Ben Clemens’ Commerce Worth Collection Chat – 7/26/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome

Ben Clemens: For immediately’s chat, I’m going to be going deeper on each query than regular. I think about quite a lot of the questions are related (what about participant x, why was participant y ranked like that, and many others) so I’m going to attempt to go somewhat bit extra in depth on every one, so anticipate longer solutions and somewhat extra proof than regular. I’m gonna attempt to pack this with content material as a lot as I can for the following hour and a half or so

Ben Clemens: Let’s get began

Nate: No point out of Devers appeared a bit stunning to me. Beneath crew management for a decade, nonetheless solely 27, persistently posting batting strains 20-40% higher than common. Not a unbelievable defender however not a complete butcher. What was your reasoning there

Ben Clemens: Yeah, loads of Devers questions, so I’ll go right here first

Ben Clemens: I can inform you particularly why he’s not on the checklist within the 40’s close to another stars: I in contrast him to Harper and Seager and that comparability was not that near me. I’d favor each of their offensive strains to his, I don’t assume he has extra defensive worth, the contract isn’t higher. So like…. he can’t be forward of these guys

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he’s a foul hitter however I feel he’s a contact overrated. Like in 2024, he’s the Twelfth-best hitter in baseball, in his finest 12 months

Ben Clemens: Over the previous 2 years, 18th, 3 years thirteenth, 4 years fifteenth

Ben Clemens: very nice participant, completely, however he’s, such as you mentioned, 20-40% above common

Ben Clemens: On the Harper level particularly, I don’t assume Devers has extra defensive worth than Harper. He’s a below-average third baseman, most likely a 30 on the scouting scale, persistently huge adverse grades on each metric and the attention take a look at agrees.

Ben Clemens: We’ve talked rather a lot about how first base and DH are most likely over-penalized by positional changes, and I positively take that under consideration in my rankings, I’m not simply WAR

Ben Clemens: and if Harper is over-penalized, a hitter like Devers is the form of man who’s over-rewarded. A minus defender at a not-super-challenging spot. Realistically I feel he’s equally helpful defensively. However he’s seven runs higher than Harper in DEF over the lats two years. So I utilized a little bit of a success there to true the whole lot up

Ben Clemens: As for why he wasn’t within the honorable mentions part, he simply may have been, I simply had to attract the road someplace. He had the biggest contract and lowest projections so I simply lopped him off hte checklist

Ben Clemens: He was positively thought-about

Kenshin Kawakami: Is that this going to be a 1 hour EDLC victory lap? Effectively deserved imo

Ben Clemens: Nah, I be ok with Elly’s rating and eh, I feel my work there’s accomplished

Kenshin Kawakami: Does Michael Harris fall down the checklist final 12 months if there’s no enchancment in both his plate self-discipline or his floor ball price? Flooring continues to be so excessive however the bay concurrently feels fairly shaky but in addition not close to its ceiling

Ben Clemens: 100% sure. Harris was a very arduous participant to position, and whereas Robert produced the strongest disagreements as a result of he’s a polarizing participant, I feel that individuals’s disagreements on Harris may need been better when it comes to absolute worth

Ben Clemens: I’m all the time attempting to handle my very own biases on this train as a result of that’s actually a simple method to look foolish, and I positively have a tendency to love defensive gamers on cost-controlled offers rather a lot, even when their hitting is inconsistent. Have a look at the place i had Ke’Bryan Hayes all these years

Ben Clemens: Not all groups worth the identical issues however loads of groups assume that approach as properly, and Harris is only a actually nice mixture of a ton of issues which are good in isolation

Ben Clemens: It’s additionally considered one of these circumstances the place the projections aren’t anxious about him hitting, or not less than they assume he’s most likely nonetheless a 3.5-4 win participant even when he doesn’t fully come again offensively, after which it’s a must to ask your self how a lot you belief the projections

Ben Clemens: I feel that if it’s 2025 and he’s nonetheless hitting under league common b/c he can’t carry the ball, these projections gained’t nonetheless be there

Ben Clemens: so this downside goes to care for itself

Orange Fireplace: Self-centered query by this Astros fan:  Why didn’t Yainer Diaz make the checklist, whilst a HM?

Ben Clemens: He was on my checklist, however fairly far down. I’m not a believer within the protection in any respect, and I don’t actually assume the Astros are both

Ben Clemens: That places a LOT of stress on his bat, as a result of I’m simply skeptical that he can keep behind the plate in the long term

Ben Clemens: I didn’t assume he cleared the bar for me there

Ben Clemens: I feel that Logan O’Hoppe might be a extra fascinating catcher title I left off, and that one was fairly cuspy for me. Comparable points to Diaz the place I’m anxious that he may not be capable to keep at catcher in the long term. He appears under common form of throughout the board behind the plate. However I like his bat higher

Eli: Re:Volpe’s rating – are you factoring within the Cashman regime’s ability in breaking younger hitters (Fowl, Frazier, Sanchez, Torres, Andujar, and many others.)?

