2:01 |
: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat
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2:01 |
: Being that it’s early January, I’m gonna hold it comparatively brief right this moment
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2:01 |
: Say 45 minutes or so
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2:01 |
: however let’s use that point properly
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2:01 |
: With their additions, are the A’s legit contenders for a playoff spot in 2025?
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2:01 |
: No. I believe they’re nonetheless gonna be sub-10% or so
|
2:02 |
: However extra respectable than many of the current variations of the A’s, nonetheless
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2:02 |
: The Orioles have starter depth however nonetheless want an ace, and the Padres, who will lose Dylan Stop subsequent yr, might use a younger OF bat. Would one thing like Heston Kjerstad and Dean Kremer, perhaps with a 3rd piece, get it executed?
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2:02 |
: I believe that may get it executed, however I don’t actually see them buying and selling Kjerstad
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2:03 |
: It’s simply incompatible with the best way they deal from their prospects; Ortiz was not precisely surplus however fairly blocked by different fascinating prospects on the very least
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2:03 |
: Kjerstad feels extra more likely to be an actual contributor this yr, which might make the commerce much less of a pure improve. that appears to me to be the best way they wish to make offers
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2:03 |
: I do know you assume Eguy Rosario can have a future if he can get unblocked. Roster Useful resource now exhibits him because the Padres’ DH, however this doesn’t seem to be a fantastic match. Does he stay commerce bait, maybe an additional piece in a Dylan Stop deal?
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2:03 |
: I believe that’d be awkward b/c a staff buying Stop might be a playoff contender, and that doesn’t sound like a staff that’s going to only slam Eguy right into a beginning spot
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2:05 |
: I don’t completely hate DH for him, however i feel that AB’s might be exhausting to return by there, so yeah, I’d like to see him in a spot the place he has common infield enjoying time
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2:05 |
: The Yankees can’t actually be assuming DJLM might be enjoying third once more this yr, can they? CAN THEY?!?!?!?
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2:06 |
: I actually assume that they’re going to accumulate a bigger-ticket 3B nonetheless
|
2:06 |
: their roster simply makes so little sense with DJLM
|
2:06 |
: it’s leaving an apparent level of weak spot in a winter the place lots of their strikes appear to be about shoring up weaknesses
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2:07 |
: What sort of contract do you assume Framber Valdez might be subsequent yr? Identical age at FA as Snell (32), much less stuff however extra sturdy. 4/120? 5/140? Extra?
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2:07 |
: man, I’d be actually anxious about giving Framber a giant deal. That’s an actual change of opinion for me, I really feel like I used to be one of many excessive analysts on him for years, however the final 18 months or so have me questioning how he’s going to deal with a change in stuff
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2:07 |
: his fastball appears to want a really specific form to work, and when he misplaced it for some time, he was not excellent
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2:08 |
: I suppose I’d say that he’ll in all probability get one thing within the vary you named, however I’d hope to not be the staff giving it to him
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2:08 |
: I believe it’s wrong-way threat. I don’t assume he’s more likely to ship you an enormous windfall at that contract, however coming in means low feels potential to me
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2:08 |
: There aren’t any well being updates on Edward Cabrera and he’s projected because the #2 starter for the Marlins. Do you imagine that risk? Can he actually keep wholesome and productive or is the die forged?
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2:08 |
: I don’t imagine that risk
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2:09 |
: Not that it will possibly’t occur… however I’d wager towards it at affordable odds
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2:09 |
: Largest shock of the offseason to this point?
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2:09 |
: I believe it’s the A’s turning into aggressive acquirers in beginning pitching
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2:10 |
: The A’s have a variety of starters on their 40-man roster: Severino, Springs, Sears, Bido, Ginn, Estes, Spence, Basso, and Harris. Barring a commerce or damage, Severino, Springs, and Sears are locks for the rotation. However what ought to they do with the remainder of them? None of them actually have something left to show or work on within the minors. Ought to the A’s experiment with a workers of tandem starters the place two pitchers work 5 innings and 4 innings, respectively, every recreation, as a substitute of the standard 5-man rotation and 8-man bullpen?
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2:10 |
: For instance!
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2:11 |
: Mmmmm, no, I don’t assume that makes a ton of sense until they’ve buy-in from everybody. I believe extra realistically, a few of these guys are going to get harm and a few received’t play sufficient to be within the majors.
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2:11 |
: Like, Hogan Harris is on this checklist. He’s 28 and each single run prevention stat was above 5.50 in sizable minor league enjoying time final yr
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2:12 |
: I really feel like I do know rather a lot about baseball, and I needed to search for who Basso was
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2:12 |
: dude was additionally getting shelled within the minors
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2:13 |
: This isn’t a ‘now we have 8 true established starters’ scenario, I believe that they need to simply go the traditional route and let accidents and underperformance make issues work
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2:13 |
: Guardians bought a steal on Shane Bieber this yr after seeing Boyd and Morton’s contracts, amongst others. I’d assume he needs to be gone on the deadline in the event that they aren’t certain contenders by then
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2:13 |
: I agree with you right here
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2:14 |
: I used to be very stunned to see him signal for that deal given how excited groups have been to pay potential top-end starter
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2:14 |
: That mentioned, I get it from his standpoint. It’s good to rehab in a scenario you’re acquainted with, and the cash/years aren’t horrible
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2:14 |
: I believe this was a case the place the potential future earnings bump from having your rehab go properly outstrips the additional couple of bucks you might make this offseason
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2:15 |
: Brady Basso was not getting shelled within the minors. He was in Vegas and was sufferer of an unsustainable excessive HR/FB%. His xFIP was 4.26, which is nice for that surroundings
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2:15 |
: do you assume he has nothing extra to show within the minors?
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2:15 |
: No, he has extra to show for certain
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2:15 |
: Yeah, that’s extra my level
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2:15 |
: like, that wasn’t a listing the place I’d be flabbergasted if anybody bought despatched down
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2:16 |
: i’d be extra stunned if nobody did
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2:16 |
: Plenty of speaking heads and followers in NYC are saying that the NYY, as presently constituted, are a greater staff than final yr’s squad with Soto. I don’t see it. What do you assume?
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2:16 |
: Yeah, I don’t actually purchase it, however I’ll say, I like their function gamers’ odds of bouncing again
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2:16 |
: like having a full season of Jazz is sweet
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2:17 |
: and I believe that their pitching will in all probability be higher even ex-Fried
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2:17 |
: Admire the transient backwards and forwards, that’s what makes these chats enjoyable 🙂
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2:17 |
: and like I mentioned, I’m no Basso professional
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2:17 |
: Um, what are the Orioles doing? It appears to be like like they could blow their probability to maximise their window as a result of Elias is brutally threat averse with regards to their SP.
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2:18 |
: Yeah uh… I write this text yearly
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2:18 |
: I truly wished to write down an article known as ‘c’mon, orioles, do one thing’ earlier than they signed Sugano, and I came upon I’d already written an article with that title
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2:18 |
: I’m very confused by their methodology
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2:19 |
: it’s form of Rays-y in that they appear to be attempting to construct a really sustainably high-floor group by focusing closely on trades that spherical them out somewhat than make them higher-ceiling, and hten taking occasional swings
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2:20 |
: however that appears like a very unusual approach to go about maximizing a window constructed on two stars
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2:20 |
: Mountcastle and Kremer get you near Castillo? Would Povich be value greater than Kremer?
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2:20 |
: I’m not saying it shouldn’t
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2:20 |
: or properly, perhaps I’m, I haven’t thought too exhausting about that but
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2:20 |
: however the Mariners should not budging for scraps like that
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2:20 |
: they’ve made it very clear that htey assume their pitchers are value their weight in gold
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2:21 |
: ‘right here, have a roughly common first baseman and a starter who wouldn’t go in your rotation’
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2:21 |
: Do you assume groups/pitchers/catchers generally declare PitchCom issues when there aren’t any, simply to get an additional minute of relaxation? It might simply be me remembering examples throughout high-leverage conditions, but it surely does seem to be they might recreation the pitch-clock system on occasion by saying the PitchCom will not be working – very not often have I seen them exchange the machine.
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2:21 |
: ‘assume’ will not be sturdy sufficient
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2:21 |
: I strongly imagine it
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2:21 |
: I’d be shocked, extra shocked than I’d be if the White Sox go .500 this yr, to study that it ISN’T occurring
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2:21 |
: wanting ahead to the Orioles turning into the following angels
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2:21 |
: Like – I’m a Yankee fan and even I’m like – ORIOLES, PLEASE DO SOMETHING
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2:22 |
: I don’t assume they’re gonna flip into the following Angels
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2:23 |
: I do assume they could flip into the following Pirates, by way of a staff that hit it massive with some revolutionary new methods, developed an outstanding core on account of that plus some good draft picks, after which by no means supplemented the core in any respect and ended up losing it
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2:23 |
: FWIW – Luis Castillo’s weight in gold is round $500k. They’re treating him as much more helpful.
