Let’s undergo ten statistical factors I’ll observe subsequent season — and so do you have to. I’ll introduce you to those metrics in case you’re unfamiliar with them and clarify why they’ll matter. On the backside, you’ll discover hyperlinks to trace them your self all through the season. With out additional ado, let’s dive in!
Offensive rebounding %
Final season, the Celtics had a 24.9% offensive rebound price, rating twelfth out of 30 groups. Fairly common, proper? Nonetheless, there’s extra to this stat. When Kristaps Porzingis was out, the offensive rebound price jumped to 30.6%, which might’ve made the Celtics one of the best offensive rebounding workforce within the league — higher than the Knicks, who’ve constructed a big a part of their offense round this technique.
This technique has each offensive and defensive penalties. It creates extra possessions, giving the Celtics an opportunity to be much more dominant offensively. Nonetheless, being aggressive on the offensive glass additionally presents potential points.
The larger menace is that this might create extra transition alternatives for opponents. Final season, the Celtics have been one of the best transition protection workforce. In the event that they alter their offensive rebounding method, that might change.
Rim safety metrics
The Celtics’ rim safety was elite final season, confirmed by three key indicators: Defensive Rim Frequency, Defensive Rim Accuracy, and Defensive FT Fee. These metrics encapsulate how nicely a workforce protects the rim. The Celtics ranked third in Defensive Rim Frequency, fifth in Defensive Rim Accuracy, and first in Defensive FT Fee.
Their elite efficiency was closely influenced by Kristaps Porzingis, who acted as a roamer within the paint, enjoying deep drop protection whereas Jrue, Derrick, Jayson, and Jaylen navigated screens. With Kristaps sidelined for months, will the Celtics keep these elite rim safety numbers?
Jayson Tatum’s drives per sport
We’ve lined this in a earlier article, however Jayson Tatum’s driving sport opened up so many nice issues for the Celtics in the course of the NBA Finals. Nonetheless, his drives per sport within the common season have been comparatively low. Final season, his drive quantity was just like Stephen Curry’s. No offense to the best shooter of all time, however Tatum’s drives ought to be extra frequent.
Why? As a result of he’s actually good at it! His effectivity on drives is elite, and his means to get to the free-throw line is spectacular. He’s additionally developed the flexibility to drive and kick in numerous conditions, forcing defenses to make errors. Subsequently, Tatum’s drives per sport might be on the prime of my record subsequent season.
Jaylen Brown’s FTr+ and TS+
Let’s deal with one among Jaylen Brown’s puzzling weaknesses: his means to get to the free-throw line. Final yr, his FTr+ was beneath 100, which means he generates fewer free throws than the typical NBA participant — a big challenge. Free throws are probably the most invaluable makes an attempt in basketball, and as an All-NBA participant with so many bodily benefits, Brown ought to get to the road extra usually than common. Nonetheless, this hasn’t been the case for 2 straight seasons, instantly impacting his total scoring effectivity.
An awesome indicator of scoring effectivity is TS+. Like FTr+, a rating of 100 is league common, whereas 110 means you’re 10% above common. Over the previous two seasons, Brown has been at 100 — proper on the common.
Now, I’m not saying Brown is a median participant. He creates on excessive quantity, principally self-generated pictures. However to grow to be a extra environment friendly offensive engine, he must discover a manner to attract extra fouls and get to the road.
Derrick White’s USG% and True Taking pictures %
As Oliver Fox stated, Derrick White is ideal. With an 18.6% utilization price and 61.1% true capturing share, he’s probably the most environment friendly guards within the league. But, he does it at a median quantity. At 30, White is at a crossroads. Will he stay one of many league’s greatest function gamers, or will he tackle extra?
There are indicators he might tackle a much bigger function. His pull-up numbers have elevated, alongside together with his driving. His self-creation has improved whereas sustaining excessive effectivity. Can he take the following step and have a much bigger quantity?
Jrue Vacation’s catch-and-shoot 3-point makes an attempt
As talked about in my earlier article, Jrue Vacation has transitioned from pull-up threes to catch-and-shoot threes. A number of questions linger round this evolution. Was it momentary? Can he grow to be an excellent larger catch-and-shoot menace? What degree of effectivity can he attain with these pictures?
Sam Hauser’s AST:Usg
If you happen to’re unfamiliar with AST:Usg, it measures a participant’s share of creation for others. Sam Hauser has been low on this metric all through his profession, primarily serving as a finisher with out a lot passing accountability.
Nonetheless, if he needs to extend his minutes, including a layer of playmaking would possibly assist. Joe Mazzulla values gamers who can each area the ground but in addition play inside it. If Hauser can enhance his passing, he may benefit from the very spacing he creates — a basketball virtuous circle.
Payton Pritchard’s Rim Frequency and Effectivity
Final yr, Payton Pritchard made headlines with half-court pictures. What impressed me extra, although, was his enchancment on the rim. With 74% rim effectivity, Pritchard was the second best level guard on the rim, behind solely Luka Doncic. In fact, the quantity isn’t the identical, but when Pritchard can keep this effectivity with a better quantity, it might open up so much for him and the Celtics bench.
Xavier Tillman’s STL% and BLK%
When Brad Stevens traded for Xavier Tillman, the previous Grizzly was one of many few NBA gamers with a steal price and block price above 2.5%. The Celtics weren’t sturdy in these areas final season — not as a consequence of lack of expertise, however as a consequence of a conservative, drop-coverage method. With Porzingis out, might Tillman’s means to generate turnovers and block pictures assist enhance the Celtics’ transition sport?
Al Horford’s minutes
Final however not least: Uncle Al’s minutes. Final season, when the Celtics wanted him most, Horford delivered on the largest stage—because of enjoying simply 26 minutes per sport in the course of the common season, permitting him to play large minutes when it mattered. With Kristaps Porzingis out, how a lot will the Celtics be capable of defend Horford’s outdated however sturdy legs?
Beneath are hyperlinks the place you may monitor the info talked about, season-long:
