Checking In on Free Agent Contract Predictions

As of the time I’m writing this text, roughly half of our High 50 free brokers have signed new contracts this offseason. That feels like a good time to try how the market has developed, each for particular person gamers and total positional archetypes. For instance, beginning pitchers have been all the trend up to now, or so it appears. However does that match up with the information?

I sliced the information up into three teams to get a deal with on this: starters, relievers, and place gamers. I then calculated how far off each I and the crowdsourced predictions have been when it got here to common annual worth and whole {dollars} handed out. You possibly can see right here that I got here out very barely forward of the pack of readers by these metrics, not less than up to now:

To be truthful, none of us have finished notably properly. The final two years I’ve run this experiment, I missed by round $1 million in common annual worth, and the group missed by between $1 and $2 million. Likewise, I’ve missed by roughly $10 million in common annual worth per contract, with the group round $18 million. This yr, the contracts have been longer than I anticipated, and richer than you readers anticipated, although you probably did a a lot better job on a relative foundation when it got here to predicting whole greenback outlay. We have been all low on each class, although, throughout the board.

That’s not the one manner of issues, although. Should you’d like, you possibly can deal with absolutely the worth of misses. For instance, take into account my projections for Juan Soto and Willy Adames. I predicted a median annual worth of $48 million for Soto, $3 million too low. I predicted a median annual worth of $29 million for Adames, $3 million too excessive. Out there for hitters as an entire, I used to be bang on – however I missed by $3 million in every case, merely in reverse instructions. Absolute worth every part, and our common misses look near equivalent – my idiosyncratic changes from common haven’t finished me any good. It’s finished me loads of hurt, in reality, because of Gleyber Torres’s pillow contract:

I believe that these conclusions alone are fairly attention-grabbing. The most important factor that’s gone on this winter is that contract common annual values have been a lot greater than anticipated. Don’t beat your self up over that miss, crowd, since you’re not alone. I collected predictions from three different main retailers, and so far, we’re each doing higher than that management group when it comes to getting AAVs proper. The image is much less clear in relation to whole assured {dollars}; we’re each center of the pack there.

The purpose of all of this knowledge crunching: If there’s one factor to say about this yr’s free company class, it’s that gamers are getting extra per yr, and extra total, than the previous couple of years have conditioned us to anticipate. I’m unsure why that’s the case, and I’d additionally like to attend till extra of the highest free brokers have signed to get a greater learn. It’s not less than possible, although I haven’t examined this speculation but, that the free brokers who signal earlier within the offseason are those whose market exceeded everybody’s expectations, their very own included, and that the remainder of the winter will deliver values down considerably.

It’s additionally possible that all of us simply missed, interval. Baseball is an ongoing, booming enterprise. Some latest offseasons have featured enormous uncertainty – post-COVID hangover, CBA negotiations, unsure way forward for sports activities networks, and so forth. This yr, that’s largely previously. The TV community fallout continues to be ongoing, however groups on the very least have extra certainty about what is going to occur. Maybe being barely extra assured sooner or later is main groups to spend more cash within the current.

One other chance: Soto’s contract simply broke issues. Take away Soto’s contract, and everybody’s whole greenback assure predictions enhance markedly. Right here’s a Soto-less desk:

Now we’re actually cooking. I believe it’s on the very least defensible to deal with Soto’s contract individually from the remainder of the market. It’s bizarre to lump Paul Goldschmidt’s one-year deal and the most important contract in skilled sports activities historical past collectively in relation to grading forecasts; they’re clearly completely different animals.

Should you exclude Soto, one other sample emerges: Each units of predictions fared fairly properly on common annual values given to marquee free brokers, however missed the size of those offers, typically significantly. However, each units of predictions have been fairly good at mid-tier free brokers, the kinds who populate the again finish of the highest 50. This is sensible to me – we’ve much more knowledge factors on guys like these. What do getting older first basemen get? All of us principally know. Tandem catchers? Platoon DHs? Non-closer relievers? Ditto. We all know how the sport values these gamers, and due to this fact, their contracts are simpler to estimate. Max Fried’s deal has far fewer comps, simply by the character of how few gamers are nearly as good as him after they attain free company.

Might the information be used to additional enhance contract predictions? In principle, that’s what’s already occurring, nevertheless it didn’t precisely assist me this yr. In truth, I spent fairly some time making an attempt to regulate my preliminary projections for this yr downward. They only didn’t match up with the previous two years of outlays, even after adjusting for the caliber of gamers hitting free company this yr. Ultimately, I adjusted my estimates down a bit however left them a lot greater than final yr’s. It seems that lots of you probably did the identical. That labored out fairly properly – a market-based estimate that anchored closely on final yr’s contracts would have finished fairly poorly this time round.

One frustration I had in working up the information: I wasn’t positive tips on how to deal with contracts the place we ended up with markedly completely different predictions for size relative to the precise contract signed. Contemplate making a one-year, $20 million prediction for a participant who finally indicators a three-year, $30 million deal. It’s unusual to view that as a low estimate for whole {dollars}. If something, it looks as if too excessive an estimate. You’d suppose {that a} participant who might make $20 million in a single yr might most likely exceed $30 million for 3 years, so when he indicators that three-year, $30 million deal, it feels such as you overestimated his worth.

I’m engaged on some kind of approach to normalize contract predictions to the precise size signed. I need it to be goal, constant, and primarily based solely on the precise contract gamers signed, quite than utilizing projections or something like that. In different phrases, I desire a easy perform that interprets each prediction with out realizing something in regards to the precise participant, strictly the contract I (or the group) predicted and the one they really signed. I’m brewing up just a few concepts, however you probably have any, please be at liberty to drop them within the feedback right here or notify me nevertheless you’d like – Bluesky, Twitter, my chat, yelling at me while you cross me on the street, no matter tickles your fancy.

Lastly, some takeaways in bullet level type:

• Pitchers are getting paid this winter.
• Soto set a brand new customary for contracts, and nobody noticed the precise extent of his deal coming.
• The primary few contracts signed have been all a lot greater than predicted, however these few free brokers may need set the excessive water mark for this yr.
• There are nonetheless 20ish offers left to signal for the needs of this train.
• Give your self a pat on the again – you, the group, did very properly in predictions.
• Additionally give me a pat on the again for the perfect AAV predictions, and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN a pat on the again for the perfect whole contract worth predictions.
• Lastly, verify again within the spring for a fuller accounting of how issues turned out.