Connor Wong Is Breaking out in Boston

The Purple Sox could by no means totally reside down the 2020 commerce of Mookie Betts, however 4 years and alter later, Boston’s final man standing from that deal is having fun with a breakout. Catcher Connor Wong simply reeled off a 17-game hitting streak that spanned 4 weeks, and even made a case for a spot on the AL All-Star workforce, although he fell brief on that entrance.

The 28-year-old Wong started his streak with a single off White Sox right-hander Jake Woodford on June 6, and added one other single off Tim Hill later within the recreation. Regardless of taking a three-day paternity depart from June 24–27, he began 16 of Boston’s subsequent 23 video games, sprinkling in 4 different two-hit video games.

Together with his single off Trevor Rogers final Tuesday, Wong prolonged his streak to 17 video games, the longest by any Purple Sox participant this season and tied for the seventh-longest of any participant this yr; Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is certainly one of three different gamers who additionally had a 17-gamer. The longest hitting streak ever for a catcher is 34 video games, set by the Padres’ Benito Santiago in 1987. The closest any catcher has come to approaching Santiago within the final decade was in 2019, when the Mets’ Wilson Ramos went 23 video games; the entire different hitting streaks by catchers of at the least 20 video games occurred in 2003 or earlier.

Wong didn’t make it that far. His streak lastly ended on July 4 in opposition to the Marlins, although to be honest, he didn’t enter the sport till the tenth inning, when he pinch-hit for Reese McGuire and struck out in opposition to Andrew Nardi. He received one other likelihood within the eleventh with the Purple Sox having taken a 4-2 lead, however struck out once more, this time versus Calvin Faucher.

Even with an 0-for-11 slide because the streak ended, Wong is hitting .310/.365/.441 (124 wRC+) with seven house runs throughout 252 plate appearances. He’s in need of qualifying for the batting title by 24 PA, however amongst hitters in both league with at the least 240 PA, solely eight have a better batting common. Inside that very same group, Wong’s OBP is sweet sufficient for twenty sixth, and amongst gamers whose major place is catcher, his wRC+ is fifth behind the Dodgers’ Will Smith (136), the Brewers’ William Contreras, the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman, and the Twins’ Ryan Jeffers (all with 128). Rutschman was voted the beginning catcher for the AL in subsequent week’s All-Star Sport, whereas Contreras will begin for the NL; each have about 50% extra plate appearances than Wong, to not point out higher defensive numbers (we’ll get to these), however that’s fairly spectacular firm.

It’s additionally miles past something Wong had carried out earlier than in elements of three seasons on the main league stage, and doubtless past something the Dodgers envisioned after they drafted him within the third spherical in 2017 out of the College of Houston. After coming to the Purple Sox together with Alex Verdugo and Jeter Downs in the reconfigured change for Betts, David Value, and money in February 2020 — a yr that he spent at Boston’s alternate coaching website and on the taxi squad with out taking part in a aggressive recreation — Wong performed six video games within the majors in ’21, after which 27 in ’22, spending the steadiness of these two seasons at Triple-A Worcester. Final yr, in his first full season within the majors, he hit .235/.288/.385 (80 wRC+) with 9 homers and eight steals over 403 PA. He entered this yr because the proprietor of a profession 77 wRC+ in 473 PA, with a frightening 33.2% strikeout fee.

The most important change for the 2024 version of Wong is that he’s minimize his strikeout fee to 19.8%; his 13.4-point drop from final yr is inside an eyelash of largest within the majors:

Wong is making rather more contact, and he’s getting a bit fortunate as soon as he does (which I’ll get to). His enchancment owes to adjustments in each mechanics and strategy. As Purple Sox hitting coach Pete Fatse defined to the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams final month, “One, there’s an emphasis on being as direct as potential along with his swing path, which has led to extra zone contact… Two, he’s balancing a extra aggressive strategy inside his recreation plan… Being ready to swing from pitch one within the space he’s wanting.”

In comparison with final season, Wong has closed his stance (although currently his entrance foot has been drifting a bit of extra outisde), bent his knees a bit extra, and raised his arms, along with his bat much less upright at the beginning of his swing. You possibly can see the comparability within the video compilation under; the primary two of those doubles had been hit final yr, the second two are from this season, all at Fenway Park, which ought to support as a visible reference level:

At Scout Woman Report, Andrea Arcadipane has a extra detailed visible breakdown highlighting different adjustments, together with Wong’s elimination of a toe faucet and higher weight distribution on his entrance foot.

