Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner headline the ATP’s Rolex Shanghai Masters preview because the tennis elite collect to high off the precious Asian swing. This yr’s Shanghai Masters is sophisticated, for 2 huge causes.
A cloud hangs over new world primary Sinner due to continued procedural wrangling over a optimistic drug take a look at. The query of a suspension will probably be decided within the coming months. The calm Italian celebrity hasn’t been too bothered by the occasions, however how a lot battle can one man take?
The opposite thriller is a bit more esoteric and includes court docket velocity. Previous to final yr, the Rolex Shanghai Masters had been often called the quickest arduous court docket event on the ATP Tour. Expert servers and guys with brief backswings (or whose backswings that could possibly be adjusted accordingly) excelled right here.
Then a curious flip in 2023. Daniil Medvedev, a former Shanghai champ, recommended that the court docket velocity had slowed down not somewhat– however a lot that it rivaled one of many slowest arduous courts on the ATP Tour: Indian Wells.
Taylor Fritz disagreed, however then turned proper round and misplaced to Diego Scharwartzman within the spherical of 32. Perhaps Meddy had a degree? Hubert Hurcacz beat Andrey Rublev to win the event– two glorious fast-court gamers. So maybe we’re parsing grains of sand right here. Nonetheless, I consider even the notion of court docket velocity can influence participant efficiency.
Medvedev has been enjoying properly, having fun with a deep run on the China Open, so I’m bullish on him. Particularly on condition that nevertheless “gradual” the Shanghai courts would possibly’ve been final yr, annually arduous courts improve marginally in velocity till they’re resurfaced. So I like Meddy’s possibilities. Extra on that beneath.
To the Shanghai Masters preview and draw evaluation.
Shanghai Masters preview: Sinner Quarter
Sinner’s quarter isn’t straightforward, having drawn the 5 seed Medvedev on the backside of this part. My bracket has a rematch of two ascending abilities in Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils. These younger guys simply met in Japan final week, the place Fils received in 3 tight units. I’d give the sting to Shelton resulting from his lefty slice serve, however it’s a choose ‘em match. Then I’ve Sinner enjoying the winner there for a spot within the quarters.
Elsewhere in that part: my darkhorse. Having seen Kei Nishikori’s stable play in Tokyo, and understanding how his recreation is designed to remove time from a floor that doesn’t enable a lot anyway, I like Kei to upset each Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Nevertheless, I believe the run stops with Medvedev, establishing a Sinner-Meddy quarterfinal. There, I believe the burden of the previous months may meet up with Jannik. That’s not a statistical evaluation however purely an instinctual one.
Carlos Alcaraz
The Spanish phenom has a straightforward draw, having gotten “clay court docket Casper” Ruud as his next-best within the quarter. Alcaraz wants the simple glide as a result of he’s performed a ridiculous quantity of tennis because the US Open. That stated, his legs are younger, and I see him easing previous the likes of Ugo Humbert and even Tommy Paul to make the semifinals. There, I really consider the globetrotting will catch as much as Alcaraz. Even the Energizer Bunny is just a person. A person with a candy bass drum and a few sick shades, however nonetheless only a man.
Shanghai Masters preview: Djokovic Quarter
Novak Djokovic may be very a lot an X issue right here. He’s received Shanghai 4 occasions. He’s wholesome and enjoying properly. However his he motivated? He not often lacks for drive when enjoying for nation. However that is simply one other Masters 1000.
The highest of this part of the draw contains Andrey Rublev, Alexei Popyrin and Grigor Dimitrov– all suited to Shanghai. You’ve obtained to suppose one of many three of these guys performs Novak for a spot within the semis. I’m going to reluctantly go together with Rublev. Regardless of a tumultuous yr, Andrey lives for these late-season factors bonanzas. And he’s nonetheless aiming for a spot in ATP Finals Prime 8.
In that potential matchup, the Djokovic Rublev H2H is 5-1 in favor of the GOAT, so let’s not overthink it.
Alexander Zverev
Total on this event, I sense American fatigue. The US Open was such an enormous, grinding celebration for gamers like Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul that I’ve my doubts about their possibilities right here. The exception is Brandon Nakashima whose constant recreation appears to be catching momentum.
I see Nakashima, a proficient spot-server, knocking off Fritz and probably the winner of a Holger Rune-Jiri Lehecka match. Rune remains to be struggling to collect his recreation, so in all probability Lehecka. Then I see Zverev, who has a really easy few rounds, quietly sneaking up on the whole draw.
Zverev serves properly regardless of the court docket velocity, and that is the kind of event he often places away– an enormous trophy however not a Grand Slam. Asia is away from the glare of the tennis season’s thick half. Plus with a stellar Shanghai file of 10-5, Zverev’s consolation stage may peak.
Gamers to Watch:
QF: Medvedev, Alcaraz, Djokovic, Zverev
SF: Medvedev, Zverev
F: Zverev
