2024 World Sequence Preview: That is What You Got here For

Rihanna stated it finest. Or perhaps it was Russell Crowe. That is the primary occasion. The highest seed within the American League meets the highest seed within the Nationwide League. The presumptive AL MVP is main his crew in opposition to the presumptive NL winner. These guys, coincidentally, are the 2 greatest free brokers in historical past – Shohei Ohtani broke the financial institution this previous offseason, solely a yr after Aaron Choose signed a historic deal of his personal. Juan Soto may eclipse them each this winter. And whereas these three are the most important stars within the recreation proper now, they’ve three earlier MVP winners – Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Giancarlo Stanton – as sidekicks. Oh yeah, and the 2 highest-paid pitchers in historical past are the aces of their respective groups. Heck, I’ve allowed this paragraph to run to a ridiculous size, and I’m solely now mentioning 2024 House Run Derby winner Teoscar Hernández.

By any goal measure, this World Sequence matchup is totally loaded with star energy. However the present gamers are solely half the story. That is the twelfth Yankees-Dodgers matchup in World Sequence historical past – the Dodgers have performed in 22 of this stuff, they usually’ve confronted one crew greater than half the time. This isn’t fairly Doris Kearns Goodwin’s Fall Traditional anymore, the place the 2 preeminent groups are a subway trip aside, however the subsequent smartest thing is a rivalry between the 2 greatest cities within the nation.

Need an instance of how good the gamers on this sequence are? Listed here are the highest 5 hitters in baseball by wRC+ this yr:

Jay Jaffe dove into how uncommon it’s to see the perfect participant in every league within the World Sequence – seems, it’s fairly uncommon! Fifty-homer sluggers have additionally by no means confronted one another within the Sequence prior to now, and that leaves out the truth that Ohtani stole 50 baggage too. Soto is an absurdly over-qualified second banana. Betts isn’t on this record, and he was within the MVP operating earlier than lacking time with damage. The star energy on show is just staggering, as Davy Andrews famous Wednesday.

You in all probability already know all that. These are simply the FanGraphs previews, and also you’re not precisely coming in right here having not learn different baseball evaluation. So whereas I may rehash the identical headlines with my typical mixture of literary and musical nods shoehorned in, I believed I’d strive one thing slightly bit completely different on this preview. Ohtani is wonderful. Choose is a modern-day titan. Soto is your favourite hitter’s favourite hitter. Betts is my favourite participant to observe. These are all givens. However there are a bunch of different guys enjoying too, and the way they fare in opposition to one another and in opposition to the celebrities will go a great distance in direction of figuring out which of those iconic franchises takes dwelling the trophy subsequent week.

The Dodgers’ Secret Bullpen Plan
The Dodgers rotation feels prefer it’s stapled collectively, or at finest held in place by strategically utilized duct tape. The crew is just carrying three starters, and Jack Flaherty is the one one among them to pitch into the sixth inning up to now this October. The Dodgers have performed 11 video games, and three of these have been full-on bullpen video games. Their bullpen has coated 18.1 extra innings than their New York counterparts.

At first blush, that looks like a recipe for catastrophe in opposition to the Yankees, who simply picked aside the perfect bullpen in baseball within the ALCS. However the Dodgers have up to now used a secret recipe to stop their ‘pen from getting over-exposed. In case you’re up by six runs, you need to use just about any reliever you need, and Los Angeles’ offense has accomplished an incredible job of placing up crooked numbers and taking all of the drama out of video games within the early innings.

Need that expressed mathematically? Within the combination, Dodgers relievers have handled a 0.65 leverage index of their 57 innings of labor this postseason. Leverage index averages 1.0 by definition, and 0.65 is extraordinarily low. That’s pure mop-up territory. Ryan Yarbrough and Nabil Crismatt, neither of whom are nonetheless on the crew, had been Dodgers relievers with that common leverage index in the course of the common season. These guys are filler; they pitch when the end result of the sport isn’t unsure. For a Yankees equal, assume Ron Marinaccio or Dennis Santana. The purpose is, whereas Dodgers relievers are doing so much, they’re doing it in forgiving situations. They’ve been on the receiving finish of some blowouts, they usually’ve additionally scored 6.4 runs per recreation, so there hasn’t been a ton of drama both means.

These blowouts perform like a launch valve for the aid corps. Regardless of essentially the most crew bullpen innings, just one Dodgers reliever, Blake Treinen, options within the prime 10 for postseason aid innings pitched. The Dodgers reliever to cowl the second-most innings is lengthy man Brent Honeywell, and he’s accomplished it in two appearances, absorbing three to 4 innings at a time. Each groups ease off the gasoline in blowouts, and fairly so: There’s no level in spending good pitchers in a recreation with a six-run rating differential.

