4 the reason why we may be overreacting to no Cinderella groups advancing to the Candy 16.
Yearly there’s a storyline that develops from the primary week of the NCAA match that dominates the nationwide sports activities dialog for these three days that separate the second spherical and the Candy 16. Sometimes, play resumes on Thursday, the main target returns to the courtroom, and the “massive story” from the week earlier than morphs into limitless discussions in regards to the Remaining 4 earlier than it disappears endlessly.
This 12 months’s first week massive story could have a bit longer of a shelf-life.
The subject, in fact, is NIL and the switch portal eliminating Cinderella groups from the dance, and the ensuing query of whether or not or not she’s ever going to return.
Contemplating the outcomes of the primary week, the dialog was unavoidable.
Not solely did energy convention chalk reign supreme throughout the match’s opening week, nevertheless it do at a historic stage.
Each prime 4 seed superior out of the match’s first spherical for the primary time since 2017 and simply the fourth time within the fashionable period of the occasion. The common margin of victory within the spherical of 64 was the very best of all-time.
The insanity solely bought extra predictable within the second spherical, with zero groups seeded greater than tenth advancing to the match’s second weekend for the primary time since 2007. Energy convention groups characterize the whole thing of the Candy 16 for the primary time ever, and a report low of solely 4 complete conferences (the 4 strongest) are represented within the second weekend. The earlier low was seven conferences.
The Huge Ten received its first 10 video games of the match. No convention had ever executed that earlier than. The SEC despatched seven groups to the Candy 16. No convention had ever executed that earlier than.
Put merely, the haves of the game have dominated this 12 months’s match at ranges beforehand not seen.
The simple conclusion from all of that is additionally the best: Two conferences have extra money than any two conferences have had within the historical past of faculty sports activities. The monetary hole between the ability conferences and the mid/low main conferences has by no means been this massive. And the brand new switch and NIL guidelines open the door for the colleges with all the cash to have the perfect gamers, the perfect coaches and the perfect every little thing else on an annual foundation.
TLDR: The Cinderella is already lifeless. The 2025 match is simply the primary time everybody might see the corpse.
The concept that a number of SEC vs. Huge Ten regional semifinals and the closest factor to a Cinderella being a bunch of former 5-stars coached by John Calipari goes to be the brand new regular in school basketball could wind up being totally correct. However let’s take a look at the the reason why possibly that is an overreaction.
Purpose 1: It’s one 12 months
Positive, the portal and NIL have grown more and more extra vital since their inception, nevertheless it’s not like they weren’t across the earlier two years.
We’re just below 24 months faraway from watching a Fifth-seeded San Diego State staff from the Mountain West and a Ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic staff from Convention USA battling it out within the Remaining 4. That match additionally noticed the second 16 over 1 upset within the match’s historical past, Furman stun Virginia on the buzzer within the first spherical, and 15-seed Princeton crash the Candy 16.
A 12 months later, we had Yale, Grand Canyon, James Madison and Oakland pull first spherical stunners. Three of these 4 coming in opposition to energy convention opponents.
Possibly we have to look forward to proof past a single match to attract any sweeping conclusions about the way forward for March Insanity on this new period.
Purpose 2: It’s as a lot about convention consolidation as the rest
Loads has been product of simply 4 conferences being represented within the match’s second weekend. That’s comprehensible. The truth that the earlier report low was seven is jarring.
It’s additionally vital to notice that simply 4 conferences being represented can be at the very least partially as a result of most up-to-date serving to of convention realignment.
Two years in the past, BYU was a member of the West Coast Convention. Two years in the past, Houston was a member of the American Athletic Convention.
Each these packages, significantly Houston, have been doing fairly nicely of their outdated properties.
Purpose 3: One shot, one inch, one name can change a whole narrative
The “Cinderella is lifeless” speaking factors beforehand laid out scream fairly loudly.
Nonetheless, think about a world the place Maryland’s Derik Queen’s final second shot is 5 inches greater and it clangs off the rim as an alternative superbly banking via the web (or … and don’t throw something at me right here … he’s known as for touring). On this very life like world, Colorado State’s presence instantly eviscerates the “no staff seeded worse than tenth” and “no staff from a non-power convention” speaking factors.
It’s nonetheless a chalky match, little question, however the “we’ve seen the top of main upsets on this occasion” speaking level loses just a little steam.
Purpose 4: This isn’t fairly as irregular as everyone seems to be making it out to be
Once you hear “first match with no mid-major staff within the Candy 16 in a billion years,” certain, it’s an consideration grabber.
Once you look just a little bit nearer and see that the one “mid-major” within the second weekends of the 2016 and 2017 tournaments was Gonzaga, and that the one “mid-majors” within the second weekend of the 2019 match have been the Zags and Houston, nicely, it resonates a bit much less.
The massive guys are dominating the second weekend this 12 months, however the massive guys have dominated the second weekend in most years.
One last item, simply because we didn’t have a 13 via 16 seed advance this 12 months doesn’t imply that the little guys struck out fully. This match nonetheless noticed two groups from the Mountain West advance in the identical 12 months for the primary time since 2010, it noticed McNeese State from the Southland topple Clemson from the ACC, and it noticed the Missouri Valley’s Drake Bulldogs take down Missouri from the large, unhealthy SEC.
Some years the insanity is just a bit extra sane than others.
Is Cinderella actually lifeless? Possibly. There’s actually proof to help the idea. However that proof is basically rooted within the outcomes of 4 days of basketball.
Possibly she’s simply taking a breather.
