Final week, I modeled Shohei Ohtani’s chase for 50 residence runs and 50 steals to foretell when he would possibly attain that historic twin milestone. That prediction isn’t static, although. Each time Ohtani performs a sport, the chance of his attending to 50/50 adjustments. Excellent news, although: Updating the mannequin is as simple as hitting a number of keys and listening to my laptop hum for a bit.
This isn’t going to be a protracted article. It’s, nonetheless, an up to date set of possibilities, which is the entire level of this train. Ohtani hit two homers in his weekend sequence in opposition to the Guardians, which leaves him solely 4 residence runs and 4 steals wanting a half century in every statistic. His odds of reaching 50/50 are as much as 61.3% in my simulations – they had been 55.6% earlier than this sequence.
As a fast refresher, I’m simulating the chance of his hitting 50 of every statistic with a Monte Carlo simulation that takes his expertise, his opponents, and the stadiums the place he performs under consideration. I additionally introduce a random fluctuation in his residence run expertise: Generally he’s sizzling, generally he’s not, and generally he’s in between. I then simulate the season one million occasions and notice whether or not he hits 50/50, and in that case, through which sport he does it.
The 2 homers within the weekend sequence have barely moved up the most definitely date for when he’ll attain the 50/50 threshold. Earlier than his sequence in opposition to Cleveland, my simulation prompt that the one sport most definitely to see Ohtani both steal the bottom or hit the homer that pushes him over the road was the Dodgers’ September 27 sport in Colorado. That’s nonetheless the case – however it’s now lifeless even with the earlier sport, September 26 in Los Angeles in opposition to the Padres. Moreover, the Padres sequence has overtaken the ultimate Rockies sequence because the three-game set through which he’s most definitely to set the mark.
Right here’s the whole set of game-by-game possibilities:
Shohei Ohtani, 50/50 Odds by Sport
| Day | Opponent | Dwelling/Away | Odds of fifty/50 | Cumulative Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/9 | Cubs | Dwelling | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9/10 | Cubs | Dwelling | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9/11 | Cubs | Dwelling | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9/13 | Braves | Away | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9/14 | Braves | Away | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 9/15 | Braves | Away | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 9/16 | Braves | Away | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| 9/17 | Marlins | Away | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| 9/18 | Marlins | Away | 2.0% | 4.4% |
| 9/19 | Marlins | Away | 2.9% | 7.3% |
| 9/20 | Rockies | Dwelling | 4.1% | 11.5% |
| 9/21 | Rockies | Dwelling | 5.1% | 16.5% |
| 9/22 | Rockies | Dwelling | 5.9% | 22.4% |
| 9/24 | Padres | Dwelling | 6.3% | 28.7% |
| 9/25 | Padres | Dwelling | 6.6% | 35.4% |
| 9/26 | Padres | Dwelling | 6.7% | 42.1% |
| 9/27 | Rockies | Away | 6.7% | 48.8% |
| 9/28 | Rockies | Away | 6.4% | 55.3% |
| 9/29 | Rockies | Away | 6.0% | 61.3% |
I feel these projections do a superb job of dealing with a difficult downside. However I do need to make one level about their limitations: Steals aren’t fairly as simple to mannequin as residence runs. Just about each time that Ohtani involves the plate, his preferrred consequence is a house run. He swings to hit residence runs, and pitchers do their finest to stop them. The previous does an excellent job of predicting the longer term right here, as a result of intent doesn’t change from one plate look to the subsequent. Steals don’t work fairly like that. Certain, Ohtani’s velocity is a constant and essential enter; the identical is true for his baserunning instincts, the opposing pitcher’s means to carry him on, the catcher’s throwing arm, and so forth. However how a lot he needs to steal can be crucially essential. He’s making an attempt to steal extra ceaselessly within the second half of the season than he was within the first, and his want to run presumably will solely speed up if he’s sitting on, say, 50 residence runs and 49 steals. I’m modeling a steady-state true-talent world, however I feel it might be cheap to tilt the distribution barely earlier if Ohtani hits the homer plateau earlier than the stolen base one, which seems to be extra seemingly at present than it did final week.
In any case, some takeaways: The final six video games of the season are the most definitely time to see historical past. The sequence in opposition to the Padres is now the very best guess regardless of San Diego’s wonderful pitching employees. The final sequence of the season, at elevation in opposition to a foul pitching employees, is the subsequent most definitely. The chance of Ohtani’s attending to 50 throughout each sequence is increased now than it was on Thursday, and I’d even be underestimating it on condition that he would possibly determine to try extra steals as he nears the border of historical past.
