The graceful, lefty stroke has aged like high-quality wine by way of baseball historical past. Ben Rice is among the newest examples of a left-handed hitter whose swing alone makes him enjoyable to observe. Shifting by way of the Yankees’ system as a bat-first catcher, Rice’s explosive minor league efficiency the final yr pressured his title into the massive league dialog when first baseman Anthony Rizzo landed on the injured checklist with a fractured arm.
Even earlier than Rizzo went down, Rice was mixing in additional time at first base at Triple-A this season. That’s the place the organizational want was, and his abilities weren’t fairly suited long-term at catcher anyway. As you’d anticipate, his protection at his new place has been a piece in progress, and the identical is true for the remainder of his recreation. On the plate, Rice is experiencing the identical ups and downs that the majority rookies do: Pitchers are determining how finest to assault him, and he’s studying find out how to make changes on the huge league stage.
With a 102 wRC+ over 142 plate appearances, Rice has been formidable so far, however a lot of that is because of his sizzling streak that got here alongside together with his call-up. Throughout his first 19 video games, he slashed .267/.348/.567 with 5 residence runs, together with the three in opposition to the Pink Sox on July 6, and a 154 wRC+ over 69 plate appearances. Throughout his 18 video games (73 PA) since then, he’s batting .143/.247/.283 with two homers and a 53 wRC+. Regardless of that current skid, ZiPS nonetheless believes in Rice, giving him a projected 110 wRC+ for the remainder of the season. No projections come with out uncertainty, after all, however there’s a cause why ZiPS – and different projection methods – are assured the under-the-radar prospect can proceed to be above common on the plate. Let’s get into it.
Heading into 2023, Rice was a 24-year-old prospect in A-ball. Regardless of good offensive performances in 2021 and ’22, he wasn’t the kind of participant many have been anticipating to rise by way of 4 ranges over the course of a yr, but that’s precisely what he did. With selective aggression and a knack for creating pure loft in his swing, Rice dominated minor league pitching from the second the 2023 season began by way of when he received his main league call-up this June. The good minor league efficiency is a key cause for his sturdy projection. He walked loads, didn’t strike out an excessive amount of, and hit for energy. Even with out the gaudy general manufacturing, the bones of which have continued throughout his seven weeks within the huge leagues.
His 84th percentile SEAGER is implausible for any hitter, not to mention a rookie. He assaults hittable pitches at a excessive clip and has nice really feel for the strike zone, chasing underneath 20% of the time. Although his numbers within the minors prompt his swing choices have been above common, this efficiency in his first chunk of taking part in time has bolstered that he can maintain it up at this stage.
As he’s struggled over his previous 18 video games, he’s nonetheless taking his walks (12.3%) and the standard of his plate appearances remains to be robust. It’s a pleasant talent to fall again on by way of ruts like this. The slumps are going to occur, however swing choices and plate self-discipline are foundational items that may assist hitters emerge from tough stretches. Earlier than diving deeper into Rice’s struggles and potential weaknesses, let’s spherical out the opposite piece that enhances his swing choices so effectively: his swing.
Like I mentioned at first of this piece, Rice’s swing has that look to it. It’s low effort, however nonetheless adequate to supply pull aspect elevate. It’s a bit steep, however has sufficient adjustability to not get dominated by excessive warmth. We’re nonetheless coping with a small pattern right here, however Rice has proven some constructive indicators within the high third of the strike zone regardless of his .279 wOBA up there. He doesn’t chase above his fingers typically and may even get on high of pitches sufficient to drive them. Listed here are some swings with a wide range of outcomes:
The very first thing that stands proud to me is Rice’s base. All through every of those swings, whiff or barrel, his toes are securely within the floor. A secure base is the first step to having an adjustable swing. With the intention to create pull aspect elevate on pitches in numerous elements of the strike zone, your toes should be safe sufficient to offer your higher physique an opportunity to regulate. On the whiffs, it seems like Rice is only a bit late to get his toes within the floor, inflicting him to hover additional over his again hip and fail to get his bat on a perfect path to make contact. That’ll be one thing to concentrate to going ahead as pitchers look to alter his eye stage and pressure him to cowl each the highest and backside of the zone.