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2:23 |
: value his weight in GPU’s
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2:23 |
: i dunno, some helpful factor. value his weight in vanilla?
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2:23 |
: however like, actual vanilla pods, not the extract
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2:24 |
: If the Mariners assume Castillo is superior they usually’re completely joyful paying him his contract (affordable I believe), what does a commerce of him even seem like? A pitcher simply nearly as good plus extra?
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2:24 |
: a high hitting prospect
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2:24 |
: in all probability with an ETA of proper now
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2:25 |
: Whereas I agree on the pitchcom I’ve one other, maybe extra delicate approach to recreation the clock – Francisco Alvarez actually likes to throw behind runners. I believe that a part of that’s he likes to throw but it surely additionally offers the pitcher an additional second with out breaking any guidelines
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2:26 |
: I believe that this one is much less implicit and extra accepted
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2:26 |
: again picks final yr felt to me, anecdotally, more likely than they was once to get lollipopped in there
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2:26 |
: How a lot of Pete Alonso’s lack of a strong market this yr is as a result of his poor platform yr and the way a lot is it that projection programs actually don’t like him?
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2:26 |
: These issues are inextricably linked, however I suppose what I’d say is that this
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2:27 |
: I believe that the projection system consensus was decrease on Alonso than followers/baseball execs already coming into 2024
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2:27 |
: I believe it largely got here from the truth that he broke out late and projection programs are skeptical of profession arcs like that
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2:28 |
: however I believe that this dangerous platform yr each lowered the projections additional, to love ‘purple flag, maintain up the deal’ ranges, and likewise cooled off the ‘we’re signing him for the dingers and autographs’ crowd a bit
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2:29 |
: I’ve no clue what he’s gonna do. I believe I wrote rather a lot in my blurb about how I do model-based projecting and there aren’t a variety of circumstances like Alonso’s so I principally advised the mannequin to close up and went up by rather a lot from its estiamte
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2:29 |
: Is Goldschmidt the worst signing of the offseason to this point? Brian Cashman has made this error 1,000,000 occasions earlier than and exhibits no signal of slowing, not like Paul
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2:29 |
: oh man, I don’t assume so in any respect
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2:29 |
: now, in the event that they’re dedicated to giving him 600 PA’s even when he’s toast, sure
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2:29 |
: however I believe that it’s a good wager at a great value
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2:30 |
: like, dude received MVP lately sufficient, and gamers have late-career spike years usually sufficient, that I believe it is a good threat to be taking
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2:30 |
: if he’s a catastrophe and also you’re keen to chop him, then it’s no biggie
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2:30 |
: I assure you you will get a blah-level 1B on the commerce deadline for peanuts
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2:31 |
: Are you anxious about Rutschman in any respect or do you assume his stoop was injury-related?
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2:31 |
: So like… I don’t assume a 100/0 view of that is right
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2:31 |
: I’m undoubtedly a lot much less anxious than I’d in any other case be b/c there’s a transparent connection to his damage and his decline
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2:31 |
: and I’m additionally not notably anxious in regards to the varied smooth denials that it was injury-related, no matter, that’s what you’re speculated to say when you’re the staff
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2:32 |
: however I believe sticking your head within the sand is unsuitable too
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2:32 |
: definitely, my base case for him has shifted down barely
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2:33 |
: Leaping in a bit late so undecided if this has been answered, however what do you make of all of the Casas conjecture? Breslow has mentioned a number of occasions that he’s not accessible and isn’t being shopped however folks nonetheless appear to assume the other.
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2:33 |
: talking of a participant who the M’s supposedly didn’t need for Castillo!
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2:33 |
: Now that you’ve got been doing the free agent predictions for a couple of years, have you ever thought-about doing a classes discovered recap? Stuff you bought proper/unsuitable, issues the group bought proper/unsuitable, what has modified over time, and so on?
