A Giannis Antetokounmpo commerce is the one answer to this impending Bucks catastrophe

No cliché within the English language is as misunderstood as “all-time low.”

It’s a historic phrase, not meant for present-tense use — utilized retroactively to the bottom second of a timeline that has already reached its conclusion. However when struggling by way of the doldrums of being alive, we might naively imagine that, as a result of issues are so dangerous proper now, they’ll solely get higher. We might imagine we have now hit “all-time low,” and that our scenario should enhance as a result of there isn’t any decrease level possible. However we’re incorrect.

It will probably at all times worsen.

For instance: The Milwaukee Bucks could also be tempted to imagine that, as a result of their season has begun so poorly, they’re at “all-time low.” However, regardless of being simply 4-8, they aren’t. They’re nowhere close to the jagged gravel that’s ready for them on the finish of this impossibly deep gap they’re free-falling down. To combine my metaphors, this isn’t the earthquake — that is the foreshock, and the following catastrophe could also be so dire I’m going to counsel the Bucks do one thing I as soon as actually swore I’d by no means advocate for:

They should commerce their finest participant, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Earlier than delving additional into the horrifying specifics of the sinkhole Milwaukee is careening down, I have to acknowledge a number of potential conflicts of curiosity. I’m from Boston, and whereas it could appear advantageous for me to hope for the relocation of by far the Celtics’ strongest adversary, it truly makes me uniquely certified to remark. Hear me out.

I do know what it’s wish to have a metropolis legend — not simply “finest participant” — traded away. Mookie Betts was beloved in Boston. He was an icon, and dealing him to the Dodgers for what turned actually simply Connor Wong (no offense to Wong, however come on) was an all-time sports activities trauma second for me. I don’t advocate for groups to commerce native legends evenly.

And it doesn’t matter what I would like anyway, as a result of the Bucks don’t appear to assume issues are wherever close to dangerous sufficient to warrant buying and selling the perfect participant they’ve had since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, crown prince of being plugged into the league, mentioned as a lot on Wednesday’s episode of The Hoop Collective.

“Proper now, the Bucks have made it clear they’re not doing something with Giannis, and Giannis hasn’t mentioned something.” Windhorst mentioned. “So proper now, I believe it’s all hypothesis and conjecture.”

Maybe that’s as a result of the Bucks assume they’ve hit all-time low and may solely get higher. Persistence and time, they have to assume. However there’s a purpose Windhorst mentioned it was solely speculative “proper now.” He might have meant that the Bucks don’t intend to make an enormous overhaul in roster route midseason, however he additionally could be effectively conscious that when these wheels on one thing like this begin to transfer, they transfer quick. Quicker than the Bucks is likely to be prepared for.

A number of superior metrics present that the Bucks might not be this dangerous — they’re center of the pack in each offensive and defensive ranking, and thru 12 video games, they’ve the third-biggest discrepancy between anticipated profitable % (.434) and precise profitable % (.333).

Antetokounmpo himself is definitely having a stable statistical begin to the 12 months. And for Giannis, “stable” means world-destroying. He scored 59 factors to claw out a win towards the Pistons Wednesday evening — and is averaging 33 factors per recreation with 12 rebounds and 5 assists — however his group did every little thing they might to sabotage their very own probabilities towards Detroit.

Giannis can nonetheless win a recreation by himself, however this group simply doesn’t have the firepower to noticeably contend alongside him.

Even essentially the most optimistic stats level to, at finest, middling projections for this 12 months’s Bucks. Their projected profitable % sits at .418, which is a crisp 34 wins. That’s not sufficient. Not even within the largely woeful Japanese Convention. In actual fact, nothing about this season has been sufficient for his or her functions. This group doesn’t get sufficient stops. It doesn’t rating sufficient factors. It doesn’t win sufficient video games.

As presently constructed, the Bucks can not beat the Knicks. They can’t beat the Celtics. They can’t beat the Cavaliers. By means of 11 video games, they’ve misplaced to those three contenders a mixed 5 occasions. Not even an eventual playoff return of Khris Middleton — which, given his historical past, is not any assure — suggests they’d fare any higher in a postseason collection, and that’s with Damian Lillard and Antetokounmpo completely wholesome.

That’s the place issues are in Milwaukee. The group has roughly the identical statistical profile because the Chicago Bulls, a group teetering on the knife’s fringe of the Play-In or Lottery. However the Bulls have their picks and muted expectations. Wonderful flexibility within the face of abject mediocrity.

The Bucks, then again, management no first spherical picks till 2031. That’s nearly two presidential phrases away.

Picture by Mitchell Leff/Getty Photos

And with how a lot they’ve invested, this group can not afford to be this mediocre. The Ringer’s Zach Kram produced the aptly named “NBA All In-Dex” to indicate how pot-committed every group actually is to their present roster. The Bucks got here in sixth, however with the third most-decimated draft property to go together with an affordable monetary scenario rating. Lillard and Khris Middleton, who make up a big chunk of their future payroll, each have a participant choices within the subsequent two years and will each hit the open market sooner fairly than later. However cheap nonetheless could also be a doubtful distinction, with small-market Milwaukee shouldering the fourth-highest payroll within the league for a under .500 group.

