Bieber Decides To Keep | FanGraphs Baseball

In keeping with the Billboard Scorching 100 charts, the most important hit of Justin Bieber’s profession is “Keep,” a track you both can’t get out of your head, received’t admit you may’t get out of your head, or simply don’t understand you may’t get out of your head since you hear it enjoying all over the place — on a regular basis — however didn’t know the title or artist. Anyway, it appears as if the not-so-subliminal messaging of 1 Bieber influenced the opposite. Shane Bieber has determined to remain (oh, ooh-woah) with the Guardians, and he’s hoping the choice proves to be simply as profitable as Justin’s track.

Bieber’s contract is basically a one-year prove-it take care of the added safety of a participant possibility for a second yr. The correct-hander will earn $10 million for his age-30 season in 2025. After that, he can both train a $16 million possibility for 2026 or take a $4 million buyout and return to free company. In different phrases, the participant possibility is basically solely value $12 million to Bieber, which implies he absolutely doesn’t intend to train it until issues go notably mistaken. In any case, he managed to web this contract midway by means of his rehab from Tommy John surgical procedure. The Guardians are ready to pay him $14 million for half a season of labor, and reportedly, that wasn’t even his highest provide. It’s secure to say he’s not selecting up that possibility until he suffers one other damage.

So, if Bieber’s plan is to proceed his rehab, rebuild his worth, and money in subsequent offseason, it’s straightforward to grasp why he may need taken much less cash to remain in Cleveland. Not solely does he have already got a relationship and a rehab plan with the Guardians, however this is a corporation with a robust observe document for serving to pitchers thrive. Simply take a look at Matthew Boyd, who got here again from Tommy John this summer time and turned a handful of begins with the Guardians into a two-year, $29 million deal with the Cubs. Alternatively, take a look at Bieber himself. The group took a fourth-round draft choose (122nd total) and 45-FV prospect and developed him right into a Cy Younger winner. It’s hardly stunning that he needs to stay with the identical group as he works his manner again from a career-altering damage. The probabilities that he’ll in the end obtain an enormous, long-term deal from the Guardians are slim to none, however he’s relying on them to assist him get that provide from another person.

Does that make Bieber sound like a teen film character who’s solely relationship the Guardians to get the pinnacle cheerleader to note him? Perhaps, however the Guardians aren’t any chumps on this state of affairs. Actually, their facet of the deal could be even sweeter. The median prediction for Bieber from our contract crowdsourcing train was a two-year, $40 million pact. Of the 11 pitchers from our High 50 Free Brokers listing to signal up to now, solely two have signed for lower than their contract crowdsourcing estimates: Nick Martinez, who accepted the qualifying provide, and Bieber. (The monetary particulars of Alex Cobb’s contract with the Tigers have but to be revealed.) If Bieber appears something like his previous self when he will get again on the mound, $14 million might be a steal for the Guardians, even when he pitches solely half a season.

At his finest, Bieber is nearly untouchable. He definitely appeared that manner in the beginning of the 2024 season. In his Opening Day begin, he gave the Guardians six scoreless innings, putting out 11 and strolling none. He adopted that up with one other six scoreless frames in his second outing. He struck out solely 9 that point, however he once more didn’t subject any free passes. That’s ridiculously good for any two consecutive performances, not to mention his first two begins of the yr. Going again to 1901, just one different pitcher has ever thrown at the very least 12 scoreless innings with at the very least 20 strikeouts and no a couple of stroll in his first two begins of the season: Shane Bieber in 2020. How’s that for a enjoyable truth?

Underlying these dominant performances was a rise in fastball velocity. Bieber averaged 92.3 mph on his four-seamer in his first begin of the season. That quantity dropped to 91.6 mph in his second begin, at which level he was already pitching by means of the ache of a broken UCL. But, even that diminished quantity was a mile per hour sooner than his common four-seam velocity over his first two begins in 2023 (90.6 mph). Maybe including that additional oomph precipitated his damage within the first place. Alternatively, maybe nagging damage points had been the foundation explanation for his velocity fluctuations, and a surgically repaired elbow is exactly what he must get again on observe. Proper now, there may be little level in speculating once we simply don’t know what Bieber goes to appear like when he returns.

