A brand new-look Astros membership could have a brand new first baseman in 2025, because the group has reportedly agreed to phrases on a three-year, $60MM contract with free agent Christian Walker. The CAA consumer’s deal remains to be pending a bodily.
Walker’s cope with Houston appears to close the door on the opportunity of a reunion with Alex Bregman. Houston not too long ago acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as a part of the commerce sending Kyle Tucker to Chicago, and whereas Paredes may’ve performed first base with Bregman within the fold, he’ll be slotted in at third base with Walker now on board. Equally, this successfully eliminates any probabilities of Nolan Arenado touchdown in Houston — an end result that was all however on the end line earlier than Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix the deal.
Walker, 34 in March, has been a goal of the Astros for a while now, relationship again to the commerce deadline when was reportedly on the prime of their wishlist. A deal didn’t get performed then, clearly, however Houston nonetheless has a necessity at first base after their three-year cope with Jose Abreu virtually instantly imploded on them. Houston first basemen — led by Abreu and Jon Singleton — turned in an terrible .226/.291/.360 batting line on the season in 2024. Walker, in the meantime, hit .251/.335/.468 — virtually a precise match for the .253/.333/.464 line he carries by means of 3171 plate appearances relationship again to the 2019 season.
On prime of his high quality outcomes on the plate, Walker has emerged as arguably the premier defensive first baseman in MLB. He’s gained three straight Gold Glove Awards within the Nationwide League and leads all first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved (33) and Outs Above Common (39) over the previous three seasons. Matt Olson (27) and Carlos Santana (20) are second in these respective metrics. Walker’s defensive excellence at his place has basically been unmatched.
Each Walker and the not too long ago acquired Paredes are robust suits for the Astros, given the brief left area porch on the newly renamed Daikin Park. That’s extra true of Paredes, who’s one of many sport’s most dead-pull and outstanding fly-ball hitters. Walker has extra of an all-fields strategy, however when isolating his splits on pulled batted balls, he ranks fifteenth amongst certified hitters in fly-ball price (32.2%). Put extra merely, Walker might spray the ball round a bit greater than Paredes, however when he does pull the ball, he lifts it much more typically than the overwhelming majority of huge league hitters. For a right-handed hitter with loads of pop in his bat, that ought to play fairly properly with a 314-foot left area porch.
It’s been a bull market free of charge brokers this offseason, and Walker had accordingly been hoping to land a four-year deal. He’ll “settle” for a yr lower than that on a deal that aligns with early expectations. His three-year, $60MM deal is a precise match for our predicted contract again on MLBTR’s annual rating of the offseason’s prime 50 free brokers.
The $20MM annual wage on the contract places the Astros north of the luxurious tax threshold for what can be a second straight season. RosterResource now initiatives them at $244MM of luxurious obligations — $3MM north of the $241MM tier-one threshold for the approaching season. Their bottom-line payroll will rely upon how that $60MM is split over the three years of the deal, but when it’s evenly distributed, Houston can be simply over $225MM by way of precise participant wage. (The posh tax is calculated individually and based mostly on the common annual worth of all of the group’s contracts.)
It’s nonetheless potential the Astros may duck again beneath the tax threshold. They’re reportedly telling groups they don’t intend to commerce prime starter Framber Valdez, however they’ve been exploring the commerce marketplace for reliever Ryan Pressly, who’s set to earn $14MM in 2025. Extra speculatively, they might additionally gauge curiosity in backup catcher Victor Caratini and his $6MM wage, then flip that position over to Cesar Salazar, who hit nicely in Triple-A and the majors this previous season.
Dropping again beneath the tax line, nonetheless, doesn’t seem like any type of mandate. Proprietor Jim Crane mentioned earlier within the winter that he “had the wherewithal” to cross that line and match his 2024 ranges of spending if the fitting state of affairs offered itself. On the time, few envisioned that may entail buying and selling Tucker and letting Bregman stroll, however the Astros have been averse to the kinds of long-term megadeals each gamers — Tucker particularly — are anticipated to command. Houston hasn’t given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract or Jose Altuve’s six-year, $157.5MM extension beneath Crane’s possession, the latter additionally being the most important assure in franchise historical past.
Consequently, the Astros will give out their second three-year deal to a mid-30s first baseman up to now three years. Houston signed the aforementioned Abreu to a $58.5MM deal within the 2022-23 offseason and can nonetheless be paying Abreu $19.5MM this coming season after releasing him on the contract’s midway level. That deal was negotiated by Crane himself and senior advisor Jeff Bagwell, because it got here within the lull between the group’s dismissal of former GM James Click on and the hiring of present GM Dana Brown. Astros followers might really feel some trepidation about one other multi-year deal for a primary baseman nicely previous his thirtieth birthday, although it bears mentioning that Abreu was 36 in yr one in all his contract; Walker can be 36 within the last season of this deal.
Walker declined a $21.05MM qualifying provide from the D-backs on the finish of the season. As such, he’ll value the Astros their second- and fifth-highest picks within the 2025 draft, in addition to $1MM of area from their league-allotted bonus pool for worldwide novice free company. That’s the steepest penalty potential for signing a certified free agent, however the Astros discover themselves in that tier because of exceeding the luxurious tax threshold in 2024. The truth that they exceeded the tax threshold additionally means they’d solely obtain a compensatory choose after the fourth spherical within the now-likely occasion that Bregman indicators elsewhere.
As for the D-backs, they’ll obtain a comp choose after the primary spherical, as a result of Walker’s settlement is for greater than $50MM assured. It’ll be a pleasant parting present, however Walker’s manufacturing can be robust to copy with in-house choices. Former top-10 draft choose Pavin Smith hit nicely in 158 plate appearances final season, however that was his first large league success in elements of 5 seasons and got here in a small pattern. The Snakes can hope for the same late-bloomer trajectory to the one taken by Walker, however odds are in opposition to that. They may look to reasonably priced options in free company (e.g. Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, a Josh Bell reunion) or sift by means of a deep commerce market of first base choices that features Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe and maybe Triston Casas (although the asking value on Casas can be excessive and absolutely value the D-backs some coveted younger pitching).
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the 2 sides have been in superior talks and shutting in on a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic and MLB Community Radio reported that an settlement was in place, pending bodily. USA Right now’s Bob Nightengale reported the phrases.