Ben Clemens: Haha no, I didn’t issue that in. I truly discovered Volpe to be actually fascinating as a result of I used to be shocked how many individuals actually like him. I’m not tremendous offered, I persistently rank good-glove shortstops extremely on this checklist as a result of I feel that matches their real-world evaluations however I’m not a believer in Volpe’s bat

Ben Clemens: I feel that the trade is, not less than greater than I’m

Ben Clemens: One factor that’s actually tough to weight is that generally prospects simply don’t hit for a 12 months or two as a result of they’re unhealthy, and generally they don’t hit for a 12 months or two after which they simply repair it

Ben Clemens: clearly you need to make some form of probabilistic estimation and hold altering it as you get extra proof, however that’s what the projection techniques do, they usually certain appear to nonetheless like Volpe. I weight current efficiency a bit extra closely than the fashions do, I’d say, however actually a number of groups nonetheless assume he’ll hit

Phil: Any consideration to Houck? One other ongoing breakout, however I really feel like I’d take him over most pitchers with fewer years of crew management remaining.

Ben Clemens: Yeah he was #51

Ben Clemens: I feel he’s basically indistinguishable from the pitchers on the backside of the checklist when it comes to worth. Somebody needed to be the primary out and this was my finest guess at an ordering, I don’t really feel assured in it in any respect

Dan: When you tried to commerce a participant on the checklist 1 for 1 for an additional participant on the checklist how probably would each groups say no since you’re taking an even bigger threat buying and selling away the star you realize?

Ben Clemens: Gary Clever requested me this query on Twitter and I assumed it was actually good

Ben Clemens: I feel each groups would most likely say no nearly all the time (he requested particularly about Skubal for Gilbert)

Ben Clemens: There’s some actual ‘the issue with lemons’ impact right here the place in the event that they’re buying and selling their man, what do they learn about him that you just don’t?

Ben Clemens: and likewise, there’s some endowment impact: you’re keen on your man, you’ve seen him in crew conferences, he’s within the cage at 6 am after a loss, gotta spherical up on his worth b/c of that

Ben Clemens: I feel that actually retains problem trades from taking place extra

Harry: To have Tatis at 6, which it appears I discover way more cheap than others, meaning you assume he’s minimal prime 10, however most likely a prime 5 place participant within the sport, proper?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I do on a go-forward foundation. Most likely….. fifth? Proper round there not less than

Johny5Alive: Ought to lindor have been larger? He’s been the very best participant within the NL since Could. I do know there was given about defensive regression, however I dunno. The person would possibly find yourself within the checklist of prime 10 SS ever to play.

Ben Clemens: I feel that you can feasibly transfer that group of Harper/Lindor/Seager/Marte round fairly a bit on right here. One factor that’s implied in these is that I’m guessing, and I’m attempting to place myself in individuals’s footwear as a result of I’m actually not speaking to each crew, and even when I did it’s not like I’m sneaking into their workplaces and taking a snapshot of the massive ‘commerce worth’ board they hold

Ben Clemens: The place groups truly worth gamers like this isn’t easy to peg, although I feel there’s loads of proof that they do deal with focus of WAR as useful unbiased of surplus worth

Ben Clemens: Simply have a look at each instances Juan Soto bought traded, or Mookie Betts getting traded with one 12 months left on his deal, and many others.

Ben Clemens: That mentioned, there’s no formulation, you realize? I attempted to calibrate however I could possibly be off 15 spots in both path simply

Ozzie: The Orioles have 5 gamers on the checklist, and 4 extra within the “promising youth” part of the Honorable Point out. Does any crew evaluate to that mixture  of energy and depth?

Ben Clemens: No, proper now they’re head and shoulders forward of everybody else on this

Ben Clemens: I feel that makes for an fascinating job for the entrance workplace. They’ve racked up essentially the most theoretical worth within the sport. Can they discover a method to flip it into on-field success?

Dan: Is Skenes already so good he can’t probably rank larger on this checklist in future years? He can solely enhance a lot however can’t cut back his damage threat and gained’t give extra low-cost years of management.

Ben Clemens: I feel he’d should do one thing historic to maneuver any larger

Ben Clemens: However like I mentioned, that’s not a consensus opinion. I feel he’s a consensus prime 5 man, and I imply, not getting traded so the precise placement isn’t all that significant. Some individuals have him #1 already I’d say

Simon: Garrett Crochet’s total innings workload/damage historical past has so many pink flags on paper, however once I truly watch him pitch it appears like a man that could possibly be the league’s finest LHP rapidly. Was there any divide between how conventional scouts vs.  entrance workplace execs felt about him?

