outfield nook isn’t out of the query in some unspecified time in the future.
Paredes, 26 in February, went from the Rays to the Cubs on the 2024 commerce deadline and struggled in his new environs. The versatile slugger hit .250/.342/.488 and belted 31 homers for Tampa Bay in 2023 and regarded properly on his method to approximating that manufacturing in ’24 when he hit .245/.357/.435 with the Rays previous to the commerce. With Chicago, nonetheless, Paredes slumped to a tepid .223/.305/.307 slash in 212 plate appearances.
These struggles however, Paredes is a .234/.338/.437 hitter (123 wRC+) who’s swatted 70 homers whereas enjoying 4 completely different positions throughout the previous three seasons. He’s walked in a robust 11.2% of his plate appearances throughout that span towards a 17.3% strikeout price that’s about 5 share factors decrease than common. He’s projected to earn $6.9MM in 2025 and is underneath membership management via the 2027 season. He’d be a long-term add for the Astros who will help out at a wide range of positions and who would supply a stable bat towards righties and plus manufacturing towards southpaws (.274/.366/.456). On prime of that, he ranked third amongst all certified MLB hitters in pull share this season and posted the second-lowest ground-ball price in that very same set. An extreme-pull righty bat with that type of penchant for elevating the ball appears virtually tailored for Houston’s quick left discipline porch.
Smith, in the meantime, was simply chosen with the No. 14 choose final summer season and signed for a bonus a bit north of $5MM. The Florida State product completely torched minor league pitching with a .313/.396/.609 slash in 134 plate appearances throughout two Class-A ranges and Double-A. It was probably the greatest debut performances of any draftee and solely served to additional elevate his already appreciable prospect inventory. Baseball America ranks Smith sixth in a deep Cubs farm system that in 2024 boasted six of the sport’s prime 100 prospects. Smith will doubtless be included on a number of top-100 rankings forward of the 2025 season.
At the moment, RosterResource initiatives the Astros for a $215MM bottom-line payroll with almost $234MM of luxurious tax obligations. That leaves them about $7MM shy of this season’s $241MM tax threshold. Shifting Tucker would open up fairly a little bit of respiratory room, as would a commerce of reliever Ryan Pressly, whose identify has additionally frequented the rumor circuit this offseason. He’s owed $14MM however can veto any commerce state of affairs as a participant with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, together with the previous 5 with the identical group). Astros basic supervisor Dana Brown stated early within the offseason that his membership would possibly have to be “inventive” to deal with roster wants amid payroll uncertainty, and discuss of potential offers involving Tucker, Pressly and lefty Framber Valdez all match underneath that umbrella.
