Cody Bellinger has one of many extra important opt-out choices of the offseason. The Cubs middle fielder/first baseman must determine whether or not to bypass the remaining two years and $50MM on the three-year, $80MM contract he signed late final winter. If he foregoes this yr’s opt-out, he’d have one other out clause throughout the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20MM left on the deal).
Final weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA In the present day wrote that Bellinger was “absolutely anticipated” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t appear to be set in stone, nevertheless. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported this night that Bellinger has but to determine whether or not he’ll check the market.
Bellinger is wrapping up a stable if barely disappointing yr. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 dwelling runs over 545 plate appearances. He has primarily maintained the career-best pure contact potential that he confirmed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his journeys this yr, marginally greater than the 15.6% strikeout charge he managed throughout his first season on the North Facet.
The downturn has been in his energy output. Bellinger had eight extra dwelling runs and 13 further extra-base hits a yr in the past. He has one other week so as to add to this season’s totals however isn’t going to make up that a lot floor. His slugging share is down greater than .090 factors from final yr’s wonderful .525 mark. The sustainability of final yr’s energy manufacturing was at all times the largest query. Bellinger acquired to his spectacular 2023 output regardless of a below-average 31.4% onerous contact charge and 87.9 MPH common exit velocity. This yr’s batted ball metrics are equally middling and the outcomes have certainly regressed.
There’s nonetheless nonetheless rather a lot to love within the profile. Bellinger has confirmed to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s one other season faraway from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him earlier than his remaining arbitration yr. It’s protected to say that his 47-homer MVP kind isn’t coming again, however Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s nonetheless able to enjoying middle subject, though the Cubs have used him more and more in proper subject and at first base.
Bellinger has graded as a mean defender in a bit greater than 400 middle subject innings. He has posted related marks in additional than 350 innings in proper. The Cubs’ greatest outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in middle. One other group may give Bellinger extra constant reps up the center for at the very least a season or two.
The 2-time All-Star stays one of many youthful potential free brokers within the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s greater than a yr youthful than Harrison Bader, who’d most likely be the highest middle fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s almost a yr youthful than Anthony Santander and about the identical age as Tyler O’Neill. Whereas there’s a good quantity of nook outfield expertise — headlined, after all, by Juan Soto — the middle subject class is just not sturdy. Bellinger declined a qualifying provide final winter and is not eligible to obtain one, so there’d be no draft choose forfeiture this time round.
That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and first rate all-around manufacturing, he’d have a good argument for a four- and even five-year deal. If he merely needed to maximise the assure, he shouldn’t have a problem beating the $50MM remaining on his present contract. That’d require taking a paycut subsequent season although. Bellinger wouldn’t match subsequent yr’s $27.5MM wage on an annual foundation over 4 or 5 years.
If Bellinger and his camp on the Boras Company count on his energy to rebound, bypassing the opt-out could be the possible determination. He’d have one other likelihood to retest the market prematurely of his age-30 marketing campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago could require enjoying proper subject for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, although, doubtlessly elevating questions amongst different groups about his long-term viability in middle subject.
From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would most likely be the higher end result. That’d allow them to play Seiya Suzuki extra steadily in proper subject as a substitute of limiting him to designated hitter — the place he’d have to play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s sturdy yr lessens the necessity to have Bellinger round as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, within the bullpen and behind the rotation.
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