Ben Clemens: You recognize, it didn’t actually come up as a result of the group of pitchers I’ve round him in expertise simply all had yet another 12 months of crew management

Ben Clemens: I feel that if this was a prime 70 or one thing, I might have had much more discussions about Crochet

Ben Clemens: However principally I by no means had him within the prime 50 and other people had been identical to ‘yeah this is smart, he’s most likely simply off’

Air Yordan: Does doing this checklist change how you’d method the draft for those who had been a GM? Which facet do you fall on: pitching prospects break so give attention to faculty bats OR pitching is so useful when it’s developed that it’s price emphasizing within the draft. I’ve modified my thoughts on this quite a few instances however often find yourself considering it simply makes far more sense to give attention to bats

Ben Clemens: I feel it could rely rather a lot on the place I felt my specialties had been

Ben Clemens: Like, principle’s all properly and good, but when I’m the Mariners or Guardians, I most likely need to lean pitching the place I can b/c I do know my crew can develop them

Ben Clemens: In a vacuum, I feel I’d lean in direction of hitting. The O’s (and Cubs 2016, and many others) mannequin nonetheless feels very stable to me

Ben Clemens: however I might have taken Crews over Skenes final 12 months and look how that’s panned out

Ben Clemens: You may’t simply reflexively be just one or the opposite

Visitor: Does Witt’s contract make him roughly useful than if he hadn’t signed it?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, extra I’d say

Ben Clemens: at minimal two additional years, and two years the place he’ll be at peak age, and at cheap charges

Ben Clemens: Okay, there have been a bunch of Jarren Duran questions however I couldn’t discover a good consultant one which lined him broadly, so let’s simply discuss him

Ben Clemens: I positively had Duran within the prime 50 at numerous level

Ben Clemens: On the final name I did, he was within the 51-60 vary, I neglect precisely the place, and after we had completed going over the fellows I preferred greater than my contact and the fellows he preferred greater than I did (Skenes, it’s all the time Skenes), I used to be asking him for some names simply off of it

Ben Clemens: “hey, will I really feel dumb for not having x man in”

Ben Clemens: I introduced up Duran and he principally mentioned eh, you can go both approach and I’d be high-quality

Ben Clemens: That’s just about how I really feel

Ben Clemens: I point out yearly that there’s far much less gradation that far down the checklist

Ben Clemens: I’m hyper conscious of Duran’s season b/c he’s principally single-handedly carrying my fantasy crew, and it’s been actually enjoyable to look at, I used to be shocked in 21 and 22 when he simply couldn’t break in

Ben Clemens: I feel that projections are rightly skeptical of him due to the inconsistent PT and very long time to interrupt out, I positively had him larger on the checklist than a uncooked rating would

Ben Clemens: the preliminary formulation I used to begin working off of blends projected surplus worth, projected WAR underneath crew management (with some changes for place and substitute stage), and peak WAR

Ben Clemens: and Duran checked in proper round Spencer Steer (shout out to sadtrombone), Sal Frelick, Yainer Diaz, names like that

Ben Clemens: I don’t agree with that, I feel he’s higher, although I feel he’s extra like a 120 wRC+ hitter with 55 LF protection than what he’s doing this 12 months

Ben Clemens: you realize, right here’s a great comparability for you: Bryan Reynolds

Ben Clemens: 2021 was the 12 months Kevin Goldstein and I did these rankings collectively and we left Reynolds off

Ben Clemens: he completely shoved that 12 months, .302/.390/.522 and plus protection in middle, 6.3 WAR

Ben Clemens: he’s been a 120 wRC+ hitter with minus protection in left since then, price 7.2 WAR in three years and 1700 PA

Ben Clemens: I don’t really feel significantly unhealthy about leaving Reynolds off the checklist, although he positively may have been on the tail finish

Effectively-Beered Englishman: I suppose Robert and Skubal are the very best guys who we’d truly see traded within the subsequent 1-2 years? Except one thing goes catastrophically mistaken someplace?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I feel I agree with that sentiment wanting by way of the names. The one different consideration is among the two Mariners SP’s in a commerce for a giant bat

Ben Clemens: like Gilbert for Vlad, Bo, and Yimi Garcia to essentially go for it this 12 months, who says no

Ben Clemens: (most likely the Mariners)

Hunter: Riley Greene has principally solely performed any Heart as a result of Parker Meadows couldn’t stick within the huge leagues, how a lot does being left discipline solely sooner or later change issues for him? I do assume he may stick in middle in a park with a smaller outfield.

Ben Clemens: That is one thing I considered a great bit in figuring out Greene’s worth

Ben Clemens: I feel that being middle discipline succesful actually helps him. I agree with you that he’s most likely left discipline solely given the Tigers’ circumstances however having the ability to stand in middle when needed, and having the nook outfield protection per that (as in he’s a plus nook man) helps out rather a lot for me

Ben Clemens: I really feel like for those who’re common or under in a nook, properly, that principally works out to zero defensive worth

RetireNutting: If Skenes does win ROY how far again does he fall on the checklist when the Pirates lose a 12 months?

Ben Clemens: I feel I discussed this within the blurb, however I’m assuming that 12 months is gonna go away

Ben Clemens: Doesn’t actually have an effect on my rating, as a result of it’s principally priced in already

Ben Clemens: brb, gonna seize some espresso

Visitor: Is there something a reliever may do to make it into the highest. 50?