Whereas Wong’s total swing fee has barely budged from final yr’s 52.3%, he’s minimize his chase fee from 35.2% to 29.5% whereas elevating his in-zone swing fee from 68% to 73%. His total swinging strike fee has dropped from 15.7% to 13.2%, and his whiff charges in opposition to nearly each pitch kind have dropped; consequently, his efficiency in opposition to every pitch kind has improved. Right here’s the broad-strokes image:

Location-wise, right here’s a comparability between 2023 and ’24; Wong’s swinging extra typically at pitches from the center of the strike zone in, and from the center down:

Word that whereas Wong has minimize his chase fee in all 4 quadrants, he hasn’t actually laid off pitches within the higher or outer thirds of the strike zone to a considerably larger diploma than earlier than. Even so, he’s doing a lot much less harm in these areas, and extra within the center, middle-in, middle-down, and down-and-in places:

Going again to the desk above, you might have seen that Wong’s exit velocities are nothing to put in writing house about, and likewise that he’s considerably outperforming his anticipated outcomes. For all of his success, he’s really not hitting the ball laborious as typically as final yr:

Wong’s barrel fee is lower than half what it was in 2023, and locations him in simply the seventeenth percentile, along with his common exit velocity (14th percentile) and hard-hit fee (twenty third percentile) in related territory. It’s not like he’s Luis Arraez both, making up for a middling common exit velocity and/or barrel fee with a excessive candy spot proportion or a excessive fee of squared-up swings. Wong’s 27.6% candy spot proportion locations in simply the sixth percentile, and whereas his 72.1 mph common bat pace is above common, his 23.1% fee of squared-up balls per swing is down within the twenty eighth percentile.

In different phrases, Wong isn’t precisely pummeling his method to that 124 wRC+. Reasonably, he’s dinking and dunking in hits right here and there, utilizing the entire area extra typically than final yr; his pull fee has dropped from 45.6% to 38.7%. He’s bunted safely 3 times, overwhelmed out 4 infield hits due to his 78th-percentile dash pace, and snuck a complete bunch of balls by means of the infield. Try the spray chart:

Wong’s 61-point hole between his batting common and xBA is the very best amongst Statcast qualifiers (2.1 PA per workforce recreation); in the meantime, his 66-point hole between his slugging proportion and xSLG is twelfth, and his 48-point hole between his wOBA and xWOBA is sixth. All of which is to say that what he’s doing doesn’t seem like all that sustainable, besides, you’ll be able to see in evaluating his 2023 and ’24 numbers that he’s raised his baseline sufficient to be an above-average hitter for a catcher — and people aren’t precisely rising on bushes nowadays.

As for Wong’s protection, it’s a blended bag, which might not be too shocking provided that he didn’t begin catching often till his sophomore season at Houston, and continued to play a good bit of second and third base whereas within the Dodgers’ group. He’s thrown out 25% of would-be base thieves, a four-point enchancment relative to final yr and two factors forward of the league common. By FanGraphs’ methodology, his framing has improved from -9.6 runs in 944 innings to -1.1 runs in 471 innings; by Statcast, he’s gone from -5 runs to -3 runs, which really prorates as a decline on a per-inning foundation. Statcast can be down on his pitch-blocking (-2 runs in each seasons), along with his eight blocks under common within the “straightforward” class this yr protruding like a sore thumb. His -6 FRV by way of Statcast is the majors’ second-lowest mark amongst catchers, forward of solely the Padres’ Luis Campusano (-9) and tied with the Astros’ Yainer Diaz. By comparability, McGuire grades out as common by our framing numbers and one run above per Statcast, with 1 FRV total in 327 innings. Nevertheless, McGuire has hit for only a 64 wRC+, and by way of WAR, Wong has a 1.6 to 0.1 edge.

The Purple Sox are hardly disenchanted in Wong’s protection. Catching coach Jason Varitek lately praised Wong’s protection to the Globe’s Peter Abraham:

“On the catching finish, he’s not younger in age however he’s younger in reps… He has an inherent ability about him that makes him particular. You hope that in everyone’s profession, yearly you get higher. It’s been a pleasure to look at and be part of.”

…Varitek doesn’t suppose [the framing statistics are] totally correct, mentioning the numerous variables that have an effect on framing. The Sox really feel Wong’s framing has been higher than the statistics point out.

“He’s enhancing his consistency and being able to self-adjust throughout a recreation,” Varitek mentioned. “These are good factors. We proceed to work on these issues as a result of he desires to be nice at every part.”

Varitek additionally identified that shorter catchers — Wong is generously listed at 6 ft 1 inch — are likely to have decrease grades.

I’m unsure if that final assertion is true, however regardless, I do suppose Wong deserves to share within the credit score for a workforce that ranks seventh within the majors in ERA (3.62) and fifth in FIP (3.71). The rotation and bullpen each projected to rank twentieth in WAR of their respective classes in our preseason Positional Energy Rankings however as an alternative are eighth and third within the majors, respectively.

As for the AL All-Star workforce, Wong misplaced out to Salvador Perez for the backup spot behind Rutschman, with super-duper utilityman David Fry — what else are you able to name a man who catches and performs the 4 corners as properly? — chosen as properly, although he was listed on the ballots as a DH. It’s potential Wong might be part of the workforce as an harm alternative, although that most likely relies upon upon a type of three gamers needing to forgo the sport.

Past that, Wong’s present success isn’t more likely to salvage the Betts commerce, however with 1.6 WAR thus far, he’s received an excellent likelihood of delivering the very best season of any participant the Purple Sox acquired in return, with Verdugo’s 1.9 WAR from 2021 a slightly unimposing complete to beat. In contrast to Verdugo, who was largely a disappointment in Boston (and has tailed off considerably after a promising begin in New York), Wong has panned out higher than anticipated, and he’s nonetheless received loads to provide to the Purple Sox.