What we do know is that Bieber can nonetheless be a top-of-the-rotation arm even with well-below-average fastball velocity. He was wonderful in 2022, when his four-seamer averaged simply 91.3 mph, pitching to a 2.88 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and 4.8 WAR throughout 31 begins. He wasn’t fairly as profitable the next season, placing up a 3.80 ERA and three.87 FIP over 21 outings. Nonetheless, he was pacing for 3.1 WAR that yr earlier than a shoulder damage and his first bout of elbow hassle prevented him from pitching a full season. What’s extra, and I’m cherry-picking now, however in the event you take away his two poor begins from proper earlier than he landed on the IL, he would have been on tempo for 3.4 WAR in 31 begins. Solely 20 pitchers reached 3.4 WAR in 2023.

When Bieber was thriving with no plus fastball, it was because of pinpoint command and a pair of dastardly breaking balls. From 2022-23, his 5.3% stroll charge ranked seventh amongst certified pitchers. Including in hit-by-pitches, solely 4 certified hurlers issued free passes at a decrease charge. As for these breaking balls, a slider and curveball, they had been simply as dominant in 2022 as they had been in his Cy Younger season. Nonetheless, his curve was noticeably much less efficient in 2023 (.280 wOBA, .299 xwOBA, -1 Run Worth), which was one of many main causes his total numbers took a success.

On the intense facet, that was one of many pitches Bieber labored on at Driveline over the 2023-24 offseason. He adjusted his curveball grip to nearer resemble the model of the pitch he threw earlier in his profession. The intention was to make it look as very like his fastball out of the hand as doable, due to this fact inducing extra chase. Sadly, we didn’t get to see sufficient of Bieber in 2024 to inform if his curveball was again to being the pitch it as soon as was. We didn’t get to see a lot of the splinker he was engaged on both. Furthermore, we simply don’t have any manner of realizing what any of his pitches will appear like when he lastly will get again on the mound. I do know that’s a variety of uncertainty, however that’s the truth in terms of Tommy John. All I can say is that if his secondary pitches are sharp, Bieber has the talents to succeed with out his highest velocity. He has all the time been a tinkerer, and that may assist tremendously if he must reinvent his arsenal.

The broad 12- to 18-month timeline to return from Tommy John is especially unhelpful in Bieber’s case. His surgical procedure happened in early April; a 12-month rehab would put him again on the mound not lengthy after Opening Day, whereas 18 months would put him prone to lacking your entire 2025 season. Bieber himself is reportedly eyeing to separate the distinction with a return round June or July. Thus, in a best-case state of affairs, the Guardians in all probability get 15 to 18 begins out of him in the course of the common season. Most significantly, they’d have him for the playoffs. A one-two punch of Bieber and Tanner Bibee may give the Guardians a greater postseason rotation than that they had in 2024, no matter who else makes up the beginning employees.

In fact, we will’t ignore the remainder of the rotation, particularly in terms of the primary half of the season. As issues stand, Cleveland might be stretched skinny till Bieber returns, and much more so if he suffers a setback. After shedding Boyd and Cobb in free company, that is what the workforce’s rotation depth chart presently appears like:

You’re a bunch that may in all probability have to depend on one other traditionally nice efficiency from the bullpen as a way to hold sufficient runs off the board. Suffice it to say, a pair extra outdoors additions can be an amazing assist. Nonetheless, when president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti mentioned the rotation earlier this offseason, his feedback had been one thing of an inner choices sandwich: “I believe at the start we’ve to assist the fellows which are right here proceed to develop and get higher and contribute… Then we’ll all the time be on the lookout for alternatives to enhance them. Our success goes to be dependent upon how nicely we do with growing the fellows which are right here.” Antonetti alludes to the opportunity of bringing in outdoors assist, however he surrounds that suggestion with stronger language about counting on the pitchers he already has.

In terms of the Guardians, Bieber’s $26 million assure counts as an enormous splash in free company. Furthermore, their estimated 2025 payroll ($107 million) is already greater than the ultimate payroll in 2024 ($104 million). So, it’s greater than doable the depth chart we’re proper now’s precisely the identical as what we’ll see on Opening Day. In that case, this workforce ought to depend its fortunate stars that Bieber determined to remain.