When you take a look at the highest of the American League leaderboards this yr, you can be forgiven for treating baseball prefer it’s the NBA, the place the very best gamers all lead their groups to the playoffs. Aaron Decide and Juan Soto are on the identical crew, so after all that crew is the AL’s prime seed. Gunnar Henderson’s Orioles gained a robust 90 video games and took the highest Wild Card spot. The following crew down? Bobby Witt Jr.’s Royals, who notched 86 wins in a breakout efficiency that has Kansas Metropolis within the playoffs for the primary time since profitable the World Collection in 2015.
That places the conflict between the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas Metropolis Royals in stark lighting: Henderson’s superior supporting solid will hope to beat Witt’s sheer brilliance. The celebs shine brightly, and that’s simply how baseball works in October.
That’s not how baseball works usually, although. Good gamers typically drag their groups to the playoffs, however these groups had been virtually all the time fairly good anyway. Sterling particular person efforts nonetheless miss the postseason on a regular basis. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani teamed up for a half-decade and by no means made it to October. The Orioles and Royals are each excess of a frontman and his backup singers. The record of “everybody elses” on this collection is stuffed with gamers who’re stars in their very own proper, and fascinating tales abound.
There’s Adley Rutschman, who earlier than the season felt about as more likely to flip in an MVP-caliber marketing campaign as Henderson. He’d chartered a meteoric course by his first two years, offering a nook outfielder’s bat with elite protection on the hardest place on the diamond. However he’s been worse throughout the board in 2024; he’s barely hitting higher than league common, and his work behind the plate is at a profession low as properly.
Perhaps it’s simply fatigue – no catcher has made extra plate appearances than Rutschman over the previous two years — however he went from a 123 wRC+ on the All-Star Break to a 73 within the second half, and the underlying metrics are ugly. His barrel fee declined from 8.1% to 2.3%, and all the opposite contact high quality metrics agreed. Nonetheless, there’s a sleeping big right here, able to be woke up. Whether or not that may occur this postseason is open for debate.
Or take Cole Ragans, Kansas Metropolis’s recreation one starter. Fifteen months in the past, he received traded for Aroldis Chapman straight up, a minor a part of the Rangers’ commerce deadline enhancements as they chased the playoffs. Ragans has been probably the greatest starters within the recreation for the reason that day he arrived in Kansas Metropolis. He took the ball 32 instances and appears more likely to end within the prime three for Cy Younger in his first full season as an enormous league starter.
Is it somewhat bizarre that he went from roster afterthought to ace? Positive, however the underlying numbers again up his outstanding transformation. He’s lacking bats at an elite degree. He has three wonderful pitches, plus two common ones to interrupt out in case of emergency. Like Rutschman, although, the workload is likely to be catching as much as him. He’s been strolling extra opponents and hanging out fewer of them in August and September; solely a mid-.200s BABIP has saved his ERA from reflecting it. Perhaps pitching on six days relaxation in Sport 1 will assist him recuperate – or possibly he’ll simply be ok to beat fatigue and win anyway. Both means, this would be the greatest problem of his profession.
His Sport 1 opponent, Corbin Burnes, already has a Cy Younger win in his again pocket, and he’ll virtually actually end within the prime 5 this yr as properly. He’s a really totally different pitcher than he was again in 2021, when he struck out greater than a 3rd of opposing batters and led the league in all the things besides innings pitched. Lately, he’s utilizing his cutter to generate weak contact as an alternative of miss bats. His two breaking balls, a hammer curve and tight slider, are nonetheless fearsome. He’s throwing as laborious as ever. He’s extra savvy veteran than younger upstart now, however he nonetheless undoubtedly has the instruments to show in a dominant month and carry the Orioles rotation.
That’s precisely what the O’s hoped for after they traded for Burnes this spring. They wished an ace to pair with their spectacular assortment of younger hitters, so that they broke with their prospect-hugging methods and despatched Joey Ortiz and DL Corridor to Milwaukee in alternate for Burnes. And he’s delivered, giving them a ton of begins, a top-10 innings load, and Cy Younger-caliber ends in these innings. This O’s crew would really feel lots worse with out Burnes; three of the 5 starters of their ultimate rotation are on the IL in the mean time, and the bullpen’s banged up too. Burnes is their finest pitcher by a mile.
That’s not how issues look within the different dugout. Ragans is likely to be his crew’s Sport 1 starter, however Seth Lugo seems to be more likely to beat him in award voting this yr. Lugo toiled for years as a multi-inning reliever for the Mets earlier than getting a shot as a starter final yr in San Diego, at age 33. He parlayed success there right into a $45 million contract and promptly put collectively his finest yr but in Kansas Metropolis.
Lugo succeeds very in a different way than Ragans and Burnes. Whereas seemingly each pitch these two throw is filthy, Lugo will get by with a kitchen-sink method. He throws 9 totally different pitches, so many who our pitch fashions must lump issues collectively for brevity, however we predict just one or two are standouts. There’s the fastball, the sinker, the cutter, the curve, the slurve, the slider, the sweeper, the changeup, and the splitter, and whereas he doesn’t fairly love all of them equally, he throws 5 of them at the very least 10% of the time. His finest pitch is undoubtedly his curveball, an enormous two-plane beast that he can command for a strike or bounce within the grime. However Lugo’s probably not a strikeout man – he punched out fewer hitters than league common this yr – he’s a command and get in touch with high quality man, and this yr’s very good outcomes will be credited in equal elements to preserving the ball within the yard and limiting walks.