That lets the Dodgers hold their prime arms contemporary at the same time as their starters scuffle, and “scuffle” could be too well mannered of a time period for what the rotation has accomplished up to now this postseason. The one “starter” with an ERA under 5 is opener Ryan Brasier. The three precise starters have an combination ERA of 6.14, they usually’re solely masking 4 and a half innings per recreation. One other mind-set about it’s that they’ve solely accounted for 38% of the batters the Dodgers have confronted this October. Yankees starters are at 54%, and the Dodgers had been additionally in that ballpark (54.5%) within the common season. With such meager contributions from the workhorses, each single reliever has needed to work to choose up the slack.

All of these innings can take a toll past easy fatigue. I’ve centered on repeat matchups between relievers and hitters this postseason, as a result of these really feel like a key level of failure. You don’t wish to give Choose and Soto a ton of appears to be like on the identical pitcher, regardless of how good that man is. To date, the Dodgers have accomplished a spectacular job of avoiding repeat matchups. Their prime three relievers are Treinen, Michael Kopech, and Evan Phillips. In complete, these three have tripled up on a batter matchup 3 times – Treinen and Phillips confronted Fernando Tatis Jr. 3 times, and Treinen additionally obtained Luis Arraez thrice. Distinction that with the Yankees: nearer Luke Weaver has confronted three batters 3 times and two batters 4 instances already. Clay Holmes has a four-spot and two threes of his personal. Tommy Kahnle, who solely throws changeups and thus presumably faces a significant familiarity penalty, has as many same-batter-three-times encounters because the Dodgers’ prime trio mixed.

Dave Roberts has additionally been diligent about shifting his matchups round. He has sufficient high-leverage arms that he doesn’t have to assault the highest of the opposing lineup the identical means on daily basis, which has confirmed useful. May a lefty get the underside of the Yankees order by way of Soto earlier than giving technique to a righty? Positive. May Brasier get just a few bites on the apple? Indubitably.

One other factor to regulate: Within the NLCS, Los Angeles went with out Alex Vesia. He strained his again whereas warming up in Sport 5 of the divisional spherical, which left the crew in a bind. He’s their finest lefty reliever, and likewise one among simply two southpaws, together with Anthony Banda, on the playoff roster. That was largely high quality in opposition to the Mets, who’re gentle on lefty energy, however the Yankees have 5 lefties of their on a regular basis lineup, so Vesia’s well being may make an enormous distinction. His restoration has gone properly, and he’s anticipated to make the roster, however any flare-up may give the Dodgers a fair harder puzzle to resolve. The choices behind him – maybe Joe Kelly, in all probability not Brusdar Graterol, perhaps Edgardo Henriquez – have query marks of their very own.

Nonetheless you slice it, Dodgers relievers are going to have a ton of labor to do within the subsequent week. How a lot of that work is excessive leverage – and who will get the majority of it – stays to be seen. If the video games are largely shut, this sequence will look fairly completely different than the previous few they’ve performed.

Anthony Volpe’s Batting Eye
Coming into the playoffs, I anticipated that Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Austin Wells could be a key a part of New York’s supporting forged. They’ve each struggled mightily. Stanton has, in fact, picked up all of that slack; he’s hitting .294/.385/.794 to tempo the crew. However Anthony Volpe has quietly contributed from the underside half of the order by getting on base and mentioning the thunderous coronary heart of the lineup extra steadily.

Volpe isn’t hitting for energy, however he’s walked greater than 20% of the time, resulting in a sterling .459 OBP. That’s powerful to do while you’re one of many hitters folks wish to face. Heck, Soto and Choose are every strolling 17.1% of the time, regardless of one intentional stroll every, they usually’re putting out extra steadily than Volpe in addition.

A few of this comes right down to scattershot pitching on the a part of his opponents. Most of it, although, is as a result of Volpe flat out stopped chasing. He’s swung at 11.7% of pitches exterior the strike zone within the playoffs, simply the bottom mark for anybody with greater than a handful of plate appearances. He’s not swinging very a lot in any respect, the truth is; earlier than reaching two strikes, he’s solely swinging at 20.6% of pitches. Not balls – pitches. He’s seen 58 pitches exterior of the strike zone earlier than two strikes, and he’s swung at two of them.

Clearly, the answer for opposing pitchers is to flood the zone, however even after they do this, Volpe isn’t a sitting duck. With two strikes, he’s been almost good. He has a 90.5% zone swing charge – 19 swings in 21 pitches. He nonetheless solely chases 22.2% of the time. He’s making extra contact general than he made on swings within the strike zone for the yr as a complete. It’s solely been 9 video games, however he’s by no means had a nine-game plate self-discipline stretch this good in his whole main league profession.

Why does that matter? You may consider the Yankees lineup as a fearsome foursome – shout out to Gleyber Torres – after which 5 guys whose job is to get the boppers up once more. Each journey by way of the order is one other stress level for the opposing pitching workers, one other grueling encounter with Soto’s energy/endurance mixture, Choose’s near-peerless thump, and the sheer terror that Stanton places in pitchers with the toughest swings within the recreation. Volpe – and Anthony Rizzo – have been the important thing cogs turning issues over and giving Choose and crew additional alternatives.