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2:33 |
: I did one among these final yr
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2:33 |
: I’m going to do a halfway ‘right here’s how our predictions have executed’ check-in this week, as properly
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2:34 |
: and yeah, anticipate extra articles of me interested by my very own course of. it’s a pleasant approach to fill content material voids within the offseason and other people appear to get pleasure from studying them
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2:34 |
: You nearer to Steamer (119 wRC+) or ZiPS (108 OPS+) for Jackson Chourio subsequent yr?
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2:34 |
: Within the occasion Vladdy cant attain a long run take care of Toronto? what are the possibilities the FO simply retains him the entire yr in hopes that one good yr will save their jobs?
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2:34 |
: I believe that query is principally unimaginable to reply with out figuring out their file in July
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2:35 |
: Given the Orioles appear utterly disinterested in spending massive cash, how lengthy is it earlier than groups begin sniffing round Rutschman and/or Henderson? Not saying they need to commerce them however with their prospect depth, I might see Baltimore at the very least contemplating it.
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2:35 |
: O/U on years till I get traded? I need my cash they usually arent giving it to me
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2:35 |
: I don’t assume they will afford to do it
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2:35 |
: even when they simply hold him till FA
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2:35 |
: buying and selling him would inevitably make hte staff worse within the brief run
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2:35 |
: b/c like… that’s how trades of superstars work
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2:35 |
: even when you ‘win’ it, you win it in years of management, not yr one WAR
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2:36 |
: and I don’t assume this entrance workplace would survive doing a re-teardown
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2:36 |
: whenever you aren’t successful playoff video games with the very best participant in your staff doing extremely properly, eliminating that dude doesn’t sign ‘we actually care about successful playoff video games’
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2:36 |
: perhaps if they’ve extra postseason success earlier than then?
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2:37 |
: As a Crimson Sox fan and an English main, I can’t imagine I didn’t know that Hanley Ramirez was initially speculated to be named Hamlet (per Jay). What a superb factor.
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2:37 |
: That’s certainly glorious
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2:37 |
: I had no thought
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2:37 |
: Is the Arenado commerce hypothesis probably the most speak ever a couple of pseudo-salary dump that by no means truly occurs?
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2:38 |
: I nonetheless assume it’s gonna occur, however man, I’m not so certain that he desires it to occur
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2:38 |
: like, turning down the commerce to the astros to ‘let the market develop’ dude you’re not a free agent
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2:39 |
: I incessantly see folks say somebody like Kyle Tucker or Vlad Jr. could be loopy to not go to free company at this level. Am I actually loopy for pondering these individuals are not adequately accounting for threat? I’d determine that the draw back threat of getting a yr marked by damage or worse than common efficiency would at the very least incentivize attempting to get the bag now.
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2:39 |
: I’d by no means attain free company
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2:39 |
: I’d be hitting the bid so exhausting I’d create a gust of wind
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2:40 |
: now, I’d absolutely struggle for a great bid first, however like…. at my degree of threat aversion, I’d take an extension for certain
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2:40 |
: baseball gamers should not typically as threat averse as I’m. they in all probability wouldn’t be baseball gamers in the event that they have been
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2:40 |
: Rhodium – rhodium and Luis Castillo are roughly the identical worth by weight. Luis Castillo’s contract might pay for lots of catalytic converters and is subsequently extra helpful than any measly baseball participant.
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2:40 |
: man perhaps the O’s ought to simply supply the Mariners some rhodium mining rights
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2:40 |
: am I unsuitable to actually not like the thought of Arraez to NYY like has floated round right this moment? that’s including a ton of issues to your staff so as to add a singles hitter within the worst ballpark in baseball for lefty singles hitters
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2:41 |
: I believe that Arraez is a man who’s largely proof against park results b/c of his wild batted ball distribution
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2:41 |
: however uh yeah, I believe he’s a very dangerous match
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2:41 |
#BringBackNotGraphs |
2:41 |
: No no. I’m dangerous at math. His weight in gold is $8 million. However nonetheless…
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2:41 |
: whoops, forgot to put up that one
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2:42 |
: and yeah, I pretty rapidly realized that GPU’s are in all probability pretty heavy
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2:42 |
: If not one of the Cardinal veterans had no-trade clauses, who do you assume they’d have moved this offseason?
