Since Josh Naylor didn’t signal an extension with the Guardians throughout his pre-arbitration years, it has at all times appeared like there was a ticking clock on the primary baseman’s time within the Cleve. With the exceptions of Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco agreeing to below-market extensions to stick with the franchise, a have a look at Cleveland’s extension historical past over the past 17 years (hat tip to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker) reveals the easy reality that the Guards just about by no means signal gamers to long-term extensions for important salaries as soon as they get inside a 12 months or two of free company.
Naylor is now getting into his last season of crew management, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM wage in his final journey by the arbitration course of. It’s a pleasant increase from his $6.5MM wage in 2024, and since arbitration calculations are likely to closely weigh conventional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely money in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.
A peek on the extra superior metrics is a bit more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was stable however not fairly elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023. That prior season noticed Naylor take pleasure in a .326 BABIP, whereas the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP. Most of Naylor’s manufacturing additionally got here within the first three months of the season, and it might be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor sporting down because the 12 months progressed. On the plus facet, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast classes, and he was a much more affected person hitter than in years previous, with a 9.2% stroll fee that can be a profession finest.
All this being mentioned, even “solely” a repeat of his 2024 season ought to put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a profitable free agent deal when he reaches the open market subsequent winter. It additionally very seemingly places him out of Cleveland’s value vary over the long run, and fairly probably even for the 2025 marketing campaign.
The Guards had some elevated attendance at Progressive Discipline in the course of the common season and so they obtained a pleasant income enhance from internet hosting six playoff video games, but the group may even expertise some stage of dropoff of their broadcasting {dollars}. MLB itself will now be dealing with the native distribution of Guardians video games after the Diamond Sports activities Group backed out of its unique contracts with the Guards and 10 different groups, which signifies that the Guardians will obtain some however not all the broadcast income they’d’ve acquired beneath the phrases of their earlier deal.
In a world the place the Guardians had been nonetheless getting all of that TV cash, odds are Naylor would nonetheless have been traded, simply because that’s how the Guards have historically executed enterprise. And naturally, it isn’t an absolute assure that the primary baseman will probably be on the transfer this offseason. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti may not discover a proposal to his liking, or possession may approve a barely greater payroll to make one other run with what appears like a profitable core. Naylor may then be shopped on the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in rivalry, or saved by his final remaining season of crew management after which very seemingly let go in free company. That latter state of affairs would a minimum of put Cleveland in place to land a draft choose as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying provide and signed elsewhere.
Promoting excessive on Naylor this winter would possibly land greater than only a draft choose, nevertheless. Naylor’s identify has already surfaced in previous commerce rumors, because the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor final winter. Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch in all probability takes them out of the working, but Seattle and Pittsburgh are each nonetheless concentrating on first base assist, and offensive assist in basic.
Whereas neither the M’s or Pirates are anticipated to be massive spenders in free company anyway, Naylor stands out as a serious backup plan for any crew that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the 2 largest first basemen on the free agent market. For one 12 months and round $12MM, Naylor isn’t an enormous splurge even for smaller-market golf equipment, or golf equipment just like the Guardians who’re going through broadcasting considerations. Broadly taking a look at groups who’ve a transparent or potential want at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former crew) may be a part of the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors. The Tigers or Royals may additionally technically match on this checklist however Cleveland is much less more likely to transfer Naylor to a division rival.
Because the Guardians have a variety of uncertainty of their beginning rotation subsequent 12 months, groups which have pitching to supply may need a leg up in commerce talks. The Guards’ typical tactic of pursuing a minimum of one prospect and a minimum of one speedy MLB-ready participant in trades might be restricted by the truth that Naylor is just managed for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets in the course of the 2020-21 offseason.
There’s additionally the matter of how the Guardians will exchange Naylor of their lineup. Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a possible lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Main League PA this season. The Guards could be assured sufficient in a mix of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base within the occasion that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran might be acquired to offer extra depth. It will probably simply be argued {that a} Guardians crew even with Naylor again remains to be in want of extra offense, so buying and selling Naylor may put Cleveland in want of discovering a fair larger bat for the outfield.
The trade-and-replace routine has develop into acquainted through the years in Cleveland, and the fanbase would possibly grit their enamel on the concept of dealing away one other distinguished participant for payroll-related causes. Shifting Naylor specifically has a singular layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably stay on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking apart the enjoyable concept of a household connection on the coronary heart of the lineup.
Nonetheless, the Guardians’ tactic of buying and selling gamers relatively than simply letting them stroll in free company has allowed the membership to repeatedly reload each the farm system and the energetic roster. Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless observe document together with his offers, but Antonetti’s excessive batting common on the commerce market has helped the Guards submit profitable data in 10 of the final 12 seasons, with seven postseason journeys in that span. Discovering the best match on a Naylor commerce this winter would possibly end in Cleveland getting again to the playoffs subsequent fall.
