5 picks our skilled loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, that includes picks from GOLF.com’s skilled prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a daily visitor on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio community dedicated to sports activities and sport betting. You may comply with on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you’ll learn his picks beneath for the boys’s Olympic Golf competitors, which will get underway Thursday exterior of Paris, France. Together with Kannon’s advisable performs, you’ll additionally see information from Chirp Golf, a cellular app that options each Free-To-Play and Every day Fantasy golf contests the place you’ll be able to win money and prizes with every spherical and event.

The FedExCup Playoffs are solely two weeks away, however the 2024 golf season has yet one more major-type occasion up its sleeve to maintain us lots engaged, and that’s the chase for Olympic gold this week in Paris, France.

Golf within the Olympics first existed over 100 years in the past nevertheless it was solely 2016 in Rio de Janeiro once we noticed it first reinserted again into the lineup. England’s Justin Rose took gold that 12 months. Henrik Stenson gained the silver medal and Matt Kuchar acquired the bronze.

On the 2020 Video games in Tokyo (really performed in 2021), Xander Schauffele gained the gold medal and Rory Sabbatini took the silver. A part of a seven-player playoff, C.T. Pan gained bronze.

Right here we’re in 2024 at Le Golf Nationwide, a wonderful course lower than 20-miles exterior of Paris that has been the host course of the DP World Tour occasion, the Open de France, since 1991. The golf course additionally hosted the Ryder Cup in 2018. Particularly, it’s the Albatros Course at Le Golf Nationwide. It’s a shorter course at lower than 7,200 yards and performs to a par 71 with three par-5s and 11 par-4s. The fairways are slim and undulated, the tough is thick and the bentgrass greens are bigger than common and in addition function quite a lot of undulation.

With the quantity of water hazards, sand bunkers, undulation and with the European setting, the course appears to be like fairly a bit like a mixture between a Florida monitor and a Euro hyperlinks design. I did use one Florida course and one European hyperlinks design in my comp programs this week, that being Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and Royal Troon (2024 Open Championship). This course doesn’t have the size of Bay Hill however the emphasis on Driving Accuracy and Bogey Avoidance together with the thick tough and huge greens all matches up. With Royal Troon, we are able to additionally be aware the similarities for Driving Accuracy and the undulated fairways. Bogey Avoidance stays true as does the necessity for profitable Scrambling.

Along with Driving Accuracy, Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance, I additionally checked out Strokes Gained: Placing (Bentgrass), Strokes Gained: Method, Strokes Gained: Whole (Shorter Programs), Gap Proximity from 100-175 yards, and par-4s measuring 350-450 yards. Along with Bay Hill and Royal Troon, I additionally thought of TPC Deere Run (John Deere Basic), East Lake Golf Membership (Tour Championship) and TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open) as comparable programs.

Earlier than we dive into this week’s alternatives, I ought to level out that there isn’t any 36-hole reduce at this occasion. The sector is made up of 60 gamers enjoying all 4 rounds. First place, second and third will win gold, silver and bronze, respectively. If any of the medal locations are tied after 72 holes, there shall be a playoff.

I’ve performed the next 5 gamers for an outright win — or gold medal — however there’s a marketplace for a podium end, which means betting on a participant to medal. There are additionally the normal ending place markets; top-5, top-10, top-20, and many others.

Collin Morikawa (11-1)

I really feel like this golf event is a little bit bit totally different from a typical Tour occasion, a Signature Occasion, or a significant championship. It’s totally different when representing your nation. It’s totally different enjoying for a gold medal versus a inexperienced jacket. Having gained six tournaments this season, together with the Masters, will Scottie Scheffler be hell-bent on profitable gold? Already having gained gold and having gained two majors this season, will Xander Schauffele be chomping on the bit for extra? Actually they each very effectively could possibly be however I really feel like there is perhaps hungrier gamers on the market on this discipline, hungrier particularly for Olympic glory, and certainly one of which is Morikawam, who additionally occurs to be an excellent match for this golf course. Morikawa has flirted with victory seven occasions this season however is but to money in. He’s been on the heels of each Scheffler and Schauffele a number of occasions. He has not completed worse than sixteenth in his final eight begins. He has completed 3-4-14-16 within the 4 main championships this season. This looks like his final shot at slaying the grand prize on a world stage and he has voiced his want and willpower to get again to profitable “main” golf tournaments. Having come so shut so many occasions this 12 months, Morikawa will get yet one more likelihood to make a mammoth splash and I consider he’s shopping for in. We spoke about slim fairways and the statistical wants at this golf course. Morikawa ranks prime 5 on this discipline over the past 24 rounds for Driving Accuracy, SG: Method, Bogey Avoidance, Good Drives Gained and on the par-4s measuring 350-450 yards. He’s additionally thirteenth in Scrambling, ninth in SG: Placing (Bentgrass) and second for SG: Whole on programs measuring lower than 7,200 yards. For me, he checks out statistically, mentally and comes right here in good kind. Now we wait to see if manifests.