Can Volpe stick with it? I imply, in all probability not. It’s the perfect stretch of his profession! Absolutely some quantity of regression is coming. However the extra he battles, the extra he squeezes out walks and extends at-bats and usually performs the pest, the harder issues will likely be for the Dodgers.

Tommy Two Luggage and the Down-Poll Sluggers
The Dodgers lineup doesn’t fairly attain the nosebleed heights of the Yankees lineup on the very prime. In spite of everything, that chart of the perfect three hitters in baseball had two Yankees and just one Dodger. Ohtani additionally leads off, so he bats with runners on base much less steadily than Soto and Choose. Meaning the Dodgers have to generate extra extra-base hits from the no. 5-9 a part of the order than the Yankees do, notably given Freeman’s injury-marred nightmare of a postseason.

Or, perhaps I ought to be saying the no. 4-9 a part of the order. NLCS MVP Tommy Edman has batted fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth, and ninth this month, and he’s performed each heart area and shortstop whereas doing it. He retains shifting up within the lineup as a result of he retains producing. If it looks as if the Dodgers all the time have this sort of man, properly, Enrique Hernández has posted a 145 wRC+ in a platoon position, similar to he’s accomplished for the previous 37 years of Dodgers World Sequence appearances (I’m approximating, I don’t have the precise knowledge in entrance of me). And the hits don’t cease there.

Andy Pages has chipped in two dingers of his personal. Max Muncy is sneakily probably the greatest playoff performers of our era – .235/.404/.481 over 240 plate appearances. Or perhaps I ought to say he’s probably the greatest playoff performers ever – his 146 wRC+ is eleventh all-time amongst batters with 200 or extra plate appearances, sandwiched between Mickey Mantle (147 wRC+) and David Ortiz (144).

It hasn’t all been roses. Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández are speculated to be the supporting gamers, they usually’ve each had lackluster months. However the combination manufacturing has nonetheless been there, with Edman, Enrique Hernández, and Muncy all key elements of it. I anticipate the Yankees to deal with Ohtani and Betts very fastidiously. That’s going to imply a ton of alternatives for Edman and the gang to drive in runs. The genius of the Dodgers lineup is that they by no means want any explicit supporting hitter to click on – they only throw a ton of our bodies on the drawback and determine one will work. That’s going to be put to the check once more within the World Sequence.

Luke Weaver, The Most Vital Yankee
It feels fairly unusual to have somebody named Luke locking issues down for the Evil Empire, however maybe that is what famous baseball fan and voice of Darth Vader James Earl Jones was alluding to all alongside. Weaver has been the reliever this October. He has essentially the most innings pitched. He enters within the highest-leverage spots, in opposition to the perfect batters on the opposite crew, and pitches a number of innings. In a month of reliever blowups, he leads all pitchers in win likelihood added. He has 5 shutdowns and just one meltdown, should you’re into that means of taking a look at bullpens.

That is hardly a fluke; Weaver threw an absurd 84 innings within the common season and took the nearer job due to his phenomenal efficiency. He struck out greater than 30% of opposing hitters, and his changeup could be the easiest in baseball. He’s continued to take action within the playoffs even because the New York rotation has been uneven. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon each look stable, however that’s solely half of a rotation. Weaver has shouldered an enormous workload to assist make up for that shortfall. However – earmuffs, AL Central followers – his postseason efficiency has come in opposition to middling competitors.

The mixture common season wOBA of the batters he’s confronted this October works out to simply about league common, and that’s with three battles in opposition to Bobby Witt Jr. and 4 in opposition to José Ramírez. The Dodgers aren’t nearly league common – they had been the highest hitting crew in baseball this yr. The diploma of problem goes up.

I’m positive the Yankees would love to make use of Weaver in loads of huge spots this sequence. You could possibly think about a seven-game set the place there are three blowouts and he pitches 4 instances, with these 4 appearances roughly figuring out the sequence. That’s much less loopy than it sounds: He’s confronted 38 batters, whereas Choose, for instance, has batted 41 instances. And Weaver’s enjoying time has are available in way more vital conditions. If he’s unhealthy, it will likely be in spots the place the Yankees completely can’t afford slip ups. If he’s good, it’ll be in spots the place the Dodgers desperately want runs.

Any of those 4 areas may decide the winner of the sequence. However in fact, perhaps none of them will. Baseball isn’t Steph Curry and LeBron James going shot-for-shot down the stretch. It isn’t Patrick Mahomes discovering Travis Kelce six instances in a row when the crew wants it most. Baseball isn’t predictable like that. You may’t anticipate David Freese, Steve Pearce, and Jeremy Peña, World Sequence MVPs all. If somebody tells you they know who will decide the end result of this sequence, they’re mistaken. That’s a part of why I like this sport – and why it’s value trying all around the roster for potential difference-makers.