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2:42 |
: I believe simply Arenado, truthfully
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2:42 |
: if i’m them, I’m inquisitive about dealing Grey on the deadline if the wage dump they’re so into is already executed
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2:43 |
: Do the Crimson sox want one other addition or is Walker Buehler going to be sufficient? There are query marks however Houck, Crochet, Buehler, Bello and one thing from Giolito might be excellent.
|
2:43 |
: I believe I just like the rotation sufficient as is
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2:43 |
: it’s form of protection in depth; I believe dangerous outcomes on ALL these guys on the similar time are unlikely
|
2:43 |
: even when one or two are very more likely to end up badly
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2:44 |
: if I have been the Sox and seeking to enhance, I’d care much more in regards to the infield
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2:45 |
: I’m fairly down on Story, and I actually assume they’re setting themselves as much as find yourself having to play Rafaela within the infield once more
|
2:45 |
: Relating to the Vlad/Tucker about to hit free company dialogue…Are there insurance coverage markets that they will faucet into and get a payout within the occasion that they get injured or underperform, and may’t safe a $100m plus contract, for instance? I assume one thing like this should be utilized, when the possible future earnings are so nice…
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2:45 |
: maybe there are, however properly, an extension is form of like insurance coverage too
|
2:45 |
: so now we’re simply arguing over what sort of insurance coverage to take and which pays higher
|
2:45 |
: or, which is less expensive, somewhat
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2:45 |
: I don’t know the reply to that… however my level is that I’d need insurance coverage
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2:46 |
: Do you assume groups care that reneging on already established offers to signal Sasaki may harm their status with IFAs? Or do Latin youngsters have so little leverage that it wouldn’t actually matter
|
2:46 |
: mmmm…. I believe that they could, however I believe ‘sorry, we’ll discover some approach to make this best for you or at the very least suggest you to our associates on different groups however this man threw an ideal recreation after which one other 8 good innings’ might be an affordable excuse
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2:47 |
: like, in the event that they’re doing it for some rando, not a lot
|
2:47 |
: however this dude’s well-known
|
2:47 |
: Lot of analyst anticipate a regression from Ramos. Do you see that?
|
2:47 |
: I believe it is dependent upon what you imply by regression
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2:48 |
: I’m larger than Steamer’s 107 wRC+
|
2:49 |
: ZiPS is in between his 2024 and Steamer’s projected 2025 and htinks he’ll be an above common participant
|
2:49 |
: I believe that’s fairly near my view. He’s at all times going to have some strikeout points b/c of his swing, however i feel that his present strategy does a great job of maximizing his abilities, and you’ll’t faux bat velocity, the man has energy
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2:49 |
: What when you took all the carbon out of Luis Castillo and compressed it to make a diamond?
|
2:50 |
: oh man, this bought me questioning how dense diamonds are
|
2:50 |
: not practically as dense as I assumed is the reply there
|
2:50 |
: Couldn’t they signal Bregman for 2b and shift Albies to ss?
|
2:50 |
: mmm… I don’t assume Albies oculd play brief
|
2:51 |
: I’m not saying he’s an terrible defender, however he’s not an unquestionably nice second baseman as it’s, and his weakest side could be his throwing arm
|
2:52 |
: doesn’t scream ‘transfer me to shortstop’ for me
|
2:52 |
: Have you ever appeared into Eugenio Suarez’s resurgence, or ought to I say demigod of scorching streaks? There’s a narrative about swing and recreation prep modifications made, however how a lot of that efficiency can we truly to proceed seeing?
|
2:52 |
: the man may be very streaky
|
2:53 |
: however I’d identical to to level out that he’s a reasonably respectable participant on a regular basis
|
2:53 |
: on the finish of these streaks
|
2:53 |
: and that I’d anticipate him to be fairly respectable once more in 2025
|
2:53 |
: I bear in mind final yr I mentioned that the marketplace for an above common common should be fairly mild b/c of how little Suarez moved for
|
2:54 |
: and plenty of chatters (not everybody, clearly) have been like ‘no that man is dangerous’
|
2:54 |
: streaky gamers are exhausting to judge
|
2:54 |
: Orioles sending a depth sp like Kremer and center infielder like Ramon Urias for Luis Castillo? Do you see this as practical?
|
2:54 |
: nope, not anymore than I did 45 minutes in the past on this very chat
|
2:54 |
: Ha-Seong Kim to the Yankees to play 2b makes an excessive amount of sense to not occur. They’ve an enormous gap at 2b or 3b as a result of Jazz’s versatility. Do you assume there’s a match?
