After one other powerful loss in San Francisco final night time, the Blue Jays enter play this night at 41-50. They’ve dropped 9 video games behind the Pink Sox for the American League’s last postseason spot. Solely the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse file within the AL.
With lower than three weeks till the deadline, time is working out for the Jays to keep away from promoting. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins referred to as the following few weeks “exceptionally necessary” in figuring out the group’s course. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.
Unsurprisingly, that appears prefer it’ll go away the entrance workplace to ponder dealing short-term items. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote final night time that the Jays have indicated to different groups that they’re prepared to maneuver impending free brokers. Feinsand urged that Toronto remains to be disinterested in dealing gamers who’re underneath group management past this season. Feinsand left open the potential of Toronto holding onto gamers in the event that they creator a dramatic turnaround within the subsequent couple weeks, however he famous that the Jays “are ready to promote” in the event that they don’t reverse course shortly. Together with tonight, they’ve 16 video games till the deadline.
A reluctance to commerce controllable gamers aligns with Atkins’ prior public feedback. The GM stated in early June that transferring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — every of whom are slated totally free company on the finish of subsequent season — “simply doesn’t make any sense for us.” Whereas Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the thought of transferring every other gamers, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette signifies the group expects to rebound in 2025.
Even when the Jays focus commerce discussions on leases, the roster might look very totally different in just a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free brokers, every of whom has a sensible probability to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the highest rental beginning pitchers who ought to be out there.
Kikuchi is coming off among the finest outings of his profession. The lefty set a private excessive with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed a fair 4 earned runs per 9 by 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents whereas slicing his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Residence runs have all the time been a problem for the veteran southpaw, notably in opposition to right-handed hitters. But Kikuchi is engaged on a second straight season with an ERA round 4.00 with plus strikeout and stroll numbers.
That is the ultimate season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making simply $10MM this yr. Round $3.28MM would stay on the deadline. That ought to be reasonably priced for many contenders. Kikuchi can be a sensible qualifying supply candidate if the Jays don’t commerce him. If Toronto exceeds the posh tax threshold, they’d solely obtain a compensation choose after the fourth spherical within the 2025 draft if a professional free agent indicators elsewhere.
That’s additionally a possible issue for Danny Jansen, who’s the highest impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and commerce enchantment seemed quite a bit stronger as not too long ago as a month in the past. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed energy outage prior to now six weeks. Jansen has gone and not using a homer whereas working a .122/.241/.162 slash for the reason that finish of Could. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is strictly league common, as measured by wRC+.
Regardless of the droop, the Jays ought to nonetheless get calls on Jansen. There aren’t prone to be many beginning caliber catchers out there this summer time. Jansen has proven that sort of expertise all through his profession, although his worth has usually been undercut by a prolonged damage historical past. Even when he’s not presently in high kind, Jansen has glorious strike zone self-discipline with double-digit dwelling run energy. He’s a high quality receiving catcher however doesn’t have an amazing arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his last arbitration season.
Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are each enjoying on one-year free agent offers, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who might generate some curiosity for a bench function on a contender. The Jays would doubtless must pay down many of the cash to facilitate a commerce of both participant, although. Kiermaier stays a wonderful defensive heart fielder however has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with 5 homers over 294 journeys to the plate. He’s working largely as a chosen hitter with sporadic reps on the nook infield spots.
Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the ultimate two impending free brokers. García, who’s enjoying on a $6MM wage, obtained out to a wonderful begin to the yr. He fired 28 innings of two.57 ERA ball with an enormous 34.6% strikeout fee over 27 appearances. An elbow challenge despatched him to the injured record in mid-June. García is on a rehab task with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him however the Jays are hopeful that García might be prepared for reinstatement this weekend.
Richards, who’s making simply $2.15MM in his final arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run common in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned 1 / 4 of opponents in opposition to a 9% stroll fee. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this yr’s 10% swinging strike fee is the bottom of his profession. He’s greatest fitted to a center reduction function however ought to have some enchantment on the commerce market as an reasonably priced multi-inning arm.
Shifting the majority or all of these gamers might have vital monetary ramifications for the group. RosterResource estimates the group’s luxurious tax commitments simply north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the group’s CBT mark nearer to $250MM. These exterior projections put the group $10-13MM above this yr’s $237MM base tax threshold. A company’s aggressive steadiness tax quantity is calculated on the finish of the season.
If the Jays decide to promoting, they might get near or beneath the tax line. They need to be capable of offload the prorated parts of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is wholesome, they might in all probability discover a taker for what stays of his contract. Relying on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner cash one other group is perhaps prepared to eat, there could also be a path to getting their CBT quantity underneath $237MM. That might reset the group’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor in the event that they determined to spend again above the tax line in 2025.
Getting underneath the CBT marker can be a lot simpler if the Jays had been prepared to transcend the leases. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Inexperienced are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Shifting anybody from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 extra of an uphill battle, after all. It doesn’t appear that’s an avenue the entrance workplace is raring to take. It stays to be seen in the event that they’ll extra significantly contemplate that sort of roster overhaul over the approaching weeks.
