The Blue Jays have an interest free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, stories Bob Nightengale of USA Right this moment. Nightengale additionally mentions that the membership is pursuing high pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. The membership has beforehand been linked to high free agent starters resembling Fried and Blake Snell in current weeks, so Burnes being on the checklist as nicely is aligned with these pursuits.
The reference to Santander is a smart one. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco predicted the Jays to signal Santander when our Prime 50 Free Brokers checklist got here out earlier this month. The Jays are a smart match for an outfielder and a potent bat, two bins that might be checked by Santander.
Proper now, the Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as the 2 established massive leaguers of their outfield. Varsho underwent shoulder surgical procedure in September and it’s doable that he’ll miss the opening of the 2025 season. Springer is now 35 years previous and has seen his wRC+ decline for 5 straight years now. He had a 155 wRC+ in 2019 however that quantity has gone to 143, 140, 133, 104 and 95 lately.
Along with these two, the Jays have loads of different theoretical choices to take taking part in time on the turf. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger and Steward Berroa are all outfield choices on the 40-man roster, however there’s not a lot certainty there. Schneider is the one one with greater than 81 massive league video games on his observe report and he’s coming off a irritating season. In brief, there’s loads of room for the Jays to make an exterior addition.
Extra broadly, some residence run pop could be welcome within the lineup. The Jays have been center of the pack by way of wRC+ and on-base proportion in 2024 however have been twenty sixth within the majors by way of residence runs, forward of simply the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. Solely six guys on the membership bought to double digits with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the one Blue Jay to get to twenty dingers on the yr.
Santander can definitely present that energy, having simply hit 44 residence runs this previous yr. With 105 homers over the previous three seasons, he’s sixth within the majors for that timeframe behind star sluggers Aaron Choose, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. The Jays have a bunch of key contributors who hit from the proper facet, resembling Guerrero, Springer, Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk, so Santander’s switch-hitting skill seemingly provides to the enchantment. He’s not a terrific defender however he’s slashed .244/.317/.478 over the previous three years for a 124 wRC+ and the Jays don’t have a full-time designated hitter, which may enable them to restrict the draw back of his glovework.
It appears honest to conclude that Santander could be a fallback plan within the occasion the Jays don’t reach touchdown Juan Soto. The Jays are one of many golf equipment nonetheless plausibly within the combine for Soto, with affords anticipated to come back in this week.
Soto ticks lots of the identical bins as Santander, as he’s a lefty-swinging outfielder with energy, however he’s the extra engaging free agent for just a few causes. Soto is way youthful, as he’s now 26 whereas Santander is 30. Soto’s elite eye on the plate can also be in a distinct stratosphere in comparison with Santander. Soto’s 18.8% stroll fee in his profession is roughly double a traditional league common and better than his 17% strikeout fee. Santander, in the meantime, takes a free go at a subpar 7.3% clip.
Based mostly on these variations, Soto goes to be Plan A for lots of golf equipment, who will then view Santander as a possible security alongside different free agent outfielders like Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and others. Whereas MLBTR predicted Soto for a $600MM assure, Santander was projected for a deal of $80MM over 4 years, clearly much more inexpensive.
Santander has been linked to the Yankees this winter as certainly one of many gamers the Yanks may flip to in the event that they don’t get Soto and the Jays seemingly view their state of affairs equally. Soto is extensively anticipated to safe a record-breaking contract of some type, so groups will naturally wish to assess their payroll ledgers and contemplate the domino results of such a contract earlier than pivoting to different strikes.
On the pitching facet, the Jays have been linked to some beginning pitchers already, as talked about. The Jays have a veteran entrance three of their rotation, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt all below contract for 2025. Bowden Francis appears to have earned a rotation gig together with his sturdy second half in 2024. Candidates for the fifth spot embrace Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss, however Rodríguez additionally has loads of reduction expertise and could possibly be within the bullpen. Bloss nonetheless has choices and restricted expertise, not having thrown a lot within the majors nor the minors.
Including a pitcher like Fried or Snell or Burnes would clearly strengthen the group. Burnes has been among the best pitchers in baseball over the previous 5 years, although he hasn’t been fairly as dominant over the previous two. From 2020 to 2022, he had a 2.62 earned run common, 33.4% strikeout fee, 6.4% stroll fee and 47.6% floor ball fee. Within the two most up-to-date seasons, it’s been a 3.15 ERA, together with his strikeout fee falling to 24.3%.
That’s a little bit of a priority however Burnes continues to be arguably the highest pitcher accessible in free company this offseason. MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, with Snell at $160MM over 5 and Fried at $156MM over six.
There are a lot of methods it may play out but it surely appears the Jays are setting their sights excessive after lacking out on Ohtani final winter after which having a disappointing season in 2024. It’s additionally been urged that the Jays could possibly be fairly aggressive this offseason since there are just a few potential pivot factors developing. Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all slated free of charge company for 2025, whereas staff president Mark Shapiro and supervisor John Schneider are every going into the ultimate years of their respective offers as nicely. Common supervisor Ross Atkins is below contract by 2026 although it’s been urged that he could also be below strain to ship within the upcoming season with the intention to stick round.
The Jays had an Opening Day payroll of $225MM final yr, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with RosterResource presently projecting them for $189MM in 2025. Shapiro had beforehand stated he didn’t anticipate the membership’s payroll to considerably improve or lower relative to 2024, so the Jays may have one thing within the neighborhood of $35MM to spend this offseason on a notable free agent.
Some reporting, together with from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, has pointed to possession maybe having a Soto and non-Soto funds. The membership was apparently keen to go to larger monetary extremes to signal Ohtani final winter however didn’t find yourself redistributing that cash to different gamers after he signed with the Dodgers. Equally, the payroll ceiling could possibly be moved as much as accommodate a Soto deal however not in any other case.
No matter how a lot cash they find yourself spending this winter, draft choose forfeiture can be one other value the membership should contemplate. Every of Soto, Burnes, Fried and Santander rejected a qualifying provide, as did different potential targets like Hernández or Willy Adames. Snell wasn’t eligible to obtain a QO this offseason as a result of he already rejected one a yr in the past.
The Jays are believed to have simply snuck below the aggressive steadiness tax in 2024 by buying and selling away some veterans on the deadline, which impacts their penalties for signing a participant who rejected a qualifying provide. A tax-paying membership has to forfeit $1MM of worldwide bonus pool house in addition to its second- and fifth-highest choose within the subsequent draft. If the Jays did certainly go below the CBT line in 2024, these penalties will as a substitute be $500K of pool house and simply the second-best draft choose. In recent times, the Jays have been keen to signal gamers who rejected qualifying affords, doing so with each Springer and Bassitt.
