Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden provides path towards the LSU Tigers through the first half at Pete Maravich Meeting Middle. Necessary Credit score: Stephen Lew-Imagn Pictures Choosing chalk within the NCAA Match is, sarcastically, a daring prediction.
Simply as soon as within the event’s fashionable period has the Ultimate 4 featured all 4 No. 1 seeds — in 2008. This 12 months’s crop simply occurs to be the highest-rated quartet because the daybreak of KenPom.com. Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn all charge larger than plus-35, one thing by no means earlier than seen because the metrics web site started monitoring information in 1997.
Once I ran this train again in late January, I settled on Duke, Houston, Auburn and Michigan State as a great Ultimate 4 wager. However now we’ve got areas and brackets laid out earlier than us. Tempting as it’s to switch the Spartans with Florida and name it a day, let’s purpose these out one area at a time.
South Area
Auburn misplaced three of its final 4, convincing some of us to avoid the Tigers. These losses got here towards among the greatest groups the SEC has to supply, so let’s not overreact. And after getting previous a woefully underseeded No. 8 Louisville, the Tigers would take pleasure in an opportunity to sink their enamel right into a revenge recreation towards No. 4 Texas A&M, which beat them two weeks in the past.
However the No. 2 seed right here is Michigan State, which has a fairly simple highway to the Elite Eight (since No. 3 Iowa State will probably be down a key starter in Keshon Gilbert). That is Tom Izzo’s greatest workforce since earlier than the pandemic, and the Spartans are higher than Auburn in two key areas: rebounding and attending to the road. I’ve this unshakable feeling we’re getting one final Izzo run to the Ultimate 4.
Choose: No. 2 Michigan State
East Area
Feb 5, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer talks with guard Cooper Flagg (2) towards the Syracuse Orange through the first half on the JMA Wi-fi Dome. Necessary Credit score: Wealthy Barnes-Imagn Pictures I mentioned this Monday: Duke has the best path of the No. 1 seeds, a lot in order that it might make the Candy 16 with Cooper Flagg in avenue garments, resting his sprained ankle. As soon as Duke’s there, I’m not involved a few 12-loss Arizona within the No. 4 spot, although a really well-rounded Oregon might give the Blue Devils hassle because the No. 5 seed.
In the meantime, your different greatest candidates are No. 2 Alabama, whose protection I don’t belief, and No. 3 Wisconsin. Duke-Alabama and Duke-Wisconsin might make for some actually enjoyable Elite Eight matchups, however neither of those groups is prepared for the model of grind-it-out protection the Blue Devils play.
Choose: No. 1 Duke
Midwest Area
PHOTO USA TODAY SPORTS IMAGES Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler (5) appears for a path round Florida defenders through the second half of the Southeastern Convention event championship at Bridgestone Area in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 16, 2025. What a enjoyable area. No. 1 Houston and No. 2 Tennessee have been knocking on the door for years now. The No. 3 seed is Kentucky, in Mark Pope’s first season as coach, and Purdue, Clemson and Illinois have all had moments this season the place they’ve regarded elite.
Between their terrific defenses and the sluggish tempos they every wish to play, a Houston-Tennessee Elite Eight matchup appears like first one to 50 wins. The Cougars are additionally probably the greatest 3-point capturing groups on the market — however the Vols have the No. 1 perimeter protection in Division I. In the event that they chase the Cougars off the arc, I like the scale of Felix Okpara and firm to cease a Houston workforce that’s under common on 2-pointers.
Choose: No. 2 Tennessee
West Area
Working towards top-seeded Florida is that the West is essentially the most tough area, house to 5 of the highest 15 KenPom groups. The Gators might face two-time defending champion UConn within the spherical of 32, a red-hot Maryland workforce within the Candy 16, and St. John’s, Texas Tech, Missouri and even Kansas within the Elite Eight. Even conceding the truth that UConn and Kansas aren’t critical title contenders, it is a meat grinder.
But I maintain coming again to the Gators’ profile and might’t discover a matchup that I don’t like for them. They’re a wildly environment friendly offense that can make 3-pointers whereas stopping the three on the different finish. They defend the ball and rank eighth in offensive rebounding proportion, so that they’ll management possession. That is my different No. 1 seed choice for San Antonio.
Choose: No. 1 Florida
