It’s the sport of the weekend, if not the complete season. Ravens vs. Payments is the heavyweight matchup of the AFC, with the winner probably cementing themselves as Tremendous Bowl favorites. Two of the league’s greatest offenses, led by two quarterbacks with equal declare for the MVP award — it doesn’t get a lot better than this.
There are causes you might choose Buffalo right here. The climate, an out of doors stadium, and Josh Allen’s means to create one thing out of nothing are the largest promoting factors for the Payments — however finally the Ravens have three huge causes they need to be capable of win and transfer on.
No. 1: Defensive disparity
The largest distinction between the Ravens and Payments this season is on the defensive aspect of the ball. Baltimore ranks sixth within the league in defensive DVOA, whereas the Payments rank eleventh. Which may look like a small distinction, however the margins between these groups are razor skinny — and that issues.
Stacking them up head-to-head in non-advanced metrics exhibits why the Ravens are so sturdy too.
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Passing TDs allowed
Ravens: nineteenth
Payments: twenty fourth -
Passing YPA allowed
Ravens: thirteenth
Payments: seventeenth -
Dashing TDs allowed
Ravens: seventh
Payments: tenth -
Dashing YPA allowed
Ravens: 1st
Payments: nineteenth
These are all comparatively small margins, however once more: Razor skinny margins. When each considerable protection edge goes to Baltimore, and offensive these groups are so shut, it finally ends up changing into a extra vital issue.
No. 2: Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson’s legs
The 2024 season was all in regards to the return of the working again, and it’s no shock that seven of the Prime 10 rushers this 12 months all made the playoffs. No one must go over Derrick Henry’s resume, however the dimension he’s added to the offense is profound.
Stopping the run has been an issue for Buffalo this season. The staff ranked twelfth in yards allowed, and nineteenth in yards per try. That is made much more problematic when you think about what Lamar Jackson can do on designed runs.
Previously the reply to stopping Baltimore on offense was comparatively easy: Comprise Lamar, and every thing else takes care of itself. When he was compelled to be the quarterback and main rusher the stress was on Jackson to play hero ball each recreation. Now the staff can merely pivot and make Henry a focus when wanted, and that’s paid off in a giant approach.
The Payments do have the sting in opposition to the move, but it surely’s the run recreation that may probably outline this matchup.
No. 3: Cross rush
In a recreation like this it actually might come right down to who can sluggish the opposing famous person QB extra typically, and there’s a transparent edge right here to Baltimore. The Large 3 of the Ravens move rush are Kyle Van Noy (12.5 sacks), Odafe Oweh (10 sacks), and Nnamdi Madubuike (6.5 sacks), who’ve mixed for over 90 pressures this season.
On the opposite aspect of the ball the highest three Payments move rushers have a mixed 20 sacks and 69 pressures. That’s a big distinction, notably with Madubuike from the DT place who amassed 40 pressures for the Ravens this season.
Collapsing the pocket from the center and disrupting performs earlier than they begin is essential. It additionally helps forestall Allen from gashing the Ravens up the center along with his legs. It’s not about utterly shutting down a QB like Josh Allen, as a result of he’s adequate to make you pay — it’s merely about slowing him down extra that they will sluggish your man. That’s why the Ravens have the sting right here.
In the end this recreation is the largest coin toss of the weekend. It actually might go both approach, however there are some stable causes to consider Baltimore is within the driver’s seat earlier than we hit Sunday.
