3 causes to imagine Justin Thomas can get his first win in 2.5 years

Justin Thomas is on the brink on the Zozo Championship.

However that’s not the query.

The query is: On the brink of what?

Is it … on the point of his first win in 2.5 years, breaking by after a protracted stretch of {golfing} distress following a PGA Championship victory in 2022 that appeared prefer it would possibly vault his profession into {the golfing} stratosphere?

Or is it … on the point of one other robust loss on the Zozo in what could be his last severe begin of ’24, prolonging his winless streak into a 3rd straight season?

We are going to study the solutions to those questions at nighttime on Saturday on the East Coast of the U.S., when play on the Zozo will conclude in Japan. However for now, all we all know is that the two-time major-winning Thomas is in solo second place and two pictures off the 54-hole lead heading into Sunday.

So, with the spirit of optimism in thoughts, we’re counting down three the explanation why we predict he can do it — and one cause why he may not.

3 the explanation why Justin Thomas would possibly win Zozo Championship

1. His strokes gained information is unusually good

By 54 holes in Japan, Thomas has gained greater than 10 pictures on the sector in strokes gained: tee-to-green (10.1) — that’s one of the best within the discipline by a large margin, and a substantial improve over Thomas’ personal stats in that class all through the ’24 season (he ranked 82nd in SG: off-the-tee, and twelfth in SG: method).

When Thomas was on the prime of his powers again in ’20 and ’21 — the identical seasons he briefly reached the World No. 1 rating and picked up sufficient trophies to construct a brand new house — he ranked on the very prime of the PGA Tour within the tee-to-green class. Now he’s again in that kind, and at a golf course that appears primed for his type of ball-striking.

2. His recreation has been trending

No, it hasn’t been a string of wins like we’ve seen within the final a number of years from Thomas, however his final three months of play main into the Zozo have confirmed a few of his most impressed golf in current reminiscence, together with Prime 10s at each the Vacationers and Tour Championship.

Add to all of it that Thomas suffered a demoralizing rejection from the U.S. Presidents Cup group to start with of September, and also you’ve obtained a recipe for a golfer who’s assembly on the axes of motivation and up to date kind.

All that’s left is to place all of it collectively when it counts on a Sunday.

3. He’s mounted certainly one of his worst stats

Thomas truly had a reasonably common statistical season on the PGA Tour in ’24, however one stat noticed an unusually precipitous falloff from his early-career success: bogey avoidance. In ’24, Thomas ranks 78th on the PGA Tour in that stat, after routinely rating within the prime 20 earlier in his profession.

On the Zozo, although, he ranks first in your entire discipline by 54 holes, with only one bogey to point out for his efforts.

In fact, this may not replicate a causational change in his method to bogey avoidance, however golfers go on heaters — and heaters usually end in victories!

1 cause Justin Thomas may not win on Sunday

Within the curiosity of steadiness, it’s truthful to notice that whereas Thomas might want to vanquish a well-recognized enemy if he’s going to win on Sunday on the Zozo: that of the late-week collapse.

JT’s recreation has been adequate over one, two and three rounds to seek out himself close to or within the lead at near a half-dozen occasions in 2024. He has no wins to point out for it primarily as a result of he’s struggled to preserve his efficiency after these excessive peaks. A loss on Sunday for Thomas would doubtless look quite a bit just like the summer time’s different near-misses, wherein blow-up holes and topsy-turvy golf rule over the low-heartrate performances of earlier this week.

In different phrases, pay very shut consideration, as a result of issues might rapidly get fascinating.