However as I mentioned, when Rice’s toes are cemented within the floor, he’s in a terrific place to create hard-hit elevate. By means of 88 batted balls, Rice is operating an almost 40% sweet-spot charge. As a reminder, that quantity is the proportion of batted balls which might be hit between eight and 32 levels. It’s your finest alternative to hit barrels. Due to this, Rice’s contact high quality has been excellent to date; each his .463 xwOBACON and 19.3% barrel charge could be among the many league leaders if he have been a certified hitter. Principally, when Rice has made contact, the outcomes have been favorable. That mixed together with his selective aggression and unwillingness to depart the strike zone has led to a .375 xwOBA. That’s an enormous hole from the place his .310 wOBA sits, however keep in mind, that is nonetheless a small pattern and the hole isn’t resulting from dangerous luck alone. Rice has actually struggled in opposition to the gradual stuff to date.
In opposition to breaking balls and offspeed pitches, Rice has hit .171 and .125, respectively. The anticipated numbers don’t look dangerous (.385 xwOBA and .296 xwOBA) however his efficiency in opposition to righty offspeed pitches and lefty breaking balls is regarding. On a league-wide stage, left-handed batters have a .270 wOBA and 29.7% whiff charge in opposition to right-handed offspeed pitches. Rice’s wOBA sits at .250 and his whiff charge is extraordinarily excessive (40.5%). With left-on-left sliders, the whiffs haven’t been as dangerous within the small pattern (21.4%), however he hasn’t managed any good contact in opposition to them (.080 wOBA).
From a pitch sequencing perspective, right-handed changeups or splitters and left-handed breaking balls are perfect for neutralizing lefty batters. They’re the right pitches to take Rice off the heater. If he doesn’t be taught to enhance in opposition to these pitches, then he’s most likely going to battle within the huge leagues. I do know, it’s fairly easy! Let’s check out among the swings to see what’s happening:
So the massive query right here: Can Rice be adjustable sufficient to cease swinging over these pitches? Within the first clip, he confirmed a capability to decelerate and make contact with a low changeup, whereas within the fourth one, he fouled off a well-located breaking ball. However these are only a two examples. In opposition to each of those pitch-type-handedness mixtures, Rice’s outcomes have left a lot to want. He’s in an adjustment interval the place pitchers are daring him to show he can take totally different swings and skim totally different speeds within the zone.
Regardless of the poor performances, I don’t suppose Rice’s swings have seemed all that dangerous after watching each single swing he’s taken in opposition to these pitches this yr. Evaluating hitting isn’t all visible, nevertheless it’s an excellent signal to see batters keep balanced after they swing as an alternative of getting fully fooled.
Contemplating Rice’s above-average swing choices and the truth that it hasn’t been visually regarding, I’m really bullish on his potential improvement in opposition to these pitches. Plus, the Yankees have began defending him a bit in opposition to lefties with good breaking balls anyway. Over the last two weeks, DJ LeMahieu has began at first base over Rice in opposition to Cristopher Sánchez, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana. Rice has nonetheless had alternatives in opposition to left-handed relievers on occasion, however supervisor Aaron Boone appears to be attempting to stop the younger hitter from getting uncovered in tough matchups.
By way of the remainder of this season, I’m assured Rice can come by way of on that 110 ZiPS projection if he retains up his method and continues to create the kind of harm he has on his batted balls. There are holes are in his profile, however his strengths are compelling and ought to be sufficient to carry up his offensive efficiency, particularly in opposition to right-handed pitching.
When Rice was on his heater, it was simple to dream that he could possibly be the Yankees’ subsequent nice lefty-swinging first baseman for years to come back. However in actuality, he’s not more likely to be a famous person slugger. As an alternative, the chances are in his favor to be 10-15% higher than the typical hitter. And in a lineup that already has elite offensive manufacturing on the high, that’s all of the Yankees want from him. As he works by way of his struggles, it’ll be essential to see some kind of adjustment, whether or not bodily or psychological, in opposition to righty offspeed pitches and lefty breaking balls. Nonetheless, there isn’t any denying {that a} hitter with nice plate self-discipline and the pure capability to drag the ball within the air is someone who can stick round within the huge leagues and have success on the plate.
