When Brandon Lowe was wholesome in 2020 and ’21, he was arguably the very best second baseman in baseball. The Rays slugger led major second basemen in house runs, RBI, OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR over these two seasons. Sadly, he has missed vital time with varied accidents in every of the three years since. When he takes the sphere, nevertheless, Lowe continues to be a extremely productive participant. He launched 21 homers in 107 video games this previous season whereas producing a 123 wRC+ and a couple of.2 fWAR. His .350 xwOBA ranked within the eighty fifth percentile of main league hitters.
Earlier this month, Tampa Bay picked up a $10.5MM crew possibility for Lowe’s companies in 2025, relatively than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him off to free company. The Rays could be notoriously close-fisted, however nonetheless, there was little doubt they’d train the choice. A internet $9.5MM is a cut price for a participant like Lowe, even when he sits out a 3rd of the season with accidents as soon as once more. That being mentioned, a $10.5MM wage places Lowe in a tie with Jeffrey Springs for the very best paycheck on the membership subsequent yr. To place it one other method, it’s roughly 12% of the crew’s estimated payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource). Thus, it’s greater than truthful to surprise if the Rays would relatively unfold that cash throughout a number of roster spots relatively than give all of it to at least one injury-prone participant. In different phrases, it’s truthful to surprise if Lowe will probably be carrying a brand new uniform by Opening Day subsequent March.
Tampa Bay has an extended observe of buying and selling veteran gamers as soon as their salaries begin to improve, even when the crew continues to be planning to contend. Because the Rays enter the 2024-25 offseason coming off their worst end since 2017, and coming off a season wherein they bought huge on the commerce deadline, it appears much more plausible that they’d think about buying and selling Lowe. Moreover, the Rays have a number of inside choices who may exchange Lowe within the lineup (even when they will’t essentially exchange his manufacturing). One in every of Junior Caminero or José Caballero may doubtlessly slide over to second base, whereas Christopher Morel may slot in for Caminero at third base or Taylor Partitions may exchange Caballero at shortstop. Former prime prospect Curtis Mead is one other infielder to bear in mind.
Then once more, the truth that the Rays didn’t commerce Lowe eventually yr’s deadline might be a sign that they’d like to carry onto him for 2025. In spite of everything, they could be low cost, however in addition they love a superb worth play. If the Rays store Lowe round and are available to the conclusion that he’s severely undervalued across the league, they could desire to carry onto him.
Again in August, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola advised Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Instances, “I don’t suppose the trade and even our personal followers perceive the impression [Lowe] makes in our lineup.” If president of baseball operations Erik Neander shares that opinion, he could be hesitant to half along with his All-Star second baseman. Neander lately expressed confidence in Lowe’s bat and glove, telling Topkin, that Lowe is “most dear” as a second baseman however that the crew may proceed to offer him a while at first base and DH subsequent season to have his highly effective bat within the lineup as typically as potential.
It’s additionally price mentioning that Lowe has one other crew possibility for 2026 (valued at $11.5MM with a $500K buyout), which suggests Tampa Bay may preserve him round for the beginning of subsequent season and nonetheless have the flexibleness to commerce him at a later date. What’s extra, the Rays have quite a few different commerce candidates on the roster. Lowe isn’t the one participant they will flip in the event that they’re going through stress to chop payroll in mild of the harm to Tropicana Subject or the crew’s present lack of a broadcast deal.
First baseman Yandy Díaz and nearer Pete Fairbanks are two of the highest 10 gamers on MLBTR’s checklist of the prime 35 commerce candidates of the offseason. Díaz (no. 5) will probably be making $10MM subsequent yr, and he has a $12MM crew possibility for the next season. His contract additionally features a $1MM commerce project bonus. Fairbanks (no. 7) is about to gather $3.67MM in 2025, and he has a $7MM membership possibility with a $1MM buyout for 2026. Yet one more title to bear in mind is Zack Littell. He doesn’t have the identical star energy as Díaz and even Fairbanks, however he has confirmed himself to be a succesful mid-rotation starter over the past yr and a half. He made simply $1.85MM this previous season, however he’s projected to earn near a $3MM elevate in his remaining yr of arbitration eligibility.
One other issue to contemplate is the marketplace for second baseman this offseason, each when it comes to free brokers and commerce candidates. Solely two of MLBTR’s prime 50 free brokers are major second basemen: Gleyber Torres (no. 20) and Hyeseong Kim (no. 26). One may simply think about why groups would like Lowe over both of them, particularly on such a team-friendly contract. Nevertheless, issues may get extra sophisticated if any groups are critically pursuing Alex Bregman (no. 3), Willy Adames (no. 5), or Ha-Seong Kim (no. 43) to play second base. Ha-Seong Kim was a major second baseman as lately as 2023, whereas each Adames and Bregman have expressed a willingness to modify positions.
As for the commerce market, second basemen who might be on the transfer embrace Luis Arraez (no. 17 on MLBTR’s prime commerce candidates checklist), Brendan Donovan (no. 20), and Nolan Gorman (no. 21). Nevertheless, none of these gamers appear notably more likely to be dealt, and so they all fill totally different niches than Lowe. Funnily sufficient, all 4 bat left-handed, however Lowe is the one one who presents confirmed, middle-of-the-order energy in opposition to each left- and right-handed pitching.
So, do you suppose the Rays will maintain onto Lowe this winter? Or will they’ve a brand new second baseman on Opening Day 2025? Have your say within the ballot beneath!
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Picture courtesy of USA Right now Sports activities.
