2025 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The crew order is chosen by lot, and the following crew up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

For the third time within the final 4 years, the Mariners hung across the playoff race for a lot of the 2024 marketing campaign, earlier than falling simply quick by the season’s denouement. Relating to profitable 85 to 90 video games a yr like clockwork, Jerry Dipoto’s ship is hermetic and his sailors at all times on the ball. However to this point, St. Louis Cardinals: Pacific Northwest hasn’t been fairly as efficient as the unique collection — the Mariners aren’t going to have as simple a time stealing division titles because the Cardinals did, enjoying as they do in a tougher division. Whereas the Mariners aggressively add gamers and make trades, there’s a primary conservatism right here that limits the crew’s final upside; regardless of seven profitable seasons within the final 11 years, Seattle has maxed out at simply 90 wins. This isn’t a brand new factor both — the franchise solely has one 95-win-or-better season in its historical past (the 116-win 2001 season, in fact).

The lineup isn’t the strongest a part of this crew, however it’s at the very least strong and steady. The highlights are the J. Rodleigh Consortium (Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh), two official stars, although ones who’ve already doubtless discovered their respective peaks. Rodríguez struggled early this season, however there’s no basic cause to fret about him. And Raleigh has grown right into a official star, although I’d prefer to see him get somewhat extra DH time given how necessary his well being is to the crew; he led all catchers in innings over the past two years, and it’s not like there’s an awesome DH state of affairs to upset right here.

When you get previous Rodríguez and Raleigh, the offense is okay, however quite underwhelming. Being respectable all over the place raises your crew ground fairly a bit, however it additionally turns into very exhausting to meaningfully improve. ZiPS does see Victor Robles remaining a really strong starter in 2025, which is nice information, and whereas second base feels a bit messy, the projections see mainly all the choices as satisfactory; this isn’t a White Sox state of affairs from just a few years in the past, the place they collected a bunch of 0.5-WAR second baseman with the obvious want to Voltron them into an All-Star. ZiPS is very bought on Cole Younger’s future.

ZiPS charges Ben Williamson as among the finest minor league third basemen it’s seen within the decade it’s been ready to make use of hit location/trajectory for minor league protection; if his bat develops and the pc isn’t hallucinating about his glove, he might develop into a severe keeper. Nonetheless, the bat isn’t there but, with a .236/.309/.329 projected line, so he isn’t going to pressure the Mariners to offer Josh Rojas the boot or forestall them from bringing in one other third baseman, at the very least for 2025.

Once more, this isn’t a foul offense, however I’d prefer to see some precise danger someplace. The offseason is simply getting began, so there’s loads of time to herald somewhat extra hazard and rather less meh.

Pitchers

The rotation is what butters the Mariners’ bread or, to stay with the nautical theme, lards their pemmican. In a really early estimate — which shouldn’t be taken too severely but, because it’s solely mid-November — ZiPS has the Mariners with the second-best rotation in baseball behind the Phillies. Within the very preliminary run of projected 2025 WAR, ZiPS places all 5 of Seattle’s doubtless starters within the high 60 within the majors. And there’s no extreme extrapolation required both; all 5 have proven they’ll pitch convincingly properly within the majors. The issue comes with the “what if.” ZiPS initiatives a giant drop-off in ERA+ from Bryce Miller to the doubtless sixth starter, Emerson Hancock — a full 22 factors (107 to 85), actually. Of all of the issues folks say in March that they later remorse, “If the pitching simply stays wholesome, we’ll win the division!” needs to be close to the highest. Endure a pair severe accidents, and Seattle’s rotation — and the crew — could disintegrate pretty rapidly.

There’s type of the same bizarre gulf if you take a look at the Mariners bullpen. ZiPS offers very optimistic projections for Andrés Muñoz and Gregory Santos (and Matt Brash, however he’s recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure). However after Santos, there’s one other Splash Mountain. ZiPS is a good deal much less impressed by Yimi García or Trent Thornton, and it’s no sunnier about Collin Snider than Steamer is. It quantities to a solidly common bullpen — ZiPS likes this group higher than Steamer does — however it’s a top-heavy one.

Crunch all the things collectively and also you get 89 to 93 wins primarily based on our depth chart enjoying time. However ZiPS isn’t often as optimistic about well being as our depth charts are, in order that’ll come right down to 85 to 90 wins, or… someplace round .540. There’s nothing unsuitable with being a .540 crew over the lengthy haul, however that doesn’t imply it’s a must to settle for it.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever attainable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 attributable to damage, and gamers who had been launched in 2024. So sure, for those who see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to type a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected crew WAR.

As at all times, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You’ll be able to, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.