The Royals’ third starter, Michael Wacha, is like Lugo with the amount turned down 5%. He throws a ton of pitches, however his solely plus providing is the changeup that made him well-known again in his St. Louis days. He too had an important season in San Diego in 2023 after which signed a multi-year take care of the Royals (his was for barely much less cash than Lugo’s). Wacha limits walks and retains the ball within the yard, solely not fairly as properly. His 3.35 ERA may barely flatter his outcomes this yr, however make no mistake, he’s a strong pitcher, comfortably above common. The Orioles would like to have him, and he’s going to offer the Royals an enormous edge within the recreation he begins.
Total, Kansas Metropolis has a significant edge on the pitching aspect. They’ll deliver the higher starter to the mound in all three video games. Their bullpen isn’t fairly the very best in baseball, nevertheless it’s above common, with deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg main the way in which and a pile of transformed starters behind him. Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, Michael Lorenzen — all of them can go a number of innings if essential, and all of them have been pretty profitable this yr. Angel Zerpa and John Schreiber have been good too. Perhaps this isn’t fairly the 2014 and 2015 Royals ‘pen, nevertheless it’s no strolling meltdown both.
Baltimore, alternatively, launched their Corridor of Fame nearer six days in the past. His alternative is a Phillies castoff, Seranthony Domínguez, who’s beneath alternative degree on the yr and has a 5.33 FIP with the Orioles. Setup man Yennier Cano has seen his stroll fee double since final yr’s breakout efficiency, although I nonetheless assume he’s Baltimore’s finest reliever. Cionel Pérez is the one different man the O’s appear to belief in high-leverage spots, and, uh, he’s hanging out 19.3% of opponents whereas strolling 11.8%. Late-inning leads are going to really feel dicey with out Félix Bautista to wash up the mess.
Fortunately for the Orioles, they make up for Kansas Metropolis’s determined benefit on the pitching aspect with a wall of younger hitting expertise. The Royals are nearer to a one-man present on the plate than any main league crew has a proper to be. They’ve racked up 20 place participant WAR this yr, and Witt has 10.4 of that. The ageless Salvador Perez is the one different Royals hitter to crack the two-win mark, and his backup Freddy Fermin is in third place. Six of their 9 starters posted a wRC+ beneath 100 for them this yr. Yuli Gurriel and Adam Frazier are on a regular basis lineup fixtures proper now. Vinnie Pasquantino has an out of doors probability of taking part in on this collection, at the very least as a pinch-hitter, and he’d comfortably be the third-best participant within the group even when he’s not again to 100%. Witt and Perez have some heavy lifting to do.
In the meantime, Baltimore’s lineup seems to be just like the output of a pc program designed to provide you with younger profitable hitters. Henderson and Rutschman are undoubtedly the primary sights, however Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg had been each distinctive this yr. Cowser may win AL Rookie of the Yr; Westburg’s breakout marketing campaign was interrupted by a damaged hand, however he’s again and batting on the prime of probably the greatest lineups in baseball. Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, two of the highest prospects in baseball, can’t even crack the beginning 9.
Even outdoors of the youth motion, the O’s have some boppers. Anthony Santander hit 44 homers and posted a 129 wRC+, the very best full-season mark of his profession. Ryan O’Hearn crushes righties. Cedric Mullins is extra platoon bat than All-Star lately, however he’s a beneficial rotation participant and a very good defender. Ryan Mountcastle delivers Pasquantino-esque offense at first base, however he’s one thing just like the seventh-best hitter in Baltimore’s on a regular basis lineup, not the third-best. Heck, the O’s actually have a lefty masher, Austin Slater, to plug in towards Ragans.
Taking part in in Baltimore gives the O’s one other edge. Their finest hitters are largely both lefties or switch-hitters. The Royals’ finest guys are all right-handed, with the attainable exception of Pasquantino. Camden Yards is the third-worst park in baseball for righty energy, however the ninth-best for lefties. That left-field cutout produces some unusual wanting outs and “wait, how was that not a homer?” moments. The Royals are way more probably than the Orioles to fall prey to it.
Lastly, I suppose I ought to say a number of phrases concerning the two superstars who give this text its framing gadget. Witt has been completely unbelievable this yr. He’s hitting like Yordan Alvarez – and I imply that actually, they’ve produced the identical wRC+ this yr, with comparable underlying numbers too. He’s doing it whereas taking part in shortstop, and a reasonably good shortstop at that. I don’t fairly assume he’s the very best defender on the place (extra on this subsequent week), however he’s improved markedly and has a aptitude for the spectacular. He additionally occurs to be the quickest participant within the majors. If it weren’t for Decide going all Barry Bonds on everybody, he’d be a shoo-in for AL MVP.
Henderson’s offense is a reduce beneath Witt’s, nevertheless it’s nonetheless excellent. He completed the yr ninth in wRC+, sandwiched between MVP candidates Marcell Ozuna and Ketel Marte. He performed greater than these guys, at a tougher place, and whereas he’s not fairly Witt defensively, he’s a mean defensive shortstop who hits like an important DH. Oh yeah, and he’s in all probability simply nearly as good of a baserunner as Witt regardless of possessing much less uncooked pace. He makes nice selections, hardly ever will get caught, and swiped 20 baggage this yr.
On this yr’s Commerce Worth Collection, Henderson and Witt completed first and second. They’re the intense younger faces of baseball, connected to their present groups for a very long time and taking part in at an MVP-level already. They’ll hopefully be playoff fixtures for years to come back. However their squads received right here in very other ways: phenomenal beginning pitching in Kansas Metropolis, and countless waves of preppy younger hitters with names like Adley and Jackson for the O’s. My prediction: O’s in two, and a enjoyable rivalry for future playoff runs.