Jon Rahm (12-1)

I’m nonetheless seeing some 11s on Rahm however I’ve additionally seen odds decrease than 9-1 pop up in response to the Spaniard’s win final Sunday at LIV UK. Something 10-1 or higher is a pleasant quantity for my part. I performed Rahm in-game a few totally different occasions final week on the LIV occasion in England after which once more instantly after the win, to win once more right here in Paris. It has been a grind for Rahm this season. The transition to the LIV surroundings has not been simple. He’s completed prime 10 in each occasion with no win till final Sunday. His efficiency within the majors had been very disappointing till lastly placing collectively a powerful exhibiting at Royal Troon. I favored what I noticed out of him on the Open Championship, ending seventh, after which he was delivered to tears by the win final week. I consider he has turned a nook and like Morikawa, Rahm now has yet one more likelihood to beat “the remainder of the world” on an enormous stage, proving that he’s nonetheless very a lot “Jon Rahm” and regardless of enjoying on a special circuit, he hasn’t gone anyplace. Rahm completed tenth right here on the Open de France in 2017, fifth in 2018 and beat Tiger Woods in singles on the 2018 Ryder Cup. I like the truth that he has expertise and success at this golf course, I like his present kind and his state of mind. He additionally has an unbelievable historical past at TPC Scottsdale.

Shane Lowry (27-1)

An identical theme right here with Lowry. A man that has come up simply brief this season and in current weeks. A full-of-pride countryman who would completely like to win a gold medal for Eire. He did it at Royal Portrush in 2019, profitable the Open Championship on his house soil. He was the flag bearer for Eire on the opening ceremonies final week and spoke brazenly about how a lot it meant to him. This man can style it and I anticipate his golf recreation to comply with go well with. Lowry has to really feel like he left one thing on the desk two weeks in the past at The Open after being the 36-hole chief and in the end ending sixth after the climate helped sprint his hopes within the third spherical. He has expertise at this golf course, ending sixteenth right here in 2018. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks prime 10 on this discipline for Bogey Avoidance, Good Drives Gained, par-4s from 350-400 and Gap Proximity from 125-150. Not solely is Lowry one of many world’s finest hyperlinks gamers, however the Florida swing has usually been the place he’s at his finest as effectively. He completed third at Bay Hill earlier this season. Along with the outright win, possibly that is one price a attempt for a podium end or a top-10 end play too.

Corey Conners (37-1)

I consider that is one other instance of nation satisfaction presumably being in play. Canada shall be on the world stage this fall for the President’s Cup and Conners will nearly actually be part of that crew – however a gold medal wouldn’t harm his probabilities both. For a man that has had quite a lot of top-10 finishes in main championships, profitable gold could be unbelievable. As I alluded to earlier, I really feel this medal carries one thing totally different when it comes to an accomplishment, and possibly it resonates much more with the worldwide gamers than it does with the People. Like Lowry, this is perhaps one other one so as to add a end place play to the outright win wager. Conners’ European hyperlinks recreation has been bettering fairly a bit in a brief time frame. He hasn’t missed a reduce on the Open Championship in 4 straight years and simply completed twenty fifth at Royal Troon. He hasn’t missed a reduce on the Scottish Open in three straight tries and completed nineteenth and tenth within the final two editions. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks prime six on this discipline for SG: Method, Driving Accuracy, par-4s from 400-450 yards and Gap Proximity from 125-150.

Thomas Detry (70-1)

No one on this Olympic discipline has extra expertise on this golf course than Detry, who’s representing Belgium. As a former full-time member on the DP World Tour, Detry has performed 18 event rounds of golf right here on the Open de France. He’s made the reduce in 4 out of 5 tries and has finishes of 25-16-8-35. He’s particularly good on the par-4s and in Gap Proximity from 125-175 yards. He ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in SG: Placing. I like the present kind as effectively. Starting with the PGA Championship, the place he completed fourth, he hasn’t missed a reduce in his final six begins, together with a 14th-place end on the U.S. Open. In his final begin on the Scottish Open, he shot 4 rounds within the 60s and completed twenty sixth. He’s completely a high quality participant that has sniffed the winner’s circle at massive occasions. I really feel like 70-1 is a good value and I’ve seen just a few ticks larger. That is one the place I too may add a top-20 end play.

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