2025 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The workforce order is chosen by lot, and the following workforce up is the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

To get this out of the way in which, ZiPS completely adores Chicago’s lineup, from high to backside and each which approach round. ZiPS and the Cubs have been on the identical web page earlier than — the projections for Shota Imanaga final winter had me proclaiming that his deal was the offseason’s greatest signing — however the projections haven’t been this excessive on the lineup because the workforce’s World Sequence competition days. Now, a number of that’s protection, with Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong every having elite defensive projections. However there’s a number of bat in there as effectively, with six starters projected for a 100 OPS+ or higher, and two of the three who aren’t — Swanson and PCA — bolstered by their aforementioned protection.

Certainly, the system’s love for the Cubs was so intense that, as with the 2023 Diamondbacks (a workforce ZiPS completely drooled over), I made certain to double-check that one thing humorous wasn’t occurring by projecting the workforce utilizing an older model of ZiPS. Very similar to Arizona two years in the past, there was mainly no change (0.2 WAR). The happy-Cubs impact has gotten stronger because the begin of the winter, with the group jettisoning plenty of gamers ZiPS wasn’t excessive on (Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes), whereas including a participant who ZiPS has all the time preferred (Kyle Tucker) and discovering extra taking part in time for Matt Shaw, who initiatives to be a good starter proper now. ZiPS even likes Gage Workman, who was picked up within the Rule 5 draft. It’s a smaller transfer, however whereas the pc isn’t optimistic about his bat, it had him as among the best defensive third basemen within the minors.

Now, the taking part in time will come down as soon as I do the Formally Licensed ZiPS Projected Standings, however the laptop thinks this can be a terrific group. It even likes the blokes arising. Because it did with Michael Busch final yr, it sees Shaw as a reputable Rookie of the Yr candidate, and thinks that Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros might be actual contributors within the majors proper now. And it already sees Kevin Alcántara as having a profession projection of 25 WAR! I’m nearly bored that there’s nothing to be imply about, not less than because it pertains to the offense.

Pitchers

On the flip facet, ZiPS is way much less excited concerning the pitching workers, particularly the rotation. For the reason that laptop was already keen about Imanaga, it sees him about the identical because it did final winter, and it likes Justin Steele simply effective. However when you get previous the highest two and Matthew Boyd, who ZiPS actually digs regardless of the accidents given his sturdy stretch run, it’s a reasonably “meh” set of projections, stuffed with serviceable-at-best pitchers with ERAs fancied up by the workforce’s protection. ZiPS believes that Javier Assad can proceed to beat his FIP by greater than the protection contributes, however with a 4.48 FIP projection, you’re not going to see a projected ERA within the 3.00s, even with the adjustment.

With a luxurious tax quantity underneath $200 million and no onerous long-term offers, the Cubs are a workforce that should be actually concerned within the offseason pitching market. There are nonetheless dudes on the board!

The projections for the bullpen are extra optimistic than they’re for the rotation, although they fall in need of being elite. There’s an amusing consistency among the many relievers, with ZiPS mainly projecting everybody for ERAs between 3.40 and three.90, with one notable exception. That exception is Nate Pearson, who nonetheless has quite a lot of upside, however who stays reasonably dangerous; ZiPS would like that he and his 4.10 projected ERA be relegated to lower-leverage conditions till he exhibits one thing.

Elsewhere, the projections for Cody Poteet are intriguing. The Cubs didn’t eat sufficient of Bellinger’s contract to get an actual prospect, however the 30-year-old right-hander might be a priceless bullpen piece who also can throw the occasional emergency begin. Ben Brown’s projection as a starter is already wholesome, however as a reliever, ZiPS sees him as the perfect nearer choice on the workforce, with a projected ERA proper round 3.00 there.

With ZiPS’ extra conservative taking part in time, the Cubs are a slight favourite in NL Central as they’re presently constituted, forecast for 86-87 wins. But when they have been so as to add a Roki Sasaki or a Corbin Burnes, they could very effectively undertaking because the clear division standout.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names may be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time. The ultimate workforce projections might differ significantly from our Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever attainable. This consists of gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 because of harm, and gamers who have been launched in 2024. So sure, should you see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to type a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected workforce WAR. You will need to do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a workforce will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our good friend and former editor. You possibly can, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.