Catching up on the Zips High 100 Prospects

All-Star Week is the normal midpoint of the baseball season — although not the mathematical one – and with the MLB Draft including a bunch of latest prospects to the minors, it’s time to look again on the ZiPS prospect record from this previous winter. Some prospects have excelled within the majors and a few, nicely, not a lot, however that’s why we name them prospects and never certainties. Decoding minor league statistics correctly has all the time been a problem, nevertheless it’s extra so lately with an uncommon divergence in offensive ranges between the majors and excessive minors, particularly the Triple-A leagues. An .850 OPS which will have been spectacular within the Worldwide League a couple of years in the past isn’t that mouth-watering lately, whereas an ERA round 4 is unusually promising. ZiPS, naturally, has to translate minor league efficiency as a part of predicting how gamers will fare within the majors, and now that now we have public Statcast knowledge for the minors, there’s much more to dig into in 2024.

For every participant in final winter’s ZiPS High 100, I’m itemizing fast traces for his or her translated minor league efficiency (lower-case m), any main league efficiency, and lastly, a mix of the 2 to get one 2024 line (famous with a c).

As I’ve mentioned earlier than, Jackson Holliday may really be belowrated at this level. I received a whole lot of complaints in regards to the “bearish” .255/.341/.381 projection for him coming into the season, however ZiPS (and I) shared the assumption that folks had been coming too shortly on him. He’s nonetheless extraordinarily more likely to be a unbelievable participant, however contemplating he’s a 20-year-old who blasted by way of 4 ranges of the minors, it’s not the weirdest factor ever that he’d see a consolidation season. That .336/.332 OBP/SLG isn’t actually that far behind his projection, particularly contemplating ZiPS anticipated the main league offensive setting to be higher than it has been this season.

Coby Mayo has had the higher season however nonetheless wouldn’t come near passing Holliday if I rerolled the total high prospects proper now. James Wooden really has surpassed Holliday, although that may solely final till he exceeds the rookie most and sheds his prospect standing; he was legitimately glorious within the minors this yr. The sheen has come off each Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter a bit of bit, whereas Jackson Chourio and Masyn Winn have carried out about as marketed. As movers go, Adael Amador and Pete Crow-Armstrong appear to be the 2 who will take the largest hit of this group earlier than subsequent yr’s rankings (if PCA hasn’t graduated). There hasn’t been as a lot ink about Emmanuel Rodriguez as I might have anticipated this yr, even earlier than he injured his thumb final month. The Texas League, not like the Triple-A leagues, is a fairly low offensive setting, with a league OPS of simply .705, so his precise 1.100 OPS is fairly spectacular.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga have each carried out in addition to ZiPS anticipated. Whereas that’s hardly going out on a limb for Yamamoto, whom everybody favored, ZiPS was in on Imanaga very early. Paul Skenes, after all, has been fabulous, much more so than his top-notch translations from April and Could. I’d solely describe two of the pitchers on this record as unmitigated disappointments thus far in 2024, at the least from a projections standpoint: Each Ricky Tiedemann and Dylan Lesko will take fairly massive hits within the subsequent rankings. Andrew Painter will slide fairly a bit as nicely, however it could be fairly churlish to name a pitcher a disappointment for being injured.

Amongst this tranche of prospects, Brooks Lee is having arguably essentially the most spectacular 2024, and he’s continued to hit since his call-up a few weeks in the past. Between Lee and the Twins’ taking Kaelen Culpepper with their first-round choose on Sunday, Edouard Julien may get misplaced within the shuffle shortly in Minnesota; if I had been a GM of a workforce in want of a second baseman, I’d give the Twins name to see if he can rule once more on my membership. Anyway, I really anticipated ZiPS to come back round faster on Dylan Crews, however he’s probably not torching minor league pitching as I believed he would. Davis Schneider has lengthy been a ZiPS favourite, however he’s cooled off since a scorching run proper after he earned extra taking part in time by way of the method of elimination in Toronto’s struggling lineup.

Jett Williams inevitably will drop significantly after a wrist damage ruined his 2024 season, and Kevin Alcantára was one of many massive ZiPS droppers by way of future WAR. Whereas Samuel Basallo shouldn’t be matching his breakout 2023 season, he’s nonetheless a 19-year-old catcher, so he gained’t sag within the rankings too far.

this group’s long-term projections, it’s virtually stunning how little motion there’s been within the long-term projections. Of those 21 pitchers, solely three have had their five-year projected WAR transfer by greater than two WAR. The primary is Drew Thorpe, who was strong for Birmingham, and his poor Okay/BB ratios within the majors thus far in all probability aren’t consultant of his skills. The opposite is a a lot much less heralded prospect, Thomas Harrington of the Pirates, a somewhat Doug Fister-y prospect (is {that a} authorized adjective), who depends on management and changeups. The excessive minors might be merciless for this sort of pitcher, however he’s survived at the least one of many jumps, to Double-A, which improves his long-term outlook. On the flip aspect, Mick Abel’s command has continued to deteriorate, with each a seven-walk and a six-walk outing within the final month. It could be a shock if he didn’t fall fully off the ZiPS High 100 for 2025.

It hasn’t proven but within the majors, however Kyle Manzardo’s minor league efficiency this yr earlier than his call-up worn out the true “meh” feeling that ZiPS had about his 2023. Put up-suspension Noelvi Marte has been fairly awful, although now we have sufficient knowledge from gamers after drug suspensions to dismiss any histrionics that he’s struggled due to the shortage of efficiency enhancement. Final yr was largely the season that ZiPS got here round on Colson Montgomery after being later than virtually everybody/all the things else, and the outcome has been a bit of how I really feel after consuming a scorching canine from a fuel station. Joey Ortiz is the massive winner on this group, contending for the NL Rookie of the Yr award, and Kyle Teel should see a bump in subsequent yr’s prospect rankings as nicely. Like Basallo, Ethan Salas’ bat has backslid a bit, nevertheless it’s not value obsessing over how a teenage catching prospect is hitting. Andy Pages hasn’t matched his minor league begin this yr, however he’s been at the least respectable.

Heston Kjerstad simply missed the general ZiPS gainers record, but given Baltimore’s crowded offense, he’s nonetheless had hassle getting a full serving of plate appearances within the majors. If the O’s land Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, Kjerstad needs to be one of many names more likely to be included, particularly for the Tigers contemplating they’re much extra motivated so as to add main league-ready expertise than the hopeless Sox. ZiPS was as massive fan of Michael Busch, a type of low-ceiling, high-floor hitters with none actual positional worth, and he’s carried out about as nicely for the Cubs as may have moderately been anticipated.

ZiPS hoped for extra energy from Matt Shaw, and he’ll in all probability drop from the highest 100 except his trajectory modifications once more. However he gained’t drop so far as Luisangel Acuña, who has solely a 73 wRC+ in Triple-A, although the Mets don’t really appear disenchanted together with his efficiency. Whilst offense is up throughout Triple-A, Angel Martínez was having a dynamite season earlier than he was referred to as up; you shouldn’t dismiss a 147 wRC+ at Triple-A and not using a fairly compelling purpose. He’s additionally continued to hit within the majors, and I now really feel kinda responsible that I didn’t give ZiPS some new RAM to reward it for being so excessive on him coming into the season.