Ben Clemens: Truthfully, not with the best way baseball works not

birds: A majority of final 12 months’s checklist didn’t make this 12 months’s checklist.  So participant worth, even that of the ~5% most precious gamers within the sport, is that fleeting?

If the asset itself goes to depreciate that quick, then the one motive to commerce for a prime participant is for those who assume it’s going to offer an exterior profit, e.g. a championship and advertising?

Ben Clemens: Effectively, sure and no

Ben Clemens: I’ve final 12 months’s checklist up, and out of the highest 25, listed below are the gamers who missed this 12 months

Ben Clemens: Wander Franco (yup), Sean Murphy (bizarre circumstances), the 4 TJ pitchers, Bo Bichette, Framber Valdez

Ben Clemens: oh and Zac Gallen, sneaking in on the finish there

Ben Clemens: so a few of these are simply the worth getting realized

Ben Clemens: Bichette and Gallen particularly, hey they had been 2.5 years to free company so 40% of their juice was within the lats 12 months

Ben Clemens: sorry, my canine’s remedy gained’t give itself

Ben Clemens: anyway, yeah, the underside of the checklist is gonna be fairly uneven I feel

Ben Clemens: And the highest is pretty secure, excluding accidents

Ben Clemens: I feel that’ll most likely all the time be the case. The bizarre circumstances are the Juan Soto sorts the place they’re so good they need to be close to the highest however so near free company that in a 12 months the image will probably be very totally different

Conor: Questioning about how shut Nimmo was to honorable point out standing, he’s been price 4-5+ WAR for the previous 3 years (on tempo for this 12 months). His contract isn’t a behemoth both and he has crew management by way of 2030.

Ben Clemens: Simply may have been on there

Ben Clemens: The HM checklist was almost so long as the precise checklist so I had to attract the road someplace

Ben Clemens: however I consider commerce worth and MLB worth usually as usually distributed… there are lots of people within the Nimmo/Devers vary

Ben Clemens: good participant, this man on this deal could be in your subsequent championship crew

Ben Clemens: however most likely not the make-or-break commerce chip

Playing cards fan: Does Dylan Stop make your checklist now:)

Ben Clemens: Haha nope, regardless that I’ve a comfortable spot for Stop as a result of he’s considered one of my early article targets

Ben Clemens: I keep in mind writing about his weird lack of fastball leads to 2020, and it looks as if he agreed b/c he’s modified his fastball form round rather a lot

Ben Clemens: all the time rooting for him to succeed, even when I assumed his slider poem was somewhat excessive

Ben Clemens: However yeah, simply not sufficient time left

Oddball Herrera: You’re extra bullish on Carroll than I’m…if you talked to individuals, was there any concern that, as we’ve seen this 12 months, fringe energy guys turn into approach much less useful when MLB messes with the baseball?  If MLB retains tinkering god is aware of what you’re getting out of those sorts 12 months to 12 months

Ben Clemens: I didn’t hear that concern particularly, I feel b/c Carroll can be superior as a doubles hitter. I feel the damage considerations and the massive process-related droop anxious individuals much more

Ben Clemens: Prefer it’d be one factor if his batted ball high quality was precisely the identical and issues simply weren’t leaving the park

Ben Clemens: However that’s probably not what’s occurring right here

Jordan: Hello Ben – to what extent do you worth gamers with the next ground however decrease ceiling (like Zach Neto) as in comparison with gamers with extra clear flaws, however the next ceiling if they will determine it out (like Oneil Cruz)?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s clear from my cross-checking that I worth ceiling extra extremely than the trade as a complete

Ben Clemens: yearly the secure protection guys are persistently flagged by individuals I discuss to as needing to go up some

Ben Clemens: If I had a one-line method to clarify how this works, I’d positively give it to you. A part of the “artwork” of it, and truthfully I’m undecided I’m nice at it b/c there’s no goal method to decide, is that I simply have the one instrument on the finish of the day

Ben Clemens: to indicate how I take into consideration these guys

Ben Clemens: however I can use no matter I would like in attending to that worth

Oaktown Blues: When you had made a model of this checklist this previous low season, would Zack Gelof have made the lower? Clearly his worth has taken a significant hit this 12 months.

Ben Clemens: Most likely an honorable point out. I had him within the first lower on right here when it comes to ‘let’s throw a bunch of names on the wall, run the numbers, and see what sticks’

Ben Clemens: he didn’t stick

Ben Clemens: But it surely’s not like he missed by miles

Ben Clemens: within the uncooked formulation he’s not a ton totally different than, say, Cal Raleigh or Brice Turang

Dan: Do you ever get suggestions that makes you assume the individual youre speaking to is aware of one thing vital in regards to the participant that isn’t publicly identified?

