2025 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The staff order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent staff up is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

They’re the Dodgers, in order traditional, they’ve huge stars, good depth, and a truckload of versatility at most positions. Is that ’nuff mentioned?

A 7-WAR projection for a DH is, in fact, bananas, and ZiPS truly has a 40/40 season because the common Shohei Ohtani projection, not an aspirational purpose. Naturally, he’s received an ideal shot at going 50/50 once more, although I’ve to marvel if, now that he’s reached that milestone and shall be again to pitching, the Dodgers will insist on him being extra conservative along with his baserunning.

Actually, there simply aren’t many surprises right here. ZiPS sees the left subject state of affairs as merely OK because it stands proper now, with each different place higher than that. Loads of this can be outdated in just a few weeks (information of Michael Conforto’s signing broke as I used to be scripting this, as an illustration), however the Dodgers might theoretically roll with the lineup they’ve and be simply high quality. How precisely Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Chris Taylor find yourself being deployed remains to be a bit TBD, although it does seem that Plan A will end in Betts getting plenty of time at shortstop once more.

ZiPS expects one thing of a bounce-back season from James Outman, although it’s laborious to say simply how a lot rope a staff just like the Dodgers will give him. Apart from noting how good the Dodgers are all over the place, the lineup is boring in the perfect form of method. It’s a bunch of terrific gamers nonetheless largely within the prime of their careers, most of whom shall be good-to-great in 2025.

If there’s a weak point — and I could also be stretching the definition of the phrase — it’s that ZiPS sees fewer hitters than traditional within the excessive minors who’re straining to hit the majors, not less than fewer in comparison with the Dodgers’ requirements. ZiPS likes Dalton Dashing simply high quality, although extra as a catcher, which isn’t a positional downside for the staff, and it already sees Alex Freeland as a respectable main league starter. However a lot of the actually attention-grabbing prospects are both pitchers or developmental hitters within the very low minors who’re form of out of the ZiPS wheelhouse.

Pitchers

Los Angeles’ rotation of tremendously gifted arms with damage danger nearly fell aside this 12 months, because the Dodgers struggled late within the season to really get 5 of their 12 or 13 attention-grabbing starters in uniform concurrently. However there aren’t any fashion factors in championships and nearly falling aside was all they wanted, because the staff rolled the Yankees within the World Collection.

As I famous in his transaction writeup, Blake Snell does quite a bit to stabilize the rotation, and if the Dodgers can get 700 innings out of a mix of him, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, and Tony Gonsolin, I’m unsure any NL West staff can significantly threaten for the division. That mentioned, there nonetheless are plenty of unknowns right here. The precise timetable for Ohtani’s return to pitching is arising “ask me later” on the Magic 8-Ball, with the rehab from the damage he suffered in Sport 2 of the World Collection doubtlessly complicating issues. On the very least, he’s unlikely to be prepared for the staff’s opening collection in Japan. Plus, it might be surprising if the Dodgers weren’t within the combine for Roki Sasaki or different starters, and whereas he’s not beneath contract proper now, so far as I’m conscious, Clayton Kershaw will principally be a Dodger at any time when he’s prepared (he’s at the moment recovering from toe and knee surgical procedure).

The bullpen initiatives as top-of-the-line in baseball. Projecting Michael Kopech as solely a reliever drops his projected ERA to three.39, making him certainly one of eight relievers on the depth chart (together with the just lately re-signed Blake Treinen) projected for an ERA beneath 3.50 in such a job. ZiPS remains to be a bit skeptical of Anthony Banda (although it nonetheless has him with an ERA beneath 4.00 as a reliever) and it’s not sure simply how a lot Giovanny Gallegos has left. Fortunately, the Dodgers have top-of-the-line monitor data round of compacting stable bullpen outings of just about anybody; I feel a block of cheddar cheese is likely to be above alternative stage out of the Dodgers ‘pen.

The Dodgers are the early favourite to enter 2025 because the staff ZiPS initiatives to win essentially the most video games. Surprising, proper?

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate staff projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 on account of damage, and gamers who have been launched in 2024. So sure, in case you see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to kind a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected staff WAR. It is very important keep in mind that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how rapidly a staff will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You’ll be able to, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.