|
2:55 |
: so, that is solely hypothesis
|
2:55 |
: but when I’m Kim, I need to both play shortstop or safe the bag
|
2:55 |
: b/c his worth is rather a lot larger if he can deal with brief. So a pillow contract the place he’s enjoying shortstop? sure
|
2:55 |
: a five-year deal for some huge cash to play second base in the big apple? sure
|
2:56 |
: a brief deal to play a less-valuable place on a staff the place you may get moved round greater than you’d favor? not offered
|
2:56 |
: mix that with the truth that the Yankees appear to be appearing cap-constrained, and I don’t assume it’s possible
|
2:56 |
: it’s a great on-field match however I don’t assume it matches what Kim’s preferrred enjoying scenario is
|
2:57 |
: If there was one all-baseball mvp would you may have gone Choose or Ohtani this season?
|
2:57 |
: I believe I’d go Ohtani b/c 50/50 was simply so dang cool
|
2:57 |
: however realistically, Choose could be the fitting choose, and I believe he’d win
|
2:57 |
: You’re proper to query the Crimson Sox infield scenario. I haven’t been ready to determine simply what it would seem like. The place do you stand on Casas? I’m removed from satisfied that he’s a stud.
|
2:58 |
: I’m not 100% locked in offered or something, however I’d like to have him on my staff
|
2:58 |
: I actually just like the strategy
|
2:59 |
: I’d be anxious about well being
|
2:59 |
: however, I believe I’d somewhat have him than a variety of ALE 1B
|
3:00 |
: all of them besides Vlad, principally
|
3:00 |
: Do you see SD transferring Arraez or Stop earlier than the season begins?
|
3:00 |
: I believe Stop is 50%+ possible
|
3:01 |
: I believe that Arraez doesn’t have a ton of worth in commerce. Not that he’s a nasty participant, to be clear, simply, a 115 wRC+ positionless hitter will not be precisely going to fetch a king’s ransom
|
3:02 |
: Isn’t it usually smarter for groups to attend for spring coaching and 60 day IL placements earlier than buying and selling away gamers?
|
3:02 |
: that’ll occur this yr too, there might be one other wave of trades after roster squeezes come down somehwat
|
3:02 |
: I might see Roki going to the Dodgers, certain, however I don’t imagine within the handshake settlement or something. He looks as if an idiosyncratic man who’s weighing every thing. Do you assume it’s been a honest course of?
|
3:03 |
: and I believe that he’s much more possible than your common NPB celebrity to spurn the large coastal metropolis markets
|
3:03 |
: To be clear, I’m not asking about Eugenio’s season ending numbers. These appear to be inside affordable vary of profession norms. However 2024 noticed him go off and carry out as among the finest hitters in baseball for about 3 months straight. With out wanting it up, i assume that’s the longest stretch with that form of manufacturing since his 49 HR season with the enjoyable ball of 2019.
|
3:03 |
: Oh yeah, I imply, I simply consider him as very streaky
|
3:03 |
: I don’t assume he’ll proceed that manufacturing. and possibly, there’ll be a month the place you’re like ‘we can’t afford to maintain enjoying this man’
|
3:03 |
: after which a month the place nobody can get him out
|
3:03 |
: Will extra groups undertake a 6 man rotations?
|
3:04 |
: yeah. I believe that it is a long-term development (6-man reg season, 4-man playoffs) that can proceed to speed up
|
3:04 |
: If I’m right in hoping the Crimson Sox OF in 2025 is Duran in CF with Anthony and Abreu manning the corners then I don’t see a spot for Rafaela, who I believe is definitely Miles Straw in disguise.
|
3:04 |
: I’m undecided on Rafaela quickly
|
3:04 |
: I believe I’d favor 4 guys for 3 spots b/c it leaves room for one among them to bust
|
3:04 |
: but when they’re actually resource-constrained and will get a fantastic infielder for Rafaela, I say do it
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3:05 |
: to me, although, their best path ahead is to only not do something
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3:05 |
: outfield-wise
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3:05 |
: alright, on that observe, I’m gonna head out and make some lunch
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3:05 |
: let’s chat once more quickly, by which I imply on recurrently scheduled Mondays
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3:05 |
: and have an exquisite week, everybody
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Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He could be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.