Ben Clemens: Sure. It’s from individuals who belief me to not put that in these rankings, in fact, and I wouldn’t

Ben Clemens: however yeah, that’s occurred

Jeff: How a lot does the market play when factoring in these rankings?  For instance, Nearly each crew may use an improve at SP, however not each crew wants a SS, therefor, with extra competitors, the worth would inflate.

Ben Clemens: Undoubtedly issues

Ben Clemens: I feel that singular abilities form of break that rule, like everybody desires Yordan Alvarez

Ben Clemens: however it nonetheless issues on the margin, for peopel like Skenes, everybody wants an ace badly

Ben Clemens: and it issues somewhat bit extra on the backside of the checklist, such as you higher be a fairly good COF/1B to get on right here

Ben Clemens: b/c tehre’s fixed provide of these sorts

Visitor: Who’s somebody off the checklist who you assume may make a bounce on subsequent 12 months?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, enjoyable one. I’m gonna exclude honorable point out sorts b/c that kinda defeats the aim, I feel

Ben Clemens: I’m shocked I didn’t get extra flak for leaving him off of final 12 months’s checklist, however that seems to have been merited

Ben Clemens: I nonetheless actually consider in his potential, although

Wrights_Back: How will you probably price Skenes so excessive after such a brief physique of labor?     Granted, he’s been superlative, however so have many others in instances previous.     
I suppose one other approach of asking this query is – how do you right for the danger of underperformance?   Eg, with gamers which have various years of expertise, the vary of future outcomes is extra outlined.  
Skenes appears like extra of a lottery ticket at this level.

Ben Clemens: I simply disagree with this premise

Ben Clemens: Like sure, when it comes to efficiency observe report, I’m with you

Ben Clemens: however it’s a must to watch the video games with Skenes

Ben Clemens: if a clone of Mike Trout from 2012 began enjoying tomorrow with no observe report, we’d be like hm, I dunno, small pattern dimension, perhaps this gained’t work

Ben Clemens: however properly, he’d be a clone of Mike Trout

Ben Clemens: it feels extra evident to me in pitching

Ben Clemens: like Skenes’s stuff is simply that good, you don’t must see 100 of his splinkers to realize it’s nice

Ben Clemens: it’s actually a factor, vary of outcomes is large

Ben Clemens: however I feel for pitchers specifically, and for pitchers who achieve fairly apparent methods much more so, you may make judgments rapidly

Ben Clemens: I positively take your level, I simply assume that on this particular case it doesn’t observe

Nate: I might not argue that Austin wells ought to be included, however I can simply see him progressing to the place he’s on the checklist subsequent 12 months. Do you agree?

Ben Clemens: Final lower from the ‘youths’ part of HM’s as a result of there have been simply too many names

Ben Clemens: truly I simply counted, there have been greater than 50 HM’s

Ben Clemens: we’re gonna should do one thing about that for subsequent 12 months

Darb: If PCA places up an 80 wrc+ over the following 12 months is he in rivalry for this checklist?

Ben Clemens: no. I’m prepared to be swayed by knowledge however I don’t see PCA hitting

Ben Clemens: and enjoying full time within the majors for a 12 months and including an 80 wRC+ to his current lackluster batting line will not be gonna push his projected outcomes larger

Oaktown Blues: Anybody have a superlative current stretch (in both path) that made you rethink their placement final minute? Considering Gore’s string of unhealthy begins, or Rooker’s 262 wRC+ in July

Ben Clemens: yeah I positively wasn’t thrilled that Gore bought blown up on Sunday afternoon earlier than my Monday morning article

Ben Clemens: To be trustworthy, that’s one of many holes on this evaluation. I take a while doing the numbers and speaking to individuals, and properly, time passes

Ben Clemens: I attempt to not be too swayed by a couple of weeks of video games b/c I feel this could endeavor to be a secure checklist

Ben Clemens: however issues actually can change rather a lot in a month

Oddball Herrera: Following on Skenes.  I don’t assume there’s a ton of daylight between Skenes and Jobe when it comes to scouting and expertise, but one is an honorable point out and the opposite a prime 10.  Do 12 begins within the majors actually change your worth THAT a lot?

Ben Clemens: I disagree with you on that, and I feel that expertise evaluators would too

Ben Clemens: I’ll provide you with an instance, Steamer initiatives Skenes for a 1.6 decrease ERA

Ben Clemens: I imply, how good are these in-season projections? no concept

Ben Clemens: however I don’t assume it’s like ‘oh these are the identical’

Okra: Are you able to share any suggestions you bought from trade peeps on Strider?  I feel he would fetch a ton if the Braves traded him.

Ben Clemens: Yeah good query

Ben Clemens: I put all of the TJ pitchers collectively and requested peopel what they thought

Ben Clemens: they usually principally mentioned yeah, nobody’s getting traded once they’re in the midst of rehab, even in a world the place everybody was getting traded

Ben Clemens: they’ll certainly resume their locations on the checklist as soon as they’ve made one begin on the main league stage

Ben Clemens: however the info asymmetry is simply approach too huge

Ben Clemens: Commerce for a man the place Braves docs have been dealing with his rehab for a 12 months, after which the Braves are like ‘oh we need to commerce him, give me your finest supply’?

Ben Clemens: I imply, not a 12 months in Strider’s case proper now, however you get the thought

birds: in 2022, 1.5 years of Hader introduced again two 45-grade prospects and main leaguers.  in 2018, three years of Diaz introduced again a 60-grade and a 35+, even with Cano as baggage.  In 2016, a half season of Chapman introduced again a 60-grade, a 40+, and stuff.

These returns appear good in comparison with what I think about the again finish of the highest 50 would return.  Are you actually certain Miller or Clase wouldn’t return a 50-grade man or extra?

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t commerce Jared Jones for Mason Miller, and I feel that if Jared Jones had been available on the market, groups would supply mroe than they might for Miller

Ben Clemens: so yeah, I really feel like I’m proper in that evaluation. Additionally the Diaz commerce was fairly weird, however I feel calling Kelenic a 60 is beneficiant for those who have a look at the general trade view

Ben Clemens: perhaps a 55+ or no matter, and eh, I don’t assume offers like which are taking place anymore

Ben Clemens: the Hader commerce is an efficient instance, if somebody within the prime 50 bought traded for that I’d be like, oh, dang, I feel I misjudged

JDawg: Which 1 participant did your analysis change essentially the most on in both path attributable to crew intel?

Ben Clemens: I’m undecided he moved essentially the most locations on the checklist, however my estimation of his worth moved essentially the most

Ben Clemens: I’ve a basic concept what sort of suggestions I’m getting

Ben Clemens: like, I’m not gonna title any particular groups clearly, however groups behave sure methods, their suggestions is just like the best way they behave

Ben Clemens: the extra analytically inclined, smaller-market groups like the massive contracts much less, so on and so forth

Ben Clemens: everybody, on each side, was like ‘why are you low on Skenes?’

Ben Clemens: and that made me actually sit up and take inventory of what my course of was lacking that two individuals whose views I often use to steadiness one another noticed the identical flaw

Okra: re TJS pitchers & Strider, how do you sq. the suggestions of them being untradable vs the trade customary 2yr contract for TJS rehabbers?  Clearly groups see worth right here.  I perceive the data asymmetry however you get to evaluate medicals earlier than finishing a commerce.

Ben Clemens: eh, present me a TJ commerce and I’ll perhaps rethink. But additionally, I actually don’t have good info there, and I positively don’t get to see the medicals (why would I)

Ben Clemens: and it’s a case the place the medicals could possibly be extraordinarily scary or benign

Ben Clemens: Lot of Stras comps on Skenes, that’s for certain

Cody: I’m actually occupied with how a participant like Wilyer Abreu is valued. Good pop, good eye on the plate, good outfielder with a cannon arm, stable baserunner, can’t hit lefties and strikes out an excessive amount of. Looks like a man with a fairly excessive likelihood of providing you with 10 WAR over the following 5 years, even solely getting 450 plate appearances annually, however the platoon cut up appears fairly insurmountable. I suppose this can be a long-winded method to ask if 1) being an all-around contributor can mitigate the worth hit that huge platoon splits will give, and a pair of) if huge platoon splits are much less of a problem for lefties, since they will nonetheless be extraordinarily productive whereas getting the lion’s share of enjoying time at a place

Ben Clemens: I’ve moved gamers on this basic mould down lately

Ben Clemens: Truthfully that’s been one factor I’ve demonstrably gotten higher at as I’ve repeated the train

Ben Clemens: all-around contributors with out excessive ceilings simply don’t have the worth {that a} naive mannequin would anticipate

Ben Clemens: good groups, the sort who’re in playoff chases and thus seeking to make trades to pay attention worth within the current, are good at getting higher-than-replacement worth out of their roster spots

Ben Clemens: so being a 2 WAR part-time nook man, eh, groups are betting that they will make a 1.5 WAR part-time nook man out of spare elements

Kiermaier’s Piercing Inexperienced Eyes: How intently does the return for Randy match your analysis (HM, luxurious semi-rental) of him this 12 months?

Ben Clemens: Truthfully I haven’t dug into these prospects that a lot

Ben Clemens: I used to be completely exhausted yday after ending the writing for this

Ben Clemens: The writing is sneaky arduous, I feel it was like 18000 phrases or so in per week

Trey: I simply can’t think about a state of affairs the place A Riley, L Webb, M Harris, C Carroll, and R Greene have the next commerce worth than M Betts.  If you’re aiming to win a title in 5 years… certain. However for 2025, Id commerce 2 of any of any of these guys for Betts yesterday.  Is the philosophy right here to position heavy emphasis on a down-the-road dynasty method?