The place Kram sees these expiring offers as higher monetary flexibility than the Celtics or Suns, I see it as additional proof of how screwed the Bucks truly are. Lillard and Middleton are their second and third most dear property, they usually may simply lose them each for nothing as quickly as 2027. They’ve (mainly) no picks, no useful younger gamers, and are basically piecing collectively a hodgepodge rotation round stars who’re presupposed to be good collectively however thus far simply… aren’t.

Sarcastically, that is the higher-stakes model of the Portland Path Blazers proper earlier than Lillard was traded. The group was not going to win something, and Lillard was by no means going to be extra useful. That commerce wanted to command such a return that it will outline the Path Blazers’ subsequent decade, or it was all for naught. But when Lillard was an explosive commerce asset, Antetokounmpo is thermonuclear.

We’re speaking about the most effective gamers in basketball and doubtlessly of all time right here. He doesn’t flip 30 till subsequent month, and nonetheless possesses a mix of pace, angular finesse and pure damaging drive that solely prime LeBron James may match. And he’s taller than LeBron. When Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving requested out of Brooklyn two years in the past, it was an enormous deal. That is a whole degree above that.

Antetokounmpo would command the most important bundle of property in NBA historical past, and maybe within the historical past of sports activities. We’ve got to keep in mind that Mikal Bridges was lately traded for what was basically six first spherical picks, and Durant required 5, plus Bridges (who, once more, is seemingly price six) and Cameron Johnson (price not less than one himself).

However Antetokounmpo would break all this math, and demand some new sort of metaphysical framework for a commerce.

The one groups with the ideas of a plan to amass him can be the Houston Rockets or the Brooklyn Nets. They’ve the younger gamers, expiring contracts, and asset profiles to not less than assemble some type of believable supply. Antetokounmpo would conceivably have some say as to the place he’d wish to go, however the Bucks would demand each elite (not simply good) younger gamers and extra draft picks than the world beforehand felt potential. The Nets might lack the previous, so I believe the Rockets would be the solely choice. Besides…

…okay, there may be one different choice… so horrifying that I truly refuse to acknowledge it: What if the Thunder cobbled collectively the wage together with their (almost) limitless provide of first-round picks to furnish the Bucks with eight firsts for Giannis?

This commerce might open up a black gap. It might shatter the material of actuality. It might trigger mass, unexplainable livestock dying throughout the American Nice Planes. Ought to Antetokounmpo truly be the results of the Thunder’s decade-sized asset stockpile, I must take every week off of labor to stroll in circles round my neighborhood, questioning how… and why?

Silver linings are every little thing. The Bucks gained a championship with Antetokounmpo by going all-in with Jrue Vacation. Nobody will ever take that away from them. However they’ve tried and didn’t restructure the decaying roster by going all-in once more with Damian Lillard, and now have one traditionally useful asset left to keep away from falling into obscurity for the following decade.

Some may say they need to simply commerce Lillard and hold Antetokounmpo, however the former’s worth has solely depreciated since they obtained him final September, and isn’t sufficient to recoup the losses they’ve incurred over time on his personal. You don’t get a mulligan on going all-in. Except you go all out.

In addition they might not have a alternative sooner fairly than later. Antetokounmpo could also be publicly amiable proper now, however any superduperstar on a nasty group is a ticking time bomb to ask out. Durant proved you might drive a commerce with any contract, and the Bucks might learn the way tough off that may depart you in the event that they don’t get forward of it.

This sucks. I perceive that this sucks. However they could not have a alternative ultimately, and I’m reminded of nameless recommendation given to the pinnacle of the French Listing, Paul Barras, about what to do with this proficient however probably-too-ambitious Corsican basic named Napoleon Bonaparte: “Promote this man, or he’ll promote himself with out you.”

In the long run, the wheels of historical past turned such that Bonaparte promoted himself with out his presumed superiors, and Antetokounmpo could do the identical to the Bucks in the event that they don’t see the writing on the wall themselves. This isn’t simply going to get higher, and should very effectively worsen. Antetokounmpo may get injured, ask out himself, or just refuse to play a la 2019 Anthony Davis. And it’s not like Antetokounmpo “would by no means” do that. He has already flirted with leaving twice to drive the Bucks to maneuver all their chips for Vacation and Lillard. Who’s to say he gained’t do it for actual?

On the finish of the day, the Bucks are being provided a binary alternative: commerce Antetokounmpo now for the most important bundle of property within the observable universe, or lose him someplace down the highway for much less if he forces their hand they usually run out of leverage. Worst involves worst, he could stroll for nothing.

The Bucks have an opportunity to get forward of all that. They should study from the Brooklyn Nets’ five-year embarrassment. Brooklyn went all-in twice, bailed too late and have been left with a gutted roster, pressured to commerce for their very own picks again so as to correctly tank. The 2021 Championship makes this all much less embarrassing for Milwaukee, however doesn’t change the logical actuality that it’s time to jumpstart the rebuild that’s coming for them, whether or not they prefer it or not.

The Bucks assume they’ve seen all-time low, however they ain’t seen nothing but. It’s time to take the final exit off the freeway to hell.