Ben Clemens: Yeah balancing the now and the longer term is clearly not simple

Ben Clemens: and I’m undecided I did a great job of it in any respect

Ben Clemens: however one factor that makes me assume I did is that peopel are very satisfied that Decide ought to both a)not be on the checklist or b)be larger

Ben Clemens: if everybody was a technique, I’d really feel worse

Ben Clemens: I feel you’re underrating Logan Webb, I positively was

Ben Clemens: I keep in mind I ran the uncooked numbers and he got here out as the highest pitcher by a mile

Ben Clemens: and I used to be like huh, f4, there should be some cell that’s sticking and never calculating proper

Ben Clemens: however no, he’s simply truly raelly nice?

Ben Clemens: and yeah, ‘in case you are aiming to win a title in 5 years’ appears to be the best way entrance workplaces are working, which feels good to me

Ben Clemens: that’s what I’d be attempting to maximise, five-year profitable share or no matter

Ben Clemens: 5-year anticipated playoff spots weighted by byes

Ben Clemens: I feel there’s proof to say that groups behave that approach, and it’s additionally what I’d do, in order that’s the best way I lean within the rankings

Visitor: I’m gonna take a crack at two guys I feel may sneak on subsequent 12 months : Wells & Langeliers

Ben Clemens: Yeah, actually in vary

Ben Clemens: the reality is, participant ability varies a ton, it’s arduous to foretell, there are positively tons of cheap solutions her

Okra: Any modifications you’d make to the checklist now after listening to all of the reader suggestions?

Ben Clemens: Oh good query. Mmmmm, perhaps I’d swap in a single Crimson Sox man, both Duran or Houck, to the highest 50 someplace for optics’ sake

Ben Clemens: Like, I actually don’t assume I’m mistaken in treating them in that mass of gamers who may simply be on or off the checklist

Ben Clemens: however I may do higher in calibrating who, in that group of individuals I’m selecting between, I choose as a tiebreaker

Ben Clemens: apart from that… perhaps I’d have Mookie somewhat bit larger?

Ben Clemens: I may need Bailey and Contreras a bit larger too. I ranked them the place I did and thought to myself ‘i guess individuals will probably be skeptical’ and nobody is so perhaps I didn’t push the envelope sufficient

Tyler: Not commerce worth, but when the contracts are the identical, would you somewhat signal Ha-Seong Kim or Willy Adames for the following 8 years?

Ben Clemens: fast hitter: Adames I feel however it’s shut

Ben Clemens: Adames is underrated, he’s like 95% of Francisco Lindor. 5% is rather a lot on the prime finish however an important defender with an above common bat at quick is a very nice participant

Ben Clemens: I’m much less satisfied by Kim’s hitting, they’re the identical age, and I don’t assume he’s essentially a greater defender

rtjr: what about mitch keller

Ben Clemens: Simply pulling up my preliminary rankings right here to offer you an concept

Ben Clemens: Keller was round #100 for me

Ben Clemens: and by no means actually entered the dialogue for that group of pitchers on the finish of the checklist

Ben Clemens: i don’t assume he’s massively totally different than quite a lot of the 40-100 vary, like I feel he’s proper in there general

Ben Clemens: the lengthy doldrums instances, and the truth that I don’t precisely know what his carrying instrument continues to be, are why I didn’t put him on right here

Mike Trout: I see this concept rather a lot that Ohtani is hitting higher as a result of he isn’t pitching, however his wRC+ final 12 months was 180 vs. 185 this 12 months. Is it actually that vital?

Ben Clemens: I feel he appears higher course of clever

Ben Clemens: his statcast numbers usually agree

Ben Clemens: additionally he was shut down from pitching for a part of final 12 months

Ben Clemens: however greater than that…. most individuals who put up a 180 wRC+ season are fortunate and see it fall off the following 12 months. he didn’t. perhaps I’m studying an excessive amount of into it however eh, it’s a must to learn issues into it

Murray: If Gunner indicators 12yr for 600mil tomorrow, w/ no choose outs, How does that have an effect on the rating?

Ben Clemens: I imply, he wouldn’t be primary anymore, however I’d 100% nonetheless have him ranked

gman: how a lot do you issue within the potential of ABS radically altering catcher worth within the subsequent couple years

Ben Clemens: Truthfully I considered it somewhat bit

Ben Clemens: vis a vis Bailey vs. Contreras, and like Gab Moreno vs. O’Hoppe/Diaz

Ben Clemens: I htink it’s far sufficient off, and the problem system will depart sufficient worth to  receiving nonetheless, that I didn’t work too arduous on it

Visitor: I wanna notice that that is most likely one of many higher written Commerce Worth sequence when it comes to insights into your course of. Actually felt such as you pulled again the curtain. Stuff like Adley DHing vs Catching, Catching Framing variability, the deviations from trade consensus. Respect these notes rather a lot

Ben Clemens: Thanks very a lot

Ben Clemens: It’s all the time a wrestle what to jot down in these blurbs

Ben Clemens: on one hand, it’s my likelihood to encapsulate a participant that everybody’s gonna learn

Ben Clemens: then again, most individuals simply need the checklist

Ben Clemens: so I’m attempting to lean somewhat bit extra into what made them find yourself right here and being a bit extra stick-to-the-facts in the case of the participant’s expertise

Ben Clemens: principally for those who’re studying about your man in a prime 50 commerce worth article, you realize the man’s expertise

Visitor: Ideas on Taj Bradley for this checklist subsequent 12 months?

Ben Clemens: feels 100% resaonable

Ben Clemens: two straight years as an HM ought to inform you that I actually don’t know what to do with him

Cody: Respect you answering my platoon splits query. My learn is that these guys are tremendous useful of their pre-arb years, once they’re functionally spare elements, however not very useful in any respect as soon as they get into Arb2 cash. Abreu caught out to me as an excessive instance bc he’s performed at a ~4 WAR/600 tempo to this point in his profession, working one thing like a 140 wRC+ towards righties and a 15 wRC+ towards lefties—undecided I’ve ever seen greater platoon splits than that. It’s not the purpose of this train, however I’m all the time curious how valuations for bizarre outliers like that differ throughout the league.

Ben Clemens: Yearly, I begin with Paredes on the checklist, and yearly, individuals are like ‘ehhhhhhh’

Ben Clemens: so that ought to provide you with some perception on how groups worth bizarre outliers

Visitor: Has Julio’s inconsistency lowered your opinion of his ceiling? Do you assume he nonetheless has the power to make an adjustment to faucet that ‘perennial MVP candidate’ potential?

Ben Clemens: I imply, yeah

Ben Clemens: if I didn’t I don’t assume I’d have him fifth

Ben Clemens: odds are most likely a bit decrease now? however I don’t assume it’s a significant change

Ben Clemens: I do know ‘have a look at the projections’ is form of a cop-out right here however I do assume it’s a pleasant blanket approach of issues

Ben Clemens: and he’s the Eighth-highest projection over the following 5 years (Gunnar, Witt, Ohtani, Yordan, Tatis, Acuna, Elly, Julio so as)

Visitor: Do you assume we’ll ever have 2 DHs within the prime 10 once more ?

Ben Clemens: Three! Gotta rely Adley

Ben Clemens: or like, rely Adley plus Will Smith as one

Ben Clemens: I feel Yordan is a good guess to be on subsequent 12 months’s checklist relying on what goes down within the subsequent 12 months

Ben Clemens: yearly I run the numbers and I’m like oh look, Yordan Alvarez is nice nonetheless, who knew!

Ben Clemens: Ohtani isn’t actually a DH, you realize?

Ben Clemens: however yeah, golden period of actually titanic DH batting strains

Ben Clemens: do you know that David Ortiz solely had two SEASONS the place his wRC+ was larger than Yordan’s profession mark?

Ben Clemens: and a kind of was an abbreviated 2012

Tyler: Asking for a peek behind the scenes right here, however do you actually do most / all the writing for this in per week? It looks as if you can be fairly assured in not less than 30 names on the checklist by April or so and pre-write these blurbs. Not meant as criticism in any approach (these lists are nice!), simply curious.

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah I write all of it in per week

Ben Clemens: clearly there are some names who would positively been on there, however quite a lot of the blurbs on these guys are much less ‘this man is nice’ and extra ‘right here’s how I considered their last rating’

Ben Clemens: I suck at pre-writing, too

Ben Clemens: I all the time wrote my essays in english class the day earlier than they had been due

J: I feel you need to’ve overruled the trade on the Neto/Tovar/Volpe tier in the identical approach you probably did on Tatis, however in the wrong way. To me it appears clear that these guys ought to be decrease than the Harper/Seager/Marte/Lindor tier

Ben Clemens: I imply, I form of did, simply so we’re clear

Ben Clemens: I suppose I may have gone even additional

Ben Clemens: however these guys, and likewise Masyn Winn and CJ Abrams, I used to be somewhat decrease than the consensus of individuals I talked ot

Effectively-Beered Englishman: Nearly thought Ohtani would are available in #1 due to the enterprise facet of the contract paying for itself. However – in a world the place Ohtani could possibly be traded – are the Dodgers getting income/advantages from his presence there that the majority groups  wouldn’t be getting? Like would the Ohtani promoting cash be flowing into Cincy or Miami, too?

Ben Clemens: Unknowable, however possible that the Dodgers are getting essentially the most out of him

Ben Clemens: I imply the Dodgers simply aren’t buying and selling Ohtani, it’s unthinkable

Ben Clemens: Alright everybody, thanks a ton for chatting with me, I feel I’ve given this about all I’ve

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go… properly, I’m gonna go have a espresso, then do a radio present, then prepare to speak to Ben and Meg on EW

Visitor: Are you gonna do a celebratory lunch ? If that’s the case what ?

Ben Clemens: going out to a enjoyable restaurant in a neighborhood I like tonight

Ben Clemens: oh and I’m enjoying tennis this afternoon, can’t wait

Ben Clemens: Have an exquisite day, everybody, and I hope to speak to you all once more quickly. Oh and sorry I hate your